Question:

Have the BDB and electricity company recapitalisation actually taken place yet?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: Government expects 3.0% of GDP budget deficit in 2025

Answer:

The government adopted two decrees approving the allocation of BGN 4bn to raise the capital of the Bulgarian Development Bank (BDB) and BGN 1.5bn for Bulgarian Energy Holding (BEH) on Aug 27.

In those decrees, it mentioned that the sums were to be allocated from the central budget to the budgets of the finance ministry (which is in charge of BDB) and the energy ministry (in charge of BEH). Even after the capital increase of the two companies, those funds were planned to stay at the ministries' accounts and will be periodically transferred to BDB and BEH only upon receipt of motivated requests of the companies for funding of payments related to their operations, according to the texts in the decrees. The implementation of the decrees was assigned to the finance and energy ministers, respectively.

Question:

What were the corresponding increases last year?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: Motorway tolls to rise again in 2026

Answer:

Motorway tolls increased between 5% and 7.4% as of the beginning of 2025, with the average falling around 6%.

Question:

Isn't this price cut impacting immediately those on variable rates?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: E.ON energy price cut

Answer:

Unfortunately, this remains unclear, and energy suppliers rarely elaborate. What E.ON said is that the change will impact about 800,000 customers, so we assume they mean those on variable rates, as well as those whose fixed price plans expire soon. They could mean something different, but unfortunately the occasions when a clear distinction is made are very rare. Thus, judgment calls need to be made often to allow any estimate of the impact on CPI inflation.

Question:

Does this mean a 10% cut in the final retail price consumers pay (so including regulated, non-regulated and tax components) or is it just a 10% cut in the price of the energy (excluding the regulated components and tax)?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: E.ON to lower retail energy prices by 10% as of 2026

Answer:

These announcements always refer to the final price that a consumer will pay, including the regulated component and taxes. It is why we mentioned it doesn't reflect the potential removal of the renewable energy surcharge, which will bring down energy prices even more. Namely, if the surcharge is removed, it will lead to a 15% cut to the regulated component, as estimated by both ANO and the energy regulator.

Question:

Can you please quickly remind me where the government now expects the 2025 budget deficit? I saw comments from Nagy in September about 4-4.5%. Have there been any more updates?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: Budget deficit expands by 26.9% y/y to HUF 3,328.7bn in Jan-Sep

Answer:

The latest is 4.2-4.3% of GDP. Hungary's latest notification to Eurostat from Oct 9 puts the deficit at HUF 3,707.264bn and GDP - at HUF 87,110.474bn, translating into deficit ratio of 4.2558%.

Question:

Can you provide data on revenues and expenditure for the sovereign fund, Baiterek, and Samruk-Kazyna?

Answer:

The FinMin publishes data on the sovereign fund's revenue flows and expenditure. The most recent publication (end-Sep) is available here. Baiterek and Samruk-Kazyna publish their own reports. Here is Baiterek's H1 financial statement. The one by Samruk-Kazyna can be seen here.

Question:

Do I read the trend from the graph correctly that this 34% y/y growth is not completely out of line vs previous months?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: Value of mortgage inquiries rises 34.3% y/y in October

Answer:

Yes, it looks like it is not out of line with prior months, but unfortunately they don't publish a longer series. If I get some time today, I'm going to try to build at least a short time series to help comparisons going forward.

Question:

How significant is this hike in CIT with respect to government financing needs? Will this have a meaningful effect on issuance?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: Banks' net profits rise 16% y/y to PLN 36.1bn in Jan-Sep-25

Answer:

The CIT hike for banks is to bring in about PLN 7bn, or about 15-20% of the 2024 profit and about the same amount of this year's profit. For public finances, it is an important total, but one shouldn't exaggerate as it is only about 0.2% of GDP. Gross financing needs are to be some PLN 689bn in 2026, and so the CIT hike is only about 1% of that.

Still, the CIT hike is part of a series of moves, including the planned increase of the excise tax on alcohol (to raise PLN 1.7bn). Altogether there is probably about a PLN 10bn boost. The FinMin is also not valorising the tax thresholds again, and that move itself raises about PLN 12bn. The tobacco excise was hiked in 2025 and will be hiked further in 2026 (raising PLN 4bn). So, there are a series of moves designed to help bring the deficit down.

There is, as you might have seen, still some threat that President Nawrocki will veto the new moves, such as the CIT hike on banks or the higher alcohol excise. I imagine the CIT hike is safe, but the alcohol one might be at risk.

Question: How's the real wage growth calculated here? is it provided by the stats authorities or you have adjusted for the spot headline CPI?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: Wage growth keeps easing to 4.4% y/y in Aug, lowest rise in more than five years

Answer: It is not provided by the state's statistical institute. We calculate it by deflating the nominal wage growth with the headline CPI for the relevant period.

Question:

Is the data available for the stock of T-bills held by foreigners in Turkey?

Answer:

Please find the relevant series in the attached file. It can be downloaded from this link. Backward series are available at the CBT's EVDS under 'securities statistics' tab.

Question:

You note that the government is targeting a fiscal deficit of 7.3% of GDP this FY. The IMF is forecasting -12.4% - is it usual to have such a wide discrepancy given that Egypt is in an IMF programme?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: Budget deficit widens 137% y/y to EGP 1.18tn in Jul-May, equals -6.9% of GDP

Answer:

I assume you refer to the latest IMF Fiscal Monitor from October - the fiscal deficit projections in these reports have repeatedly shown significant discrepancies with both government targets and other IMF reports. For example, in its Article IV/ Fourth review report published in July, the IMF forecasts a fiscal deficit of 8.8% of GDP in 2025/26. However, in that report, the IMF commented on the discrepancy (page 47):

Through FY2023/24, data is shown as per the authorities' presentation, whereby interest does not include accrued interest expense on T-bills and zero coupon bonds, which is instead included in non-deficit debt creating flows. Beginning in FY2024/25, interest is defined as in GFSM 2014, and it includes accrued interest expense. Accrued interest expense is not included in the overall balance through FY2023/24, while it is included in the overall balance beginning in FY2024/25.

The Fiscal Monitor, meanwhile, only says that Fiscal projections are mainly based on budget sector operations. Projections are based on the budget for FY2024/25 and the IMF's macroeconomic outlook.

For comparison, rating agency Fitch sees the fiscal deficit at 7.5% of GDP in 2025/26, and S&P forecasts a -7.1% - both forecasts were made last month and are closer to the government's target, than to the IMF's Fiscal Monitor projection.

In other words, I am not sure why the Fiscal Monitor projections diverge so much, but it seems that most analysts expect that the deficit would be around 7% of GDP this FY.

Question:

Have you got data on insurance rates on shipping through the Suez Canal?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: Transit volume across Suez Canal edge down 0.8% m/m in October - IMF's PortWatch

Answer:

We could not find recent insurance rates, but our guess is that any decrease - if it exists - would be marginal. We think it all comes down to how sustainable the Israel-Hamas peace deal is. Despite some initial progress, the deal appears fragile at the moment. Even if it holds, however, most analysts do not expect a meaningful recovery in Suez Canal traffic for at least the next 4-5 months.

Question:

Do you have an official source (IMF) mentioning those values of privatization earnings?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: Government plans to float 30-40% of Gabal El Zeit wind farm on EGX by end-2025

Answer:

We took the numbers from the IMF's Article IV & Fourth Review report that was published in July (here), page 96. We have just updated the Source field in our table, so it should be clearer.

Question:

Do you have the latest fiscal execution numbers - have the authorities issued less as they are below net spending targets ?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: Government falls short of T-bill target as yields edge higher

Answer:

The latest execution data is for Jan-Jun. The government says in the report that Net Domestic Borrowing is at GHS 13.1bn, which is significantly below the GHS 18.7bn target. Spending outturn was reported at GHS 109.7bn against a GHS 128bn commitment in H1. This suggests that spending was indeed contained which was attributable to slower capital project execution as well as lower interest payments due to falling T-bill yields and lower-than-planned borrowing.

Additionally, the government is still forced to rely primarily on short-term domestic borrowing. The government reported total issuance proceeds (T-bills and bonds) of GHS 147bn in H1 out which GHS 138bn covered maturities and the remaining GHS 8bn represented fresh borrowing for deficit financing.

Question:

Are the reserves published in the chart the 30-day average published daily by the central bank? If there are the actual end of month values, would you mind sharing the link to the source?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: Next phase of economic reforms aims for 7% growth - FinMin

Answer:

Yes, this is the 30-day moving average published daily by the CBN, which can be found here.

Question:

Do you think the MTBPS will be much of a market event?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: MTBPS preview: Fiscal consolidation holds despite weak growth

Answer:

Yes, the MTBPS is usually very closely watched and there is potential for a move. This year there is suspense around the potential announcement of a new inflation target. If the Treasury adopts the lower target officially, this could be a boost for local assets in the long run, entrenching expectations and providing support for investment and growth. However, it could also mean that the SARB can reduce the policy rate in November, counting on better anchoring from coordinated messaging in the budget and the MPC, which could undermine the rand in the short-term. Of course, the rand is strongly dependent on the external drivers and dollar strength

Question:

Do you know what the latest gross reserves are and the latest unencumbered reserve assets ?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: IMF staff conclude visit for sixth programme review

Answer:

Based on the latest Bank of Zambia Statistics Fortnightly (Vol. 32, Issue No. 21), Gross international reserves (closing) were USD 4,840.90mn as at 31 Jul (Table 04, p. 5). The Stat Fortnightly does not publish a separate line labelled "unencumbered reserve assets" as the BoZ headline "International Reserves" series is the operative gross reserves figure and is normally used as the usable reserve measure. Please note that the BoZ FX numbers are published with a 2+ month lag. You can download a copy of the latest fortnightly statistics here.

For the IMF programme reporting, the Fund reported "reserve assets" (i.e., unencumbered reserve assets) which the Fund defines as "total reserves assets are defined as unencumbered reserves, including the position in the Fund" were valued at USD 5,484.0mn from the IMF 5th review staff report in July based on the 4th ECF review figures, Table 6a on page 40 of the funds report here.

Question:

"Thailand plans loans buyback of B122bn to ease household debt woes" - how will this be funded?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: Press Mood of the Day

Answer:

The funding [of the first phase as I understand it] will be from the remaining THB 26bn of the "Khun Soo Rao Chuay" (You Fight, We Help) debt relief scheme of the government, the Bangkok Post reported on Tuesday. The URL of the article is: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/3130726/new-plan-aims-to-save-indebted-thais

The new programme targets borrowers with total debt of less than THB 100,000 per person and classified as NPLs. There are 3.5mn such individuals with 4.76mn accounts and a total outstanding debt of about THB 122bn. The NPLs will be transferred to the state-owned asset management companies (AMCs) Ari AMC and Sukhumvit Asset Management (SAM).

The first phase envisages transferring debts worth THB 43.6bn to SAM. These include 2.56mn NPL accounts from commercial banks owed by about 1.25mn debtors. Some 790,000 accounts from specialised financial institutions (SFIs) will be transferred to Ari AMC. These accounts amount to a total of THB 18.8bn owed by about 700,000 borrowers.

The remaining debt comprises retail borrowings from non-bank institutions and will be tackled in the next phase.