EmergingMarketWatch coverage of Egypt will be limited on 04 Sep 2025 due to a public holiday.

Egypt's chemical exports reach USD 5.3bn in seven months (Sada Elbalad English)

Egypt welcomes Belgium's plans to recognize Palestinian state (Egypt Today)

Egypt, Bahrain forge stronger ties with 8 new MoUs (Egypt Today)

Egypt secures 9th global spot leads Africa in attracting foreign investments (Egypt Today)

More than 53mn Egyptians now have active financial accounts (Egypt Today)

• Bahraini investments in Egypt are valued at USD 450mn

Non-oil trade between Egypt and Bahrain reached USD 460.5mn in 2024, with Bahraini investments in Egypt valued at USD 450mn in 2024, according to the Emirates News Agency (WAM).

Here is additional information about the economic relations between the two countries:

In 2025, Egypt and Bahrain signed a series of trade and cooperation agreements across more than 10 sectors during a high-level visit by Bahrain's Crown Prince to Egypt. The agreements include:

• MoU between Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA) and Egyptalum to explore building an alumina refinery in Egypt
  
• MoU on investment cooperation between Bahrain Economic Development Board and Egypt's General Authority for Investment and Free Zones
  
• Strategic cooperation MoU between Bahrain International Exhibitions Center and Egypt's General Authority for Exhibitions and Conferences
  
• Mutual recognition agreement on the Authorized Economic Operator program for customs cooperation
  
• MoU on tourism collaboration between the Ministries of Tourism in Bahrain and Egypt
  
• MoU between Bahrain Authority for Culture and Antiquities and Egypt's Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities on cultural heritage
  
• MoU on cooperation in competition protection
  
• Technical cooperation and capacity building MoU on sustainable development
  
• MoU between the Ministries of Labor in Bahrain and Egypt on labor and human resources
  
• MoU to establish a joint urban planning council
  
• MoU to establish a Bahraini-Egyptian youth council
  
• MoU inviting Egyptian companies to participate in Bahrain's government land development projects
  
• MoU on social insurance and pensions
  
• MoU on cooperation in social development

It should be noted that Egypt and Bahrain are very different countries.

Egypt's population is 117mn, while Bahrain has just 1.5mn people. Similarly, Egypt's GDP is USD 350bn, while Bahrain's GDP is USD 48bn. However, Bahrain is considerably wealthier when comparing GDP per capita and average salaries.

• European Commission to decide by Dec 2 whether to allow deal

EU antitrust regulators are set to pause their investigation into the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) proposed EUR 14.7bn (USD 17.1bn) purchase of German chemicals company Covestro, according to Reuters. The temporary halt will give the European Commission more time to gather information on the deal.

The European Commission is the executive arm of the European Union and is politically independent and responsible for proposing new European legislation. The European Commission said on July 28 that it has preliminary concerns about whether state-owned ADNOC and Covestro might receive foreign subsidies distorting the EU market.

ADNOC agreed to buy Covestro in 2024. The European Commission opened an investigationinto the deal in July, citing concerns about subsidies granted by the UAE, including an unlimited guarantee as well as a committed capital increase by ADNOC into Covestro.

The European Commission has set a Dec 2 deadline for its decision whether it will allow the deal to proceed.

• Funds target 764,205 vulnerable people in the Northeast and Northwest regions
• Earlier in 2025, WFP warned of suspending aid due to USD 130mn funding shortfall

The United States government committed USD 32.5mn to the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) to provide food and nutrition assistance for people affected by conflict in Nigeria. According to a statement from the US embassy in Abuja on Wednesday (Sep 3), the funds will allow the WFP to support about 764,205 vulnerable individuals in the Northeast and Northwest, which are regions heavily impacted by insecurity and displacement. Earlier in the year, the WFP had warned that it would have to suspend emergency food and nutrition aid for 1.3 million people in Northeast Nigeria due to a USD 130mn funding shortfall.

The US embassy said this USD 32.5mn intervention builds on its broader support for Nigeria's food security over the years. The funding will cover general food distributions and targeted nutritional support that includes electronic food vouchers for 41,569 pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls as well as 43,235 children. Nearly 31 million people across the country are facing acute food insecurity, with over 300,000 children at risk of severe malnutrition.

• Revenue rose 40.5% y/y to NGN 20.59tn between Jan and Aug 2025
• Non-oil inflows contributed NGN 15.69tn to the total
• Presidency described this as a clear shift away from crude oil dependency

According to a statement from the presidency on Wednesday (Sep 3), government revenue rose sharply in 2025 and was driven mainly by non-oil inflows. Between January and August, total collections reached NGN 20.59tn which is a 40.5% increase compared with NGN 14.6tn during the same period in 2024. Non-oil revenue accounted for NGN 15.69tn, representing 76% of the total. Presidential spokesperson Bayo Onanuga said this shows a clear shift away from crude oil dependence. He described the revenue trend as a "watershed moment" and attributed the gains to reforms, compliance improvements and digitisation.

The presidency denied claims that government is overstating revenue achievements. On Tuesday, Tinubu had said Nigeria already met its 2025 revenue target ahead of schedule and is no longer borrowing from local banks to fund the budget. The presidency's statement on Wednesday clarified that overall revenue collections are ahead of pro-rata expectations but final validation of the 2025 performance will be provided by the Budget Office at year-end. We note that the government has received criticism for failing to publish budget progress reports throughout the year, instead choosing to rely on press briefings and statements.

Customs and tax agencies also surpassed targets according to the statement, with the Nigeria Customs Service collecting NGN 3.68tn in the first half of the year. The agency surpassed its target by NGN 390bn due to automation and tighter enforcement. The presidency also highlighted a spillover effect at state and local government levels, where allocations crossed NGN 2tn for the first time in July which gave subnational governments more resources for infrastructure and social services. Oil revenues remain weak due to low crude prices and unmet production targets but the presidency said the priority now is to channel non-oil gains into real benefits for Nigerians through jobs and food security.

Non-oil revenue jumps 40% to N20.6tn - Presidency (Punch)

My reforms have restored Nigeria's global respect - Tinubu (Punch)

Security concerns behind visa cancellations for Nigerians, others - US (Punch)

Insecurity: Tinubu Pushes for State Police, Hails Civilian JTF (ThisDay)

Tinubu Orders SGF To Issue Circular On Health Insurance In MDAs (ThisDay)

Nigeria, Poland Deepen Trade Ties With Inaugural Economic Forum In Lagos (ThisDay)

FG, nurses union reach fresh agreement on service scheme, reserve 60% job quota (Nairametrics)

Standard Bank revises Naira outlook, projects N1,585.5/$1 by end of 2025 (Nairametrics)

US commits $32.5m to support food security in Nigeria (Nairametrics)

• Regulations ban automatic lending and abusive recovery practices
• Rules impose sanctions of up to NGN 100mn for non-compliant lenders
• They apply to all unsecured consumer lending via electronic and online platforms

The Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) launched a new set of regulations on Wednesday (Sep 3) to curb widespread abuses in Nigeria's digital lending sector. The 2025 Digital, Electronic, Online or Non-Traditional Consumer Lending Regulations introduces strict oversight of Nigeria's fast-growing digital lending industry, with sanctions of up to NGN 100mn or 1% of turnover for non-compliant operators. The regulations apply to all unsecured consumer lending through electronic, online, mobile or other non-traditional platforms. The move comes after widespread complaints from Nigerians about harassment, privacy breaches, abusive loan recovery practices and exploitative interest rates associated with unregulated digital lenders.

The FCCPC said the new rules aim to protect consumer rights while ensuring fair and responsible lending practices. According to FCCPC executive vice chairman Tunji Bello, the regulations clearly distinguish between innovation and consumer exploitation. The framework requires lenders to register with the FCCPC and adhere to transparent loan terms. It also bans automatic lending and sets rules on data privacy and fair interest rates. Directors of offending firms may face disqualification of up to five years.

• Appointment of Shmuel Revel sparks fresh protests in Manama

Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani has received the credentials of Israel's new ambassador to Manama, Shmuel "Sammy" Revel, the state-run Bahrain News Agency reported. Al Zayani welcomed Revel and stressed the importance of supporting regional peace and stability. Revel, Israel's second envoy to Bahrain, previously served as ambassador to Cyprus and as a Foreign Ministry envoy for energy. He replaces Eitan Na'eh, who concluded his post last week.

We recall that Bahrain normalized ties with Israel in 2020 under the US-brokered Abraham Accords, but the relationship has faced turbulence since the Israel-Gaza war. After Hamas's October 7 attack, Bahrain's parliament announced it had recalled its envoy and suspended economic ties with Israel, though the government did not confirm the measures and Israeli officials denied receiving formal notice.

The move to appoint a new envoy has reignited domestic opposition. Protests broke out in Manama, with demonstrators denouncing normalization and expressing solidarity with Gaza. Bahrain, which hosts the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, continues to balance regional security commitments with strong public resistance to ties with Israel.

A two-state solution is still possible - just look back at the 1947 partition plan (Haaretz)

Israel rejects [Palestinian militant group] Hamas' latest response to Gaza cease-fire deal: ''more spin that contains nothing new'' (Haaretz)

[PM Benjamin] Netanyahu government scrambles after bid to oust attorney-general hits inevitable impasse (Haaretz)

[Palestinian militant group] Hamas reiterates readiness for a full deal; [Defense Minister Israel] Katz decries statement as empty words (Jerusalem Post)

[US President Donald] Trump: ''Immediately give back all 20 hostages'' (Jerusalem Post)

Israeli fashion brand launches campaign about hunger in Gaza: 'We cannot use food as weapons' (Jerusalem Post)

The surge in bond issuance brings a senior housing facility for the ultra-Orthodox population to the stock market (Calcalist)

[PM Benjamin] Netanyahu will meet with ultra-Orthodox MKs to get them to support increasing the defense budget (TheMarker)

Shooting in the dark: Expanding the war in Gaza could boost the deficit (TheMarker)

More real estate investors sell their apartments at a loss: Which city disappointed them the most? (Globes)

The giant plan that will change Tel Aviv has been approved for submission. All the details (Globes)

• Increase related to completion of deliveries halted during war with Iran in June
• Toyota overtakes Hyundai as leader on delivery table in Jan-Aug with 12.2% market share

New car deliveries increased by 21.1% y/y in August after declining by 1.3% y/y in the previous month, according to data of the car importers' association published by local media. The increase was related to the completion of deliveries that were halted during the war with Iran in June. The market remains the rise this year with deliveries up by 4.5% y/y in Jan-Aug. We note that new car deliveries had posted strong increases almost in all months since September 2024.

Hyundai lost the top position on the delivery table in Jan-Aug but kept the second spot after grabbing 12.0% of the market. Toyota climbed to the top spot and its market share was slightly higher at 12.2% of all deliveries in Jan-Aug. Kia was third with 8.6% market share. Deliveries of new electric vehicles accounted for about 17.8% of all deliveries in the period, and this share has been stable since the year started but is down from over 24% a year ago.

• Monetary policy to depend on the convergence of inflation with the target range
• MPC most likely to delay any start in the monetary easing for later this year in Q4

The decision for maintaining the policy rate at 4.50% on Jul 7 was taken unanimously, according to the minutes of the meeting published today (Sep 3). All six MPC members took part in the voting. The rate setters commented that the Bank of Israel's monetary policy will depend on the convergence of the inflation with the target range, the stability of the financial markets, the economic activity and the government's fiscal policy amid the geopolitical uncertainties. The discussions were centred around the impact of the geopolitical environment on the economy and the economic developments. They also focused on the inflation and inflation expectations, the level of economic activity and the key developments in the foreign exchange market, the financial markets, the labour market, the housing market, the global economy and the fiscal sector. The rate setters also took into account the impact of the war against Iran in June on the recovery of the economic activity.

To remind, we think that the MPC will likely delay any start in the monetary easing for later in the year, most likely in Q4. Overall, we think that the rate-setters would not take a bold decision to start lowering the policy rate until the inflation enters the 1-3% target range, despite some expectations are that a cut might be made in September. Inflation slowed down to 3.1% y/y in July, but although it was lower than market expectations, it has remained above the target range for more than a year already. At the same time, the economy contracted in Q2 in a negative surprise to the markets, but we think that this was largely to the war with Iran and a recovery has already started as indicated by some high-frequency indicators. Thus, with expectations for no significant deterioration in economic activity, the BoI might take its time and make sure that inflation has been entrenched within the target interval before making any move. The next monetary policy decision is expected to take place on Sep 29.

• Domestic demand drives modest expansion in business activity
• Optimism improves slightly as private sector companies eye better market conditions

Lebanon's private sector Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.3 in August, up from 48.9 in July, according to the latest S&P Global PMI report released on Sep 3. The index is surpassing the 50.0 no-change threshold and marking the first improvement in private sector operating conditions since February.

During the latest survey period, Lebanese private sector companies experienced an increase in new business volumes. While the expansion was modest, it represented the first growth in six months. The upturn was primarily driven by domestic demand, as new export sales continued to decline. Nevertheless, the contraction in exports eased slightly, marking the softest decline over the current six-month sequence.

With growing demand, private sector companies increased their output levels midway through the third quarter. August's rise in business activity mirrored the trend in new orders, representing the first expansion since February.

The influx of new work exerted pressure on operating capacities, reflected in a rise in backlogs - the first increase in three months. Although the accumulation was modest, it was the fastest observed in six months. Despite these capacity pressures, companies largely relied on existing staff to meet additional demand, leaving employment levels broadly unchanged since July.

Looking ahead, private sector firms remained cautious about prospects for the coming year. However, the degree of pessimism was notably lower than in June and July, with some companies expressing hopes for an improvement in market conditions.

• Key automotive sector expects further decline in output

Industrial firms expect an overall rise in manufacturing output, driven by growth in food, chemical, according to the business confidence survey by the statistical office HCP. However, expectations of the key automotive sector are negative along with those in non-metallic mineral products, and electrical equipment where production is expected to decline as well. Employment in manufacturing is projected to remain stable. In extractive industries, production is set to increase, mainly from phosphates, with workforce levels steady. Energy production should rise due to electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning output, but employment is expected to fall. Environmental industry output and employment are expected to remain stable.

In construction, overall activity is anticipated to grow, led by civil engineering and specialized construction, while building construction is expected to decline. This sector is likely to see a reduction in employment.

The GDP growth has reached 4.6% y/y in Q2, keeping a strong pace after 4.8% y/y growth in Q1, according to the flash estimate of the statistical office HCP. Detailed showed momended was driven by the continued strength of services, as well as by the sustained performance of the construction, mining, and agriculture sectors. The extractive sector benefited from strong international demand for raw phosphate, boosting exports amid continued high global fertilizer prices. Construction activity rose by 6.8%, driven by major infrastructure projects. Agriculture continued growing at 4.7% y/y in Q2, contributing 0.5pps to overall growth. Overall, GVA across all sectors grew by 4.5% y/y, or at about the same pace as in Q1. Looking ahead to Q3 2025, the HCP projects mild deceleration with GDP growth at 4.4% y/y in Q3. Nonetheless it mentions some downside risks related to uncertainties, primarily related to external demand, the weakness of which could hamper the performance of certain export-oriented sectors.

• Real estate and manufacturing dominated, jointly absorb over 90% of FDI inflows

The the UAE emerged as the largest investor last year, accounting for 18.9% of net inflows to Morocco, according to 2024 annual BoP report released by the Foreign Exchange Office. Emirati FDI reached MAD 3.1bn (USD 310mn), a 57.8% rise from the previous year. Germany followed with MAD 2.1bn, up from MAD 1.4bn, while China ranked third at MAD 2.05bn. Sectorally, real estate and manufacturing dominated, jointly absorbing over 90% of FDI inflows to real estate reached MAD 7.4bn, representing 45.4% of total net FDI, closely followed by manufacturing industries with MAD 7.4bn (45.2%).

In 2024, FDI inflows in Morocco reached MAD 43.8bn, up from MAD 39.7bn the previous year, marking a 10.2% increase y/y. Meanwhile, FDI outflows fell 5.3% (-MAD 1.6bn), totaling MAD 27.5bn in 2024.Overall, net FDI flows increased by MAD 5.6bn to MAD 16.3bn, supported by a near fourfold jump in debt instrument flows and a 14.9% rise in equity inflows, despite a decline in reinvested earnings.

• Train to increase Oman's LNG production capacity to 15.2mn tons per year
• LNG train to be ready by 2029

Oman moving forward with plans to build a fourth LNG train at its Qalhat LNG complex in Sur, according to news reports. The fourth train will increase the country's LNG production capacity from 11.4mn tons per year to 15.2mn tons per year. The new train will have a capacity of 3.8mn tons annually and is targeted for commissioning in 2029.

An LNG train refers to a set of compressors and equipment used in an industrial process to convert natural gas into LNG. The process involves treating the natural gas to remove impurities, compressing it, and then cooling it through cryogenic refrigeration to transform the gas into liquid form at about -162°C (-260°F). This liquefaction process makes the gas easier to transport and store because LNG takes up about 1/600th the volume of natural gas in its gaseous state.

OQ Exploration and Production (OQEP), a subsidiary of state-owned energy company OQ, is working to secure sufficient upstream gas feedstock, primarily from Block 61 and other new discoveries, to support the new train.

The project is currently in the engineering and tendering stages, with front-end engineering design (FEED) contracts awarded, and major international contractors interested in the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) phase. The final investment decision (FID) for the project is expected in early 2026.

Oman's Minister of Energy emphasizes securing gas feedstock without government intervention as crucial to the project's success. The government is talking with existing natural gas producers in Oman like BP, Shell, and Total for partnership and gas supply.

The Qalhat LNG complex, located near Sur, is an LNG production and export facility. The complex currently has three operational LNG trains. Sur is a coastal city, located on the north-eastern coast of Oman along the Gulf of Oman. Sur has historically been an important port connecting Oman with the Indian subcontinent and East Africa.

• Two countries want to improve economic relations

Oman and Iraq signed two agreements and 24 memoranda of understanding (MoUs) to enhance cooperation between the two countries across various sectors, according to the Oman News Agency. The two agreements signed by both parties pertain to the mutual visa waiver for holders of diplomatic, special, and service passports, as well as the avoidance of double taxation and prevention of tax evasion on income and capital.

Meanwhile, the MoUs cover a wide range of areas, including youth and sports; judicial and legal affairs; tourism; historical documentation and records management; information exchange and cooperation in the capital market sector; communications; radio and television broadcasting; implementation of training programs in management and leadership development; banking oversight and financial stability; housing and urban planning; higher education and research; educational fields; exchange of expertise and promotion of competition and anti-monopoly measures; development of trade exchanges and export promotion.

Additionally, the MoUs encompass intellectual property, industry, energy, localization of defence industries, transport and logistics, stock exchange, oil storage, marketing of Iraqi crude oil, and chambers of commerce, as well as an MoU in the field of planning, development, and implementation of smart cities.

We remind that trade between Oman and Iraq increased 1% y/y to OMR 239mn (USD 622mn) during the first half of 2025. The two countries are linked by several agreements, most notably the Economic and Trade Cooperation Agreement, the Air Services Agreement, and an agreement to establish free trade zone between both countries.

By way of background, the population of Oman is 5.3mn and its GDP is USD 110bn. The population of Iraq is 47mn and its GDP is USD 390bn.

• Anthropic's valuation rises to USD 183bn

The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), the country's sovereign wealth fund, has invested in the US artificial intelligence company Anthropic as part of a record USD 13bn Series F funding round. QIA's stake in the round was not publicly disclosed.

QIA joins investors in this fundraising round including Altimeter, Baillie Gifford, BlackRock, Blackstone, Coatue, D1 Capital, General Atlantic, General Catalyst, GIC, Growth Equity at Goldman Sachs Alternatives, Insight Partners, Jane Street, Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, T. Rowe Price Associates, T. Rowe Price Investment Management, TPG, WCM Investment Management, and XN.

This fundraising round brings Anthropic's valuation to USD 183bn.

QIA's investment in Anthropic is part of its transformation of its USD 524 billion portfolio, focusing on generative AI and related technologies with a long-term perspective.

• Employment rises at record pace
• Outlook for remaining 12 months becomes more optimistic

The Qatar Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 51.4 in July to 51.9 in August, according to S&P Global. The rate of growth that was above the average for the past 12 months (51.7) but slightly below the long-run trend since 2017 (52.2).

Data Download

The increase in the headline figure in August mainly reflected a record rise in employment and a slower decline in new orders.

Qatari non-energy firms registered the fastest rate of job creation in the survey history in August. Companies reported recruitment drives in sales, marketing, operations and management. Workforces rose rapidly in all four monitored sectors, with record increases seen in manufacturing and construction.

The record increase in employment in the non-energy private sector in August reflected a brighter business outlook.

To retain and attract workers, Qatari companies continued to raise wages in August. The overall rate of inflation in staff costs eased to a three-month low, but remained among the highest in the survey history.

Looking forward, companies' expectations for business activity over the next 12 months were the strongest since January, and greater than the average since the survey began in April 2017. Survey respondents reported a number of factors underpinning positive forecasts, including market expansion, rising population, real estate growth, a recovery in construction and tourism.

Saudi Arabia, UK announce $445m economic partnership (Arab News)

Riyadh and Jeddah office rents surge as Saudi vacancies hit record lows (Arabian Business)

Tahaluf events drive $17.6bn boost to Saudi economy (AGBI)

Saudi Arabia FDI inflows jump 24 per cent to USD 32bn in 2024 (Arabian Business)

EmergingMarketWatch coverage of Tunisia will be limited on Sep 4 due to a public holiday.

• Lawmakers accuse government of failing to submit 2026 budget assumptions and mid-2025 budget execution report
• Finance minister skipped a promised July hearing on 2025 budget implementation
• Deputies highlight missing decrees from the 2025 Finance Act and question credibility of official GDP growth data
• Standoff threatens to delay adoption of the 2026 budget and deepen fiscal and political strains

The Finance and Budget Committee of Tunisia's Assembly of People's Representatives (ARP) announced on Monday (Sep 1) that it will not examine the government's draft 2026 Finance Bill until the government remedies key violations it committed. The decision underscores growing tension between the legislative and executive branches over adherence to budgetary rules, which lawmakers describe as the "financial constitution of the state."

The lawmakers accuse the government of breaching Article 40 and Article 62 of the Organic Budget Law 2019. Article 40 requires the government to submit to parliament, by the end of July each year, the economic assumptions and broad policy guidelines underpinning the upcoming year's budget. Deputies argue that this obligation gives the ARP an explicit role in shaping fiscal policy before the draft law is tabled. Article 62, meanwhile, compels the government to present a mid-year report on the execution of the current budget, allowing legislators to exercise their oversight role during implementation. The government reneged on both obligations in 2025, according to the committee.

Lawmakers also voiced frustration with the finance minister's handling of parliamentary oversight. In July, the committee had requested a hearing with the minister to review progress on implementing the 2025 budget and to discuss potential adjustments in the 2026 draft bill. While the previous finance minister had agreed to such consultations, the current minister postponed the session, pledging to hold it at the end of July but it never took place. Deputies denounced this as a breach of the principle of state continuity and as further evidence of disregard for the legislature's prerogatives.

Beyond procedural grievances, the committee raised broader concerns about Tunisia's fiscal governance. Members highlighted the absence of implementing decrees for several measures approved under the 2025 Finance Act, and they demanded clarification on how allocated funds are being spent. Deputies also pressed for more accurate and transparent data on economic performance, including growth figures published by the National Institute of Statistics. We note that various commentators have questioned the credibility of the Q2 GDP figures released by the INS. According to the lawmakers, these shortcomings reflect deeper structural weaknesses in the state's budgetary process.

The committee's decision effectively freezes parliamentary examination of the 2026 Finance Bill. Lawmakers insist that the government must first comply with the Organic Budget Law before the legislature can proceed with its review. They also called for a stronger partnership between the executive and legislative branches, particularly in crafting economic policy capable of delivering growth, attracting investment, and reinforcing the state's social role. Until then, the political standoff risks delaying the adoption of the 2026 budget and could further strain Tunisia's already fragile fiscal outlook.

• European Commission grants priority status under the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF)
• Project aims to deploy 10 GW of solar, wind, and storage in Tunisia and Algeria
• Targeted operational launch by 2030, with an estimated cost of EUR 5bn

The Medlink project has been designated by the European Commission as a priority cross-border renewable energy initiative under the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF), according to media reports. The decision, taken in July, grants the project special visibility and eligibility to apply for EU grants covering both studies and construction phases. Medlink is one of five new cross-border renewable energy projects added to the EU's updated list, following an evaluation process by independent experts, the European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency (CINEA), and the EU Commission.

Medlink aims to deploy approximately 10 GW of renewable capacity in Tunisia and Algeria, combining solar photovoltaic, onshore wind, and battery energy storage systems. The project is expected to generate around 30 TWh of electricity annually, with 4 GW of new transfer capacity to supply both local markets and exports to Europe. Its climate objective includes cutting carbon dioxide emissions by an estimated 8 million tonnes per year within the EU. An environmental and social impact study is also part of the project design.

Italian developer Zhero has raised more than EUR 100mn in private financing to initiate early phases of Medlink. Total costs are estimated at around EUR 5bn, and the project is targeting an operational launch by 2030. While no EU funding has yet been awarded, the new priority status allows Medlink to compete in upcoming CEF calls for grants. The initiative aligns with European efforts to diversify energy supply and accelerate the green transition, while also supporting Italy's Mattei Plan for deeper energy cooperation with Africa.

As of mid-2025, renewables make up 6% of Tunisia's electricity generation. Installed renewable capacity connected to the grid has been reported at about 565 MW as of mid-2023. According to the ministry of mines and energy, 350-500 MW of rooftop solar has also been installed. A large pipeline is underway, including over 2 GW in various stages of tendering and construction, to help reach the 2030 target of 3.8 GW and 30% of the power mix. Medlink's scale would significantly increase renewable deployment in Tunisia and Algeria, offering economic opportunities, job creation, and enhanced integration with European energy markets.

• FDI inflows reached TND 1.65bn in H1 2025, up from TND 1.37bn a year earlier
• Manufacturing sector remains the main driver, while agriculture lags behind
• Authorities project up to TND 4bn in annual FDI from 2026

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Tunisia rose by 20.8% during the first six months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, according to the Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (FIPA). FIPA head Hatem Soussi told Express radio in an interview that inflows reached TND 1.65bn between January and June, up from TND 1.37bn a year earlier. Excluding energy, these investments created 4,677 new jobs in the first half of the year. On average, foreign companies in Tunisia generate between 13,000 and 15,000 jobs annually.

The manufacturing sector remained the largest contributor, attracting TND 1.03bn by the end of June versus TND 839mn in H1 2024, an increase of 22.9%. Energy-related investment rose 60% in percentage terms, though the absolute value remained modest at just over TND 1mn. Most expansion projects by foreign firms fall between TND 60mn and TND 120mn and typically involve advanced production equipment.

Investment flows are concentrated in six priority sectors: automotive components, aeronautical parts, information and communication technologies, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and agri-food. Foreign companies in the aeronautics and automotive sectors have also established research and development operations in Tunisia. By contrast, agriculture accounted for just 1.2% of foreign investment, limited by water scarcity.

Looking ahead, FIPA projects foreign investment inflows could reach TND 3.4bn by the end of 2025, with potential to grow to TND 4bn annually from 2026. To reach the equivalent of 2010 levels at today's exchange rate, inflows would need to exceed TND 4.3bn, Soussi explained. The agency noted that actual investment values may be higher than reported, as land acquisitions and second-hand equipment purchases are not fully reflected in official figures.

Officials also highlighted the need to accelerate economic reforms, increase public investment in infrastructure, and encourage stronger domestic private-sector participation. A more dynamic local business environment, they argued, would make Tunisian firms stronger partners for foreign investors and support their international expansion.

• Trading with BFA shares on BODIVA expected to begin on Sep 30

Banco de Fomento de Angola (BFA) is set to launch a landmark public offering of 29.75% of its capital on Sep 5, the largest ever operation on the Angolan stock exchange (BODIVA). The transaction involves the sale of 4.46mn ordinary shares currently held by Unitel (15%) and Banco Português de Investimento (BPI, 14.75%). Unitel is now controlled by the Angolan state after an asset recovery process, while BPI is owned by Spain's CaixaBank, which acquired its stake in 2017 from Isabel dos Santos.

The indicative price per share ranges between AOA 41,500-49,500 (EUR 39-46), giving the operation a total potential value of AOA 205-220bn (EUR 205-206mn). Subscriptions will Sep 25, with the final price and allocation results set for Sep 26. Settlement is scheduled for Sep 29, and trading on BODIVA is expected to begin on September 30. With its admission, BFA will become the third bank to list on BODIVA, joining BAI and Caixa Angola, further consolidating the development of the capital markets.

• Shell returns to Angola after 25 years and together with Chevron will explore offshore block 33/24
• Eni-BP JV Azule Energy to invest USD 5bn over next five years

Several international oil firms have confirmed their readiness to expand presence in Angola at the sidelines of the 2025 Oil and Gas Summit that started in Luanda on Wednesday.

Chevron together with Shell and Sonangol have signed a preliminary deal with the National Oil, Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANPG) to explore offshore block 33/24 in the Lower Congo Basin. The agreement, a risk services contract remains subject to regulatory approvals. The block lies near highly productive blocks 17 and 32, raising expectations of significant reserves if exploration succeeds. Moreover, the deals marks Shell's formal return to Angola after 25-year absence. Shell executives highlighted the country's more favorable business climate and fiscal incentives as key drivers for its renewed interest.

The agreement forms part of ANPG's permanent offer strategy, enabling direct negotiations on unawarded blocks. Shell's comeback signals renewed confidence in Angola's geological potential and regulatory framework, with expectations that it could encourage other international oil majors to pursue deep- and ultra-deepwater opportunities, bolstering oil industry revival.

On another note, Azule Energy, the Eni-BP joint venture, confirmed plans to invest USD 5bn in Angola over the next four to five years, matching the scale of its spending since the venture's launch three years ago. The funds will support both new and existing projects, including the drilling of 18 wells, with Azule operating two-thirds. ENI's Executive President Cláudio Descalzi also plan to expand the Luanda refinery, a move aimed at strengthening Angola's energy value chain and reducing reliance on imported fuel products.

• Goal is to sustain production above 1mn barrels per day until 2027
• Mechanism is already in place to encourage additional oil volumes in mature and marginal fields
• Local economists say oil sector faces a "very negative" outlook until 2032

Angola expects USD 72bn in investments for oil concessions already awarded between 2025 and 2029, Minister of Mineral Resources, Petroleum and Gas Diamantino Azevedo said at the opening of 2025 Oil and Gas summit in Luanda. This follows USD 84bn invested between 2017 and 2024, a period marked by reforms that made the country more competitive for foreign capital. Since 2017, 35 blocks have been awarded: 18 in the Lower Congo Basin, 11 in the Kwanza Basin, and six in the Namibe Basin, with 13 further concessions awaiting approval.

The government aims to sustain production above 1mn barrels per day until 2027, countering the decline that began in 2016, when output fell by up to 15% annually. Structural issues included outdated governance, lack of modern legislation, maturing fields, delays in licensing new concessions, declining exploration investment, and rising global competition. To mitigate the natural decline in production, the minister announced the operationalization of the Incremental Production Legal and Fiscal Regime, a mechanism that aims to encourage additional oil volumes in mature and marginal fields, through agreements between ANPG and operators.

Azevedo also detailed that ongoing projects include Agogo (Block 15/06), CLOV Phase 3 (Block 17), Begónia (Block 17/06), and Kaminho (Block 20/11), the first offshore development in the Kwanza Basin, now under local construction at Petromar's Ambriz yard. Exploration drilling in Blocks 15, 17 and 1/14 yielded commercial discoveries exceeding 80mn barrels of oil and over 1tn cubic feet of gas in preliminary estimates.

Gas developments are also advancing through the New Gas Consortium, with Quiluma and Maboqueiro fields, and a new discovery at Gajajeira-1. Natural gas is being positioned for power generation, fertilizer production, and petrochemicals. The minister underlined Angola's strategy of consolidating oil and gas while gradually diversifying into biofuels, solar power, and green hydrogen, preparing for an energy transition.

Adressing the same forum, President Joao Lourenco insisted that oil-producing countries must retain the right to develop their hydrocarbon resources despite climate concerns. He emphasized that oil revenues remain essential for Angola's development and nation-building, recalling reforms since 2017 to attract investment and ensure legal and contractual stability. While committing to responsible and sustainable exploitation, including emissions reduction and renewables expansion, Lourenco underlined that oil will remain central to country's economy and future, even as the country advances its energy transition.

Meanwhile, the Centre for Economic Research at the Lusíada University of Angola (CINVESTEC) said that oil sector faces a "very negative" outlook until 2032, with stabilization dependent on the discovery of new reserves. The study highlights declining output despite investment in marginal and mature wells, noting that Angola has effectively entered a "post-oil era." In Q1 2025, oil production was 3% below 2022 levels, with a 4.4% decline in the past four quarters and income falling 15.5%. In Q2 2025, Angola exported 83.6mn barrels, earning USD 5.6bn, down 13.6% y/y, while gross export value fell 29.8%.

• Mamo resigned in a letter dated Sep 3, citing need to pursue other passions and tackle new challenges
• Media reports link departure to new NBE law granting central bank autonomy, in line with IMF recommendations
• Mamo oversaw tripling of FX reserves, lowered inflation to 7-year low, and helped secure USD 10.5bn in external financing

Central Bank governor Mamo Mihretu resigned on Sep 3, ending his more than two-and-a-half-year tenure as head of the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) and seven years in public service. In his resignation letter, he said he was stepping down "to pursue other passions and tackle new challenges." He did not specify further reasons for leaving, though media reports have linked his departure to the recently enacted NBE proclamation, which formally granted the Central Bank autonomy from the executive branch, a reform aligned with IMF recommendations. The Prime Minister's office did not comment on the resignation.

Mamo said the NBE established formal autonomy through new legislation, adopted a modern monetary policy framework, and transitioned to a market-based exchange rate system. He reported that the government opened the financial sector to foreign banks and advanced digital financial inclusion initiatives. Mamo highlighted that foreign exchange reserves tripled in a year to reach a historic high, while inflation fell to a seven-year low. Digital payments increased more than tenfold, and total financial sector assets exceeded ETB 5trn. He stated that USD 10.5bn in external financing from multilateral partners, including the IMF and World Bank, supported macroeconomic stability and investor confidence. Observers noted that the birr's gradual float helped ease chronic foreign exchange shortages but contributed to price pressures on households.

We noted that Mamo previously served as Ethiopia's chief WTO negotiator, founding CEO of Ethiopian Investment Holdings, and a senior member of the macroeconomic team behind domestic reforms. He expressed gratitude to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and NBE staff in his farewell. It currently remains unclear who will succeed Mamo who had been very instrumental in driving the country's economic and financial reforms, or what impact his departure will have on the overall macroeconomic and monetary policy environment. We will keep a close eye on any new developments in this area.

• Number of reported cybercrime cases grow 52% to 2,008
• CSA voices concern over increase as it launches cybersecurity awareness month

The Cyber Security Authority (CSA) said that the financial losses from cyber crimes grew by 17% y/y to GHS 19.94mn in H1 2025, as number of reported cases rose by 52% y/y to 2,008 during the period. The CSA head Divine Selasi Agbeti, who spoke at the launch of the 2025 Cybersecurity Awareness Month on Sep 3, said that the highest share of cases was online fraud (36%), followed by cyberbullying (25%), online blackmail (14%) and unauthorised access (12%). Online fraud and impersonation alone accounted for over 90% of the financial losses caused by cybercrime. Communications minister Sam George, who also spoke at the event, said that financial losses from cybercrime exceeded GHS 23mn in 2024.

Agbeti said the concerns over data security and online privacy are increasing and expressed hope that the awareness month would result in higher crime reporting. The Director-General of the Criminal Investigations Department (CID), Lydia Yaako Donkor, urged greater government investment in cybersecurity infrastructure, legislation, and law enforcement capacity, and called on the private sector to invest in strengthen cyber defence and report cases promptly.

Ghana loses GH₵14.94m to cyber crime in 2025 - CSA (Citi Newsroom)

MTN Ghana to phase out 2G and 3G networks gradually (Citi Newsroom)

Gov't to roll out solar-powered irrigation pumps nationwide (Citi Newsroom)

President Mahama demands firm 2026 completion deadline for Ofankor-Nsawam road project (Daily Graphic)

Transport Ministry moves to legalise commercial 'Okada' operations (Starr FM)

DVLA signs MoU with TransAid and Scania to enhance driver training (Class FM)

• Slowdown driven by lower food, solid fuel prices
• Transport prices drop at slower pace again as fuel price rise
• Inflation slowdown expected to continue, central bank eyes inflation of 10% by yearend

The CPI inflation continued easing in August, decreasing to 11.5% y/y from 12.1% y/y in July, hitting a new lowest level since October 2021. The deceleration was mainly driven by the slower price growth in the category of housing and utilities (partly due to the drop in charcoal prices), as well as clothing and footwear, and food and non-alcoholic drinks. Food inflation slowed to 14.8% y/y in August from 15.1% y/y in July reflecting monthly declines in some food products. At the same time, transport prices declined at a slower pace of 5.2% y/y in August, which is due to the rise in fuel prices during the month as the government hiked the energy levy. In m/m terms, the headline CPI fell by 1.3% m/m after rising by 0.7% in July, as food prices dropped by 2.5%.

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CPI slowdown is expected to continue in the months ahead, driven by the stable cedi and the tight monetary and fiscal policies. The central bank has said it is targeting lowering inflation to 10% by the end of the year. The central bank cut the policy rate by 300bps at its MPC meeting in July citing the continued disinflation and the broadly anchored inflation expectations, as well the stronger external buffers and rising confidence in the economy. It said upside inflation risks remained including potential supply chain challenges emanating from the global trade tensions, and upward adjustment in utility tariffs but they were expected to be offset by appropriately tight monetary policy stance and continued fiscal consolidation.

• New orders continue growing, but output drops for second month due to poor weather
• Input costs and selling prices decline further
• Business confidence remains strong thanks to lower prices, stable cedi

The S&P Global Ghana PMI improved slightly to 50.8 index points in August from 50.2 in July, suggesting faster increase in private sector activity. New orders grew further which panellists attributed to lower prices, and this led to continued rise in employment and purchasing activity. However, output decreased for a second consecutive month which has been linked to poor weather conditions. Despite this, business confidence remained strong with 82% of panellists expecting growth in output over the next 12 months, supported by the decreasing prices and stable cedi. Input costs dropped further thanks to lower purchase prices and companies lowered output prices for the fourth month in a row.

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The PMI data suggests continued albeit softer growth in private sector activity in Q3 after the strong results in Q2. However, the strong confidence levels suggest output might increase going forward, especially after the central bank cut the key interest rate by 300bps in late July. GDP growth picked up to 5.3% y/y in Q1 from 3.6% y/y in Q4, driven by faster growth in agriculture and industry, in turn due to a rebound in cocoa and non-oil mining (mostly gold). The government and the IMF expect full-year growth to slow to 4% this year from 5.7% in 2024 amid tighter fiscal and monetary policies and global uncertainties.

• Government offers blocks in Anza and Lamu basins with seismic and geological data
• Infrastructure upgrades aim to boost Kenya's position as a regional energy hub

Kenya will auction 10 oil and gas exploration blocks this month, its first licensing round since the enactment of a new petroleum law in 2019, local media reported, citing the energy ministry. The blocks are located in the Anza and Lamu basins and were selected using geoscientific studies. Detailed seismic data, geological surveys, and well records will be provided to ensure a transparent bidding process, the ministry said.

The round follows recent reforms to petroleum contracts, including flexible terms and tax incentives aimed at attracting investors and unlocking Kenya's hydrocarbon potential while aligning exploration with international standards. The government is also investing in major infrastructure, including Lamu Port expansion, improved road links, and a proposed Lamu-Lokichar pipeline, to support exploration and transportation, the energy minister was cited saying. Kenya discovered oil in Turkana in 2012 but has faced delays in commercial development.

• Amid weak investor interest

The Central Bank sold KES 2.4bn worth of T-bonds, maturing in 2041 (12.00% coupon), according to the auction outcome published on its website. Demand at the auction remained weak, at KES 8.1bn, below the pre-announced target of KES 20bn, and a sharp drop from the record KES 323bn in the auction last month. The weighted average yield on accepted bids printed at 13.96%. The proceeds will be used to finance the budget, as there were no maturities falling due, according to the document.

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Court backs SRC decision to scrap MCAs allowances (Business Daily)

Why Sakaja isn't off the hook yet as he mends fences with MCAs (Nation)

KFS to develop forests on private land in new revenue plan (Nation)

Raila-Ruto bromance: The 'selfish union' that pushed opposition into irrelevance (The Standard)

Why new construction model has gained huge traction, trust among Kenyans (The Standard)

Kenya urged to unlock bankable projects to close Africa's Sh9b infrastructure gap (The Standard)

From hustler dreams to billionaire spending sprees: The extravagance Kenya can't afford (Citizen)

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• President Faye urges for continued fiscal discipline inclusion of priority programs
• Government to speed up new industrial strategy rollout
• Cabinet also reviews transparency laws, flood control, and foreign investment plans

Senegal's cabinet meeting on 3 September placed emphasis on public finance management ahead of the 2026 budget, according to the post-meeting communique. President Faye highlighted ongoing efforts to consolidate state accounts, reduce recurrent spending, and stabilize public debt. He instructed ministers to ensure that priority programs and reforms are fully reflected in the draft finance bill for 2026, which will soon be tabled before the National Assembly.

The head of state also stressed the need to strengthen the role of national investment in economic recovery, encouraging measures to develop "national champions" across industries. Ministers were directed to support the private sector with fiscal and regulatory incentives and to accelerate the rollout of Senegal's new industrial strategy linked to agropoles and territorial development poles.

Beyond fiscal matters, the cabinet discussed preparations for the "Invest in Senegal" forum set for October 7-8, which is expected to attract foreign investors. Other points covered included governance reforms with new laws on transparency and anti-corruption, updated flood prevention programs, and preparations for upcoming international visits.

The Prime Minister also reported on the rollout of the Economic and Social Recovery Plan, follow-up on cooperation agreements with Türkiye, and progress on the national gas network project, which is due to deliver its first infrastructure by 2027.

• Scheme aims to mobilise up to USD 10bn in private capital over several years
• First ZAR 10bn in investment to support new electricity transmission lines from Jul 2026
• Vehicle structured as a privately owned, licensed nonlife insurer with World Bank backing

Deputy finance minister David Masondo has outlined government's plans to establish a new credit guarantee vehicle (CGV) designed to attract private investment into South Africa's infrastructure programme. Speaking at the release of the Development Bank of Southern Africa's annual results, Masondo said the scheme would underwrite ZAR 10bn in transmission projects from July next year and could ultimately mobilise as much as USD 10bn in private capital.

The CGV will be structured as a privately owned, licensed nonlife insurance company rather than a state-owned entity. It will provide credit guarantees to reduce the risks that discourage institutional investors from financing large projects, particularly the risk that offtakers such as Eskom might default on contractual obligations. Masondo stressed that, unlike previous state guarantees, the contingent liabilities would not sit on the sovereign balance sheet.

According to Treasury, the vehicle will be capitalised with about USD 500m at the outset, including a ZAR 2bn equity injection from the government and a USD 200mn loan from the World Bank. Development finance institutions, including the DBSA, are expected to contribute equity or debt. With leverage, this could allow the issuance of up to USD 2bn in credit guarantees in the early years.

The initiative comes as South Africa faces the need for more than ZAR 400bn in transmission investment over the next decade to connect renewable energy to the national grid. Treasury has already issued a request for proposals for independent transmission projects, while the World Bank has described the CGV as being modelled on similar instruments used in countries such as Nigeria, Indonesia and India.

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Masondo tells ratings agencies to rethink SA, hailing DBSA's record R5.3bn profit (News24)

Who will lead the NPA? Ramaphosa paralysis pushes prosecuting authority deeper into crisis (News24)

DBSA steps up efforts to rescue struggling municipalities (Moneyweb)

Daybreak Foods to chop 2,200 jobs in brutal business rescue plan (Daily Maverick)

Gayton McKenzie causes chaos in cultural sector, reneging on promises of support (Daily Maverick)

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The stars are lining up for a 3% inflation target - and lower interest rates (Daily Maverick)

• Import cover ratio rise to 3.7, but remains below EAC's 4.5 recommendation
• Reserve increase is driven by higher exports, mainly coffee and gold
• CA is expected to remain sizeable this year but gradually decline over medium term

Uganda's gross foreign exchange reserves increased further in July, by 6.5% or USD 278mn m/m to USD 4,576mn, according to data released by the central bank. In ytd terms, reserves rose by 38.6% or USD 1,273mn, which could be attributed to the rise in exports, driven largely by coffee, gold and cocoa. The reserves' import cover ratio increased to 3.7 months in July from 3.4 months in June and 2.5 at end-2024, but remained below the 4.5 recommendation of the East African Community (EAC).

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The current account deficit shrank by 38.5% y/y to USD 723mn in Q1 on the back of lower deficit on the goods account, which in turn was due to the strong growth in exports, by 39.1% y/y to USD 2.6bn, driven by coffee and gold exports. The deficit on the services account also shrank reflecting higher exports of travel services. The balances on the primary and secondary income accounts improved thanks to the drop in dividend payments abroad and the rise in worker remittances. In 2024, the CA deficit widened to USD 5bn or 9% of GDP, and is expected to decrease but remain sizeable at around 6-7% this year, as a result of increased debt payments and investment-related imports. The CA deficit is seen to gradually decline in the years after the country starts producing oil, expected in 2026. The IMF expects the CA gap to narrow gradually to 2.9% in 2028.

• Yields rise as government accepts large share of bids
• Government sold UGX 1,355bn bonds, 37% above offer
• With this auction, treasuries sold this FY reach 24% of plan

The government sold UGX 1,355bn T-bonds at an auction on Sep 3, exceeding the UGX 990bn target. The demand was strong with bids totalling UGX 2,070bn, translating into a subscription rate of 2.1, and the government accepted most of them. As a result, yields rose, by between 5bps and 45bps (for the shortest maturity).

With the latest auction, the total issuance this fiscal year so far (Jul 1-Jun 30) reached UGX 5.2tn, which is 24% of the issuance plan which is UGX 21.4tn. The total issuance for the 2024/25 year amounted to UGX 25.5tn, as the government resorted mainly to domestic borrowing to compensate for lower-than-expected external funding. The government expects more external financing this year following the WB's decision to unfreeze lending to the country.

Zambia, DRC poised to benefit from USD 46 trillion global EV market (Zambia Monitor)

Zambia launches U.S. roadshow to boost trade, foreign direct investment (Zambia Monitor)

Govt reaffirms commitment to inclusive trade under AfCFTA protocol (Zambia Monitor)

Learn from Lusambo's jailing, CAAC warns corrupt govt officials (News Diggers)

Winning 2026 elections will be easy - Govt (News Diggers)

All PF members are potential prisoners under UPND - Opposition PF (News Diggers)

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Govt will support UNAIDS office in Zambia (News Diggers)

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Bus and Taxi Drivers Association rules out fare adjustment (News Diggers)

• Cites gaps in asset declarations and lifestyle audits among top officials in govt
• Further cites selective enforcement and perceived bias favoring ruling party officials
• calls for urgent reforms to strengthen anti-corruption institutions
• Urges operationalisation of ATI Act and protection of civic space

Transparency International Zambia (TI-Z) President Priscilla Chansa expressed concern over critical gaps in anti-corruption and governance under President Hakainde Hichilema's administration. Citing an evidence-based assessment of 12 manifesto promises and feedback from 65 stakeholders, Chansa reported a score of 2.1 out of 5, indicating low progress on key commitments over the past four years. Chansa noted that while some areas showed moderate improvements. Operation Recovery scored 2.8/5, Economic Management 2.7/5, and Rule of Law 2.6/5, the weakest areas included Declaration of Assets and Wealth (1.6/5) and Lifestyle Audits (1.8/5), reflecting inadequate legislation and inconsistent implementation.

Chansa acknowledged steps to strengthen anti-corruption institutions, including appointing a new ACC Board and Director-General and increasing funding from ZMW 73mn in 2021 to nearly ZMW 180mn in 2025. She also highlighted the Economic and Financial Crimes Court, which enabled faster disposal of high-profile cases, and Parliament's enactment of the Access to Information Act in December 2023, operationalised in June 2024. Despite progress, Chansa cited selective enforcement and perceived bias favoring ruling party officials. She urged embedding measurable anti-corruption benchmarks in leadership performance contracts and making leadership changes where integrity lapses occurred.

Chansa called for completion of legal reforms, including amendments to the Anti-Corruption Act, a comprehensive asset declaration law, and a lifestyle audit framework with due-process safeguards. Chansa emphasized full operationalisation of the ATI Act with designated information officers, fair enforcement across political lines, protection of press freedom, and stronger oversight of CDF funds. She also recommended regulating political financing and linking macroeconomic stability to targeted anti-poverty measures to address rising living costs and inequality.

• Cost of living for a Lusaka family of five eased to ZMW 11,432.17 in August
• Food prices show mixed trends: chicken up 24.5%, small fish (kapenta) down 21.5%
• Non-food costs ease: charcoal prices drop 11.3% easing energy burden

The Jesuit Centre for Theological Reflection (JCTR) reported that the cost of living for a family of five in Lusaka fell to ZMW 11,432.17 in August 2025 from ZMW 11,602.45 in July, marking a 1.47% decline. The reduction of ZMW 170.28 mainly resulted from lower prices in non-food items, which dropped by ZMW 154.10, while food costs fell slightly by ZMW 16.18. Charcoal prices decreased from ZMW 680.00 to ZMW 603.33 per 90kg bag (11.3%), easing household fuel burdens. Among food commodities, significant price increases were recorded for vegetables (from ZMW 800.00 to ZMW 980.11 per kg, 22.5%), chicken (from ZMW 346.78 to ZMW 432.08 per 2kg, 24.5%), and fresh milk (from ZMW 210.00 to ZMW 267.00 per litre, 27.1%). Conversely, kapenta fell from ZMW 446.65 to ZMW 350.85 per kg (21.5%), beef from ZMW 500.00 to ZMW 410.88 per kg (17.8%), and other fruits from ZMW 400.00 to ZMW 307.04 per kg (23.2%). These shifts reflected ongoing volatility in both food and non-food commodities, highlighting the need for continued monitoring of household affordability.

JCTR highlighted that while Zambia produced sufficient calories per person per day (2,340 kcal) mainly from maize and cassava, nutrition gaps persisted. Intake of proteins, calcium, vitamin A, zinc, and iron especially for women remained below recommended levels. High post-harvest losses in cassava, potatoes, rice, and tomatoes, sometimes reaching 30%, contributed to price instability and limited dietary diversity. The centre urged promotion of diverse, nutrition-sensitive agriculture, supporting small-scale farmers to expand production beyond maize and cassava to include legumes, vegetables, fruits, fish, and livestock. It also emphasized strengthening social protection measures, including school feeding, social cash transfers, and Public Welfare Assistance Schemes, to cushion vulnerable households. Despite sufficient food availability, affordability and diet quality remained major barriers, leaving many families struggling to maintain healthy, nutrient-rich diets.

We recall that CPI inflation for August 2025 slowed to 12.6% y/y, down from 13.0% y/y in July, extending the disinflationary trend reported by the Zambia Statistics Agency (ZamStats). The August headline is the lowest recorded since October 2023. The deceleration was driven by weaker price pressures across both the food and non-food baskets. Annual food inflation was 14.9% in August (July: 15.3%), with favourable price movements in cereals (breakfast mealie meal, roller mealie meal, maize grain, rice), fruits (bananas, lemons, apples, pineapples), as well as fresh milk and eggs, trends the bulletin links to seasonal supply improvements. Non-food inflation moderated to 9.3% in August from 9.7% in July. ZamStats highlights price declines or weaker upward pressure in items such as spare parts and accessories, passenger air transport, fuel (petrol and diesel), and paraffin as contributors to the slowdown in the non-food group.

• Ex-Treasury chief Yamba guilty of authorizing ZMW 108.4mn transfer without approval
• Former minister Malanji convicted on 7 of 8 counts, acquitted on hotel purchase
• Sentencing postponed as defence sought non-custodial sentences

The Lusaka Magistrate's Court convicted former Secretary to the Treasury, Fredson Yamba, on two counts of wilful failure to comply with procedures, and former Foreign Affairs Minister, Joseph Malanji, on seven counts of possessing property suspected to be proceeds of crime. Acting Chief Resident Magistrate Irene Wishimanga said Yamba breached Section 30 of the Public Finance Act when he authorized a ZMW 108.4mn transfer to Zambia's mission in Turkey for property procurement without parliamentary approval.

Malanji was found guilty of indirectly acquiring two aircraft, a Bell 430 and a Bell 206 Jet Ranger through deposits made via Gibson Power Systems. The court ruled that the company lacked sufficient funds, with its account showing a zero balance before deposits tied to his trips to Turkey and Morocco. He was also convicted for holding USD 105,000 and USD 110,000 routed through Gibson Air Charter, funds deemed tainted after being traced back to embassy payments without clear justification.

Magistrate Wishimanga acquitted Malanji on one count involving the Gibson Royal Hotel in Kitwe, ruling that the property had been financed through loans from FNB and the Development Bank of Zambia. However, she convicted him on counts eight to ten for purchasing houses in Silverest. The court said although initial instalments were legitimate, unexplained dollar payments made in December 2018 tainted the properties as proceeds of crime. Defence lawyers asked the court for suspended sentences, stressing that both convicts were first offenders and arguing that custodial punishment was unnecessary. They highlighted Yamba's role as limited to sourcing funds and noted Malanji's remorse and family responsibilities. Sentencing was postponed to the next hearing.

We recall that these convictions follow a string of high-profile corruption cases involving former officials from the previous Patriotic Front (PF) government. Barely a week earlier, former Lusaka Province Minister Bowman Lusambo was sentenced to three years in prison for possession of assets suspected to be proceeds of crime, including a mansion and six seized flats. The recent convictions of ex-minister Joseph Malanji and former Treasury Secretary Fredson Yamba continue this trend, prompting opposition critics to allege that the current Hichilema administration is selectively targeting PF officials. Lusambo and PF representatives have described these actions as politically motivated, claiming they are part of a broader campaign to silence and intimidate opposition figures.

• Focus on creating energy-efficient appliances, clean-tech platforms, and e-waste
• Sweden backed initiative to support skills development and technology transfer

Zambia launched the EUR 5.2mn Energy Efficiency for Sustainable Livelihood in Africa (EELA) project aimed at transforming markets toward high-performing, affordable, and energy-efficient appliances. The initiative targeted increased investment in energy efficiency and promoted sustainable local value chains for energy-efficient products and services. Energy Minister Makozo Chikote, represented by Commerce Minister Chipoka Mulenga, said the project would stimulate inclusive and sustainable growth while aligning with government priorities in trade facilitation, industrial development, and investment promotion.

The EELA project supported the creation of a One-Stop-Shop Industry Clean-Tech Platform linked with de-risking instruments at national industry associations. It aimed to enhance cooperation with international technology providers while fostering technical innovation and e-waste treatment solutions. UNIDO expert Eline Karlson said the interventions sought to accelerate demand for high-quality energy-efficient products and services, while building capacities in regulatory frameworks, private sector markets, and regional policy harmonization. Ambassador Johan Hallenborg of Sweden highlighted the program's emphasis on enhancing repair and maintenance skills and end-of-life treatment of energy-efficient equipment, noting that public-private partnerships would strengthen local industry and encourage innovation.

• Diesel & LSD growth eases from 52.8% in May to 44.2% y/y in June
• Petrol demand quickens to 24.2% y/y in June (from 6.9% in May)
• Kerosene surges to 145.9% y/y in June after a -8.5% print in May
• Jet-A1 consumption remains weak, contracting 6.1% y/y in June

According to preliminary data from Zambia's Ministry of Finance, overall fuel-consumption growth continued to moderate in June 2025 as the composition of demand shifted markedly across products. Year-on-year growth in Diesel & Light Speed Diesel (LSD) cooled to 44.2%, down from 52.8% in May, a pattern consistent with fading base-effects and a seasonal slowdown in heavy transport activity. Petrol rebounded strongly to 24.2% y/y in June (from 6.9% in May), reflecting renewed retail mobility and urban commuting following the seasonal trough. Jet-A1 consumption remained under pressure, contracting 6.1% y/y as airlines keep capacity conservative. The sharp jump in kerosene (+145.9% y/y) is likely driven by timing of procurement and episodic stock-building rather than a sustained rise in household usage, highlighting the product's volatility.

We recall that the Energy regulation board ERB recently increased fuel prices effective Sep 1 increasing petrol by 4.21%, diesel by 8.17%, kerosene by 7.55% and Jet-A1 by 7.89%. The regulator cited a weaker kwacha and higher regional procurement premiums that outweighed small declines in international benchmarks. Because the consumption data are for June (two months before the price adjustment), the September hike is likely to temper volumes for diesel and petrol in the near term as import-cost-driven retail prices bite, while also adding upward pressure to consumer prices via logistics and distribution channels. Zambia's annual CPI inflation cooled down from 13.0% y/y in July to 12.6% in August, the lowest headline rate since Oct 2023 on lower food, fuel prices. With the upward adjustment in fuel prices, we expect near-term inflationary pressures to re-emerge in September, potentially slowing the pace of disinflation and keeping headline CPI sticky in the 12-13% range, contingent on exchange rate movements and global oil market dynamics.

• Kariba dam water level falls marginally as dry season nears, June output at 1,209.9GWh
• Exports reduce to 190GWh, imports jump 100% y/y and 31.6% y/y

Electricity generation fell by 7.8% m/m to 1,209.9GWh in June but climbed 14.9% y/y, according to the latest Ministry of Finance report. Aggregate electricity consumption was not updated for the month of May in the latest release. Previously reported consumption data showed that domestic consumption excluding mines rose 2.1% m/m to 423.6GWh in April (consumption data have one‑month lag), reflecting the mild uptick in available generation. On an annual basis, non‑mining demand remains subdued, down 33.5% y/y. Mining sector demand continues to surge, in April, mines consumed 960.2GWh, up 15.5% m/m and a striking 106.9% y/y, as major copper operations ramp up production following maintenance shutdowns earlier in the year. Exports reduced slightly to 190GWh in June from 210GWh recorded in May (revised position), while imports surged 100% y/y to 250GWh, growing 31.6% m/m, as utilities supplement domestic output to meet peak loads.

Data Download

We note that after modest seasonal inflows raised Lake Kariba's usable storage in the rainy season, hydro‑driven output edged higher, but still not sufficient for the dam to operate at full capacity. As of Sep 1, the Zambezi River Authority reported that Lake Kariba's usable live storage stood at 19.45%, up from 8.36% at the same time in 2024 (we don't expect water levels to rise significantly beyond the current levels as the rain season is now over). Despite this rise, state-owned power utility, Zesco Limited announced on Aug 17 that power generation fell after Maamba Energy Limited began planned bi-annual maintenance on its 300MW coal-fired power plant. The exercise, running in two phases from Aug 17-31 and Sep 7-21, forced the utility to implement Stage 10 of its 12-tier load management system. Under this stage, residential customers received only 5 hours of electricity daily, representing a 78% decline from Stage 1 levels of 23 hours. As of May 30, total national generation stood at 1,311MW against a demand of 2,400MW, leaving a deficit of 1,089MW. The removal of Maamba's 300MW capacity (although staggered in 150MW phases) widened the gap to 1,389MW during the maintenance window, intensifying pressure on supply.