• Foreign holdings include guarantees worth USD 23.7bn, CBE says in a footnote
• Foreign funds bought USD 29bn T-bills/bonds through local bourse since March 2024
• Despite surge of portfolio inflows, Egypt emerged largely unscathed from last two sell-offs
• Pound has appreciated since April on the back of strong portfolio inflows, tourism and remittances

The stock of T-bills held by foreigner investors rose by strong 8.2% m/m to a record-high EGP 2.12tn as of end-July (USD 44.8bn) following a 0.9% m/m drop in June, according to data published by the central bank (CBE). We attribute the sharp increase to returning foreign investors and the increase in holdings is in line with the strong purchases by foreign funds through the stock exchange during July. This is the stock of local currency notes only, so the m/m changes do not include FX rate effects. The CBE said that the foreign holdings include collaterals (contingent liabilities) worth USD 23.7bn at end-July under external financing operations. The stock of T-bills held by foreign investors jumped after the currency reform from March 2024 and was 43% of the total outstanding balance at the end of the review month, according to CBE data. Meanwhile, the T-bill holdings of foreign banks (branches) - another set of data we have been monitoring - soared by 42.2% m/m to EGP 59bn following a 28.2% m/m drop recorded in the preceding month.

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Egypt has recorded massive capital inflows since March 2024, and a large chunk of these inflows are portfolio investments into T-bills. The total purchases of foreign investors through EGX was EGP 1.39tn since March 2024, resulting in a total FX inflow of USD 28.8bn through the bourse (not accounting for roll-overs and maturities). Separately, the foreign investors bought around USD 8-10bn worth of T-bills directly from the banks, according to our calculations. While this massive inflow of hot money has raised the risks related to capital outflows and roll over risks, Egypt has largely emerged from the April and June sell-offs unscathed thanks to recent reforms and relatively large external reserves. Further, the FX market was liquid enough to accommodate smooth and orderly exit in April and June. The pound has appreciated since April, partly due to returning portfolio investors, tourism and remittance inflows and partly due to US monetary policy aimed at weakening the US dollar.

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Question:

Have you got data on insurance rates on shipping through the Suez Canal?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: Transit volume across Suez Canal edge down 0.8% m/m in October - IMF's PortWatch

Answer:

We could not find recent insurance rates, but our guess is that any decrease - if it exists - would be marginal. We think it all comes down to how sustainable the Israel-Hamas peace deal is. Despite some initial progress, the deal appears fragile at the moment. Even if it holds, however, most analysts do not expect a meaningful recovery in Suez Canal traffic for at least the next 4-5 months.

Qatari Diar to invest USD 29.7bn in Egypt's Mediterranean coast project (Ahram)

Emaar Misr, Saudi Dallah Albaraka seal USD 1.6bn deal to develop luxury residential project in New Cairo (Ahram)

Egypt parliamentary elections: Reform in motion or new faces reinforcing the status quo? (Ahram)

Hassan Allam Utilities, Infinity Power ink deals to deliver 1.2 GW of solar energy across Egypt (Ahram)

Standard Bank to open representative office in Egypt 12 November (Ahram)

IFC commits USD 60mn to support small businesses, job creation in Egypt (Ahram)

Egypt financial system remains resilient despite global challenges: CBE (Ahram)

Cairo to host Egyptian-Gulf trade, investment forum Monday (Zawya)

H&L to establish 1st South Korean project in SCZONE with USD 12mn investments (Zawya)

CBE Keeps Mortgage Rates at 3%, 8% for "Housing for All Egyptians" Initiative (Sada Elbalad)

Dollar Edges Up against Egyptian Pound to 47.48 (Sada Elbalad)

October marks return of 229 ships to Suez Canal (Egypt Today)

USD 44mn allocated to upgrading Egypt Upstream Gateway under extended agreement with SLB (Daily News Egypt)

Egypt announces new global oil, gas exploration bid in Red Sea (Egypt Business)

• Project is expected to bring USD 2.5bn in returns, according to EGX statement

The local subsidiary of UAE-based Emaar Properties, Emaar Misr has signed a EGP 78bn (USD 1.6bn) agreement with Saudi Arabia's Dallah Albaraka to develop a new luxury residential project in Katameya, New Cairo, Emaar said in a statement on the local bourse EGX. The project is set to cover 380 acres and generate a total return of EGP 117bn (USD 2.5bn). It forms part of Emaar's ongoing expansion in Egypt's high-end real estate market. Emaar Misr signed partnership contracts in September with the Egyptian government and City Stars to launch its latest flagship project, the EGP 900bn Marassi Red Sea, in the Red Sea governorate.

• Egypt will provide USD 26bn worth of land, bringing total value of the investment to USD 30bn
• Saudi Arabia and Kuwait plan to covert some of their deposits into direct investments

The real estate arm of Qatar's sovereign wealth fund, Qatar Diar has entered a partnership with Egypt's New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) to develop a USD 30bn luxury project in Alam Al-Roum on the Mediterranean Cost, unnamed sources told the local press. The investment deal will be announced publicly on Thursday. Under the deal, Diar will pay USD 3.5bn in the coming days, while NUCA will contribute USD 26.2bn in in-kind investments to develop the project. The partners will reportedly include upscale residential areas, marinas, touristic amenities, and even government buildings and aims to turn the undeveloped area into a year-round tourism destination. NUCA will receive 15% of the revenues from the project going forward.

The project is part of a wider USD 7.5bn direct investment package pledged by Qatar, which also includes a USD 3.5bn direct investment into a Red Sea project between Diar and Marriott-owned hospitality chain St Regis. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia said plans to convert some of its USD 10.3bn in CBE deposits into investments. Kuwait is also in discussions to convert the USD 4bn of CBE deposits into direct investments across several sectors. Egypt has set an ambitious target to attract USD 42bn in net FDI in 2025/26, with plans to increase that figure to USD 55bn in FY 2028/29.

• Deal marks ADNOC's first long-term LNG sales agreement with Shell

The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) announced a 15-year sales and purchase agreement (SPA) with Shell International Trading Middle East, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shell, for the delivery of up to 1mn tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG. The deal marks ADNOC's first long-term LNG sales agreement with Shell and the eighth long-term offtake agreement secured for the Ruwais LNG project.

With this latest agreement, more than 8 mtpa of the project's planned 9.6 mtpa capacity is now secured through long-term deals with customers across Asia and Europe.

The LNG will be primarily sourced from the Ruwais LNG project, currently under construction in Al Ruwais Industrial City, Abu Dhabi. Shell holds a 10% stake in the project through its subsidiary, Shell Overseas Holdings Limited.

ADNOC's Ruwais LNG project consists of two liquefaction trains, each with a capacity of 4.8 mtpa, totalling 9.6 mtpa capacity. When completed, it will more than double subsidiary ADNOC Gas' LNG production capacity to 15 mtpa.

The Ruwais LNG facility is distinctive for its use of electric-driven motors powered by clean energy sources instead of conventional gas turbines, making it one of the lowest-carbon intensity LNG projects worldwide. Commercial operations are on track to begin by the fourth quarter of 2028.

• Findings cite weak regulation and lapses under Petroleum Industry Act
• NNPC and CBN records show USD 81bn shortfall and USD 22bn unverified domestic sales
• Lawmakers urge stricter crude measurement standards and drone surveillance

The senate uncovered over USD 300bn in unaccounted crude oil proceeds between 2015 and 2023, according to an interim report by the senate ad-hoc committee on crude oil theft. Forensic investigations conducted with consultants in the UK, US and Canada arrived at the figure. The report blames systemic weaknesses, poor regulatory oversight, weak interagency coordination and the suspension of monitoring functions under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) for enabling large-scale oil theft. The findings were presented to the senate on Wednesday (Nov 5) and revealed major discrepancies between crude oil receipts and official records, including a USD 22bn mismatch in domestic crude proceeds and tax oil returns. The report also highlighted a USD 81bn shortfall between revenue figures reported by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) and those recorded by the CBN for 2016 and 2017.

In its recommendations, the senate urged the government to empower the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to enforce international crude measurement standards or reinstate the Weights and Measures Department with modern technology. It also called for the deployment of drones and advanced surveillance systems to curb theft, as well as for government to establish a special court to prosecute oil-related crimes. The report further recommended that abandoned oil wells be transferred to modular refineries to boost domestic refining capacity.

• AFRICOM proposed three options to Department of War: heavy, medium and light
• Heavy plan includes deploying an aircraft carrier and launching airstrikes
• Medium option centers on drone strikes against militant camps and convoys
• Light approach involves supporting Nigerian forces in joint operations

According to a report in The New York Times, the US military has developed contingency plans for potential action in Nigeria following Donald Trump's directive to prepare for strikes over alleged persecution of Christians. The US Africa Command (AFRICOM) presented three options (heavy, medium and light) to the Department of War. AFRICOM's plans follow president Trump's decision to designate Nigeria as a 'country of particular concern', a move that suspends US arms sales and technical cooperation. The heavy option reportedly involves deploying an aircraft carrier group to the Gulf of Guinea and launching airstrikes deep inside northern Nigeria.

The medium option centers on drone strikes against militant camps and convoys, while the light option focuses on supporting Nigerian forces through joint operations targeting Boko Haram and other insurgent groups. Officials say the main goal is to neutralize Islamist militants and end the country's protracted insurgency. The light option faces obstacles since the Trump administration dissolved the US Agency for International Development (USAID) which had been an important partner in coordinating operations with Nigerian forces.

Trump accuses the Tinubu administration of allowing the mass killing of Christians. However, experts and military officials have raised concerns about the complexity of Nigeria's conflict, which involves overlapping ethnic, religious and economic factors. Violence in the Middle Belt often stems from land disputes, while jihadist groups such as Boko Haram and ISWAP have targeted both Muslims and Christians indiscriminately. Analysts warn that US strikes could inflame tensions rather than resolve them. Nigeria's foreign affairs minister Yusuf Tuggar said on Wednesday that the government is engaging with the Trump administration to clarify Nigeria's constitutional protection of religious freedoms amid efforts to combat Islamist militancy.

Stop exporting crude, OPEC tells Nigerian producers (Punch)

NNPC to feed P'Harcourt refinery's stranded power to grid (Punch)

Christianity facing existential threat in Nigeria, Trump insists (Punch)

15% fuel import duty will hurt Nigerians, says TUC (Punch)

Ondo signs $50bn refinery, free trade zone deal (Punch)

MAN Declares Support for 15% Import Tariff on Petrol, Diesel (ThisDay)

PenCom To Diversify Pension Asset Investments To Boost Returns, Says DG (ThisDay)

Senate Uncovers $200bn Unaccounted Crude Oil Proceeds, Approves Report On Oil Theft Probe (ThisDay)

Eurobonds: Nigeria raises $2.35 billion after record $13 billion investor demand (Nairametrics)

US Military drafts Nigeria strike plans after Trump directive (Nairametrics)

SEC DG: Nigeria's non-interest capital market now worth N1.6 trillion (Nairametrics)

• Latest Eurobond issuance drew USD 13bn in bids
• DMO said deal was Nigeria's largest-ever orderbook
• Issue comprised USD 1.25bn (10-year) and USD 1.1bn (20-year) tranches

Nigeria's USD 2.35bn Eurobond issuance on Wednesday (Nov 5) attracted total bids worth USD 13bn, reflecting an oversubscription of 453% or USD 10.65bn. The strong investor demand came despite US president Donald Trump's recent designation of Nigeria as a "country of particular concern" over alleged religious persecution and his threat of military action if the violence continues. The robust response highlights continued investor confidence in Nigeria. According to the Debt Management Office (DMO), the Eurobond offering attracted participation from the United Kingdom, North America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Nigeria, marking the country's largest-ever orderbook. Demand came primarily from fund managers, insurance and pension funds, hedge funds and banks.

The DMO said the issuance comprised two tranches: a USD 1.25bn 'long 10-year' bond maturing in 2036 and a USD 1.1bn 'long 20-year' bond maturing in 2046. They were priced at coupon rates of 8.625% and 9.125%, respectively. The 10-year tranche recorded demand worth USD 4.9bn against an issue size of USD 700mn (seven times the offer) while the 20-year tranche saw bids exceeding USD 4.2bn for a USD 1.5bn issuance. The bonds will be listed on the London Stock Exchange, FMDQ Securities Exchange and the Nigerian Exchange Limited. Proceeds from the sale will finance the 2025 fiscal deficit and refinance USD 1.1bn of maturing Eurobonds later this month.

• Yield drops by 17bps w/w to 5.01%
• Auction sees improved investor appetite

Bahrain's central bank sold BHD 70 million in 91-day Treasury bills at its latest auction earlier this week, with the average yield easing to 5.01%, compared with 5.18% in the previous issuance held about a week earlier. Investor demand strengthened notably, as the subscription rate rose to 1.37 from 1.01 in the October 29 auction.

We remind that Bahrain recorded zero CPI inflation in September after consumer prices had declined by 0.8% y/y in the preceding month. Bahrain's central bank has cut its overnight deposit rate four times since September, 2024, in line with the US Federal Reserve. Bahrain typically follows the Fed's moves as the local currency is pegged to the US dollar.

• Revaluation pushes up reserves, government transfers have opposite effect
• Reserves secure 29.3 months of imports at end of October

The foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Israel (BoI) edged up by 0.03% m/m or USD 74mn to another record high of USD 232.0bn at the end of October, according to the latest data from BoI. The increase was again entirely due to revaluation effects that added USD 607mn to the reserves in the month. Government transfers to abroad totalled USD 550mn decreasing the impact of the former. There were no other significant flows in the month, the report showed.

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Forex reserves accounted for 41.3% of GDP at the end of October, the BoI said in the press release. The reserves secured 29.3 months of imports at the end of October, stabilising compared to one month ago, but up from 28.9 months at the end of 2024, according to our calculations.

• Positive expectations prevail in industry, construction, services
• Survey reports significant decline in construction activity in Sep compared to Aug but increase in trade
• Labour shortage limitation in construction declines in October, security situation still a concern for most

The future expectations of companies are mixed for the next month, according to the latest business confidence survey of the stat office (CBS). Industrial companies preserve the positive balance for all future expectations and even mark improvements in terms of expected orders for the local market, and in expected production volume. Construction marked a notable improvement in expectations for November with both components switching to positive from negative values in the previous month. Services also had improving expectations for November. In contrast, pessimism prevailed in retail trade with most expectations (sales and orders from suppliers) turning to negative balances for November but the employment expectations remained positive. Expectations in hotels remained negative but we note that those related to the number of foreign tourist overnights approached zero.

The net balances were positive in October for all sectors with the exception of hotels, the CBS said. The survey also indicated that there was a significant decrease in construction activity in September compared to August but also an increase in trade.

The survey also questioned companies about limitations to their activities. While more than 45% of construction companies defined the shortage of workers as moderately/severely affecting their company's operations, this ratio dropped to 36% in October, when the ceasefire began. The security situation is still affecting business activity as about 34% of industrial companies define it as a moderate/severe limitation, compared to only about 12% before the start of the war but this is down from 48% when the war started. In hotels, even before the war the share of businesses seeing the security situation as moderate/severe limitation exceeded 50% and then jumped to more than 90% during the war. In the service industries, this restriction returned to a level similar to the pre-war situation, the CBS said.

• Wages continue rising in September, might fuel inflation
• Employee jobs continue rising in y/y and m/m in Aug, jobs rise y/y in Sep too

The real average wage of salaried Israeli workers rose by 2.3% y/y in August (seasonally-adjusted data) speeding up from 1.1% y/y in the previous month, the stat office (CBS) reported. In nominal sa terms, wages grew by 5.1% y/y in August and the pace was the highest since July 2024. In gross terms, the nominal wage was up by 5.0%, matching the flash estimate. According to the new flash estimate, the nominal average wage rose by 4.7% y/y in September indicating that the real wage growth has remained stable compared to August in view of the faster deceleration of consumer inflation in September. Bank of Israel (BoI) governor Yaron has warned that wages might fuel inflation going forward and the decision for cutting the rate overall depends if the shekel appreciation and the bridging of labour supply shortages would prevail over potential surge in demand after the ceasefire was reached. Wages appear to be contributing to strengthening of private consumption for now.

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Data Download

The number of Israeli employees, also part of the survey, rose by 1.6% y/y in August and the pace continued accelerating but remained lower compared to H1. In monthly terms, the employee jobs rose by 0.1% in August, a second consecutive increase. The job positions were up by 0.3% y/y in September but were down by 0.9% compared to August, according to the new flash estimate.

• Gross profit increases by 7% y/y in Q3

The revenues of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, one of the country's largest producers and exporters and the world's largest generic drugs manufacturer, inched by 1% y/y in local currency terms but expanded by stronger 3% y/y in USD terms to reach USD 4.5bn in Q3, according to its latest quarterly financial report. The US segment pushed up the performance as it rose by 12% y/y while the European segment was down by 10% y/y in local currency terms and the sale of a manufacturing asset in Japan. Exchange rate movements in Q3, net of hedging effects, positively impacted revenues by USD 106mn compared to Q3 2024 and if hedging effects included, the effect was smaller at USD 21mn. Teva's gross profit rose by 7% y/y to USD 2.3bn in Q3.

• Passengers number expected to triple by 2040

The Airports Authority intends to raise some NIS 500mn to finance the expansion of the country's major international airport Ben Gurion to meet increasing demand, local media reported. The Authority expects passenger traffic of some 19mn passengers this year (compared to 20mn in 2023), which will increase to 22mn in 2026. A representative of the finance ministry at a Knesset discussion said that the expectations are traffic to reach some 60mn passengers per year by 2040. The Airports Authority plans to issue bonds on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) and use the financing to increase the airport's capacity; upgrade safety and operational systems; improve the passenger experience; and implement advanced technologies and logistics infrastructure.

• Ministry intends to change mechanism for selling milk to dairy companies, which is to reduce prices by 15%
• Another result from reform is expected to be continuous supply of dairy products

The dairy sector reform, which the finance ministry plans to implement as part of the Arrangements Law that will compliment the 2026 budget law, will comprise abolishing of sectoral planning and opening the sector to imports, local media reported. The reform will aim to lower prices, ensure continuity of supply, and improve operational efficiency. It is intended to address three major problems in the dairy market. According to the ministry, the prices in the dairy sector in the country exceed the average in the OECD by 50% and in some cases like hard cheeses - by 100%. The second problem refers to continuity of supply especially on holidays when shortages are often reported and the third problem refers to inefficiency in the dairy sector, due to significant differences between efficient and inefficient dairy farms.

The ministry is proposing to abolish the current production limit of some 1.5bn litre per year, which will include removing inefficient dairies from the market, while the remaining farms will sell the produce of up to 1bn at protective price, which will replace the current target price and will be lower by 15%, and the production above that threshold will be sold to dairy producers at a price negotiated by the sides.

The ministry expects the prices to fall by 15% after the reform is passed and its full implementation to take 2 years. Another result would be the continuous supply of dairy products from the local market and imports. Farmers and dairy industries oppose the reform and claim that hundreds of farms would be abolished and the final prices would not drop.

Israel Blocks Humanitarian Groups From Delivering Essential Aid Despite Calm in Gaza (Haaretz)

US convenes UNSC, submits resolution regarding Gaza force, Israel not informed beforehand, NSC says (Jerusalem Post)

Hamas disarmament unlikely but Gaza rehabilitation depends on it, security experts say (Jerusalem Post)

[Defence minister] Katz: Israel working to kill Hamas terrorists, destroy tunnels in Gaza area under Israeli control (Jerusalem Post)

Analysis | [Finance minister] Smotrich presents: Dairy market reform with Swiss cheese holes (Calcalist)

Hundreds of jobs, ministerial salaries and huge budgets: The Zionist Organization's jobs factory (Calcalist)

The cloud lifted over the flagship drug - and the connection to Trump: This is how Teva jumped 20% (TheMarker)

The Histadrut's Country presents: A cleaning worker with a salary of about 450,000 shekels per year (TheMarker)

Teva exceeded analysts' expectations, the stock jumped about 17% in Tel Aviv (Globes)

Corruption in the Histadrut: An empire of billions in real estate and finance (Globes)

• Current policy rate: 4.50%
• Next monetary policy meeting: Nov 24, 2025
• Expected decision: Hold or 25bps cut

The ceasefire agreement with Hamas reduced the geopolitical risks and raised the expectations that a rate cut might be on the table of the MPC in the next rate decision and some even speculated that this would be done earlier, in an extraordinary meeting. The BoI rejected the rumours and confirmed that the next rate sitting will take place on Nov 24, as scheduled. Also, governor Yaron and deputy governor Abir made statements to media to calm down the expectations, insisting that the MPC will remain prudent. While those statements sounded rather hawkish, Yaron softened the rhetoric in early November stating that the next decision would be data-dependent. Yaron reminded that the next inflation release as well as the national accounts data in Q3 would be due by then and will provide a clearer picture of the balance between supply and demand and will enable the rate setters to take an informed data-based decision. He also stated that inflation in September was moving in the right direction. He thus confirmed our initial expectations that there would be more clarity on the next rate decision after the inflation for October is published on Nov 14.

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Inflation continued easing and eventually entered the 1-3% target band in August as it hit 2.9% y/y after exceeding 3% for more than a year. It continued easing to below-expected 2.5% y/y in September. Supply side shortages (like the draft of reservists) might not close fast enough to respond to potential surge in demand and are an important factor that can drive inflation higher, Abir reminded. Moreover, some elements of the consumer basket continue to have large prices volatility and rental prices are another risk due to the damages to buildings by Iranian rockets. The truce with Hamas has reduced geopolitical risks, also boosting the local currency, which has been easing inflation in the past months. However, the ceasefire remains fragile despite the efforts of the US to keep it alive. The latest inflation expectations, one of the major considerations the MPC is looking at when deciding on the policy rate, pointed to continued moderation in the inflation environment and the latest forecasters' inflation expectations for the next one year fell to a low not seen since early 2022.

GDP data point to a fall in GDP in Q2 but the BoI explained that this was the sole result of the Iran war and when excluded, GDP has continued increasing in Q2. It also said that high frequency indicators point to a strong recovery in the period since the hostilities with Iran ended and some indicators are at a higher level compared to the pre-Iran war position while others are still catching up. The BoI downgraded its growth forecast for this year in its July and September updates but increased it twice for 2026 as recovery after the wars is expected to be faster. The forecast envisaged an end of the war in early 2026 and therefore, it might turn out that growth might be higher this year, we think. BoI governor Yaron said that there are no indications for difficulties to obtain credit, which shows that there is no hurry for a rate cut. Thus, we think that the BoI would mainly consider inflation developments in its next rate sitting but would not hurry with a cut either if it is not convinced that inflation will not start accelerating again. Therefore, we think that both scenarios are equally probable at this point. The research department expects the policy rate to reach 3.75% in Q3 2026, according to the latest macroeconomic forecast update made before the ceasefire was reached. This is not a forecast of the MPC but has likely been endorsed and if fulfilled, this means three rate cuts in the next one year.

Board statements, press briefings, minutes from MPC meetings

Calendar of MPC meetings

Latest BoI macroeconomic forecasts

Monetary policy reports

Bank of Israel Law

The Monetary Committee

• Budget forecasts GDP growth of 2.9% next year and inflation near 2%
• Government outlines JOD 1.6bn in capital spending and expanded social protection programme
• Cabinet forecasts JOD 10.2bn in revenues, while expenditures are set at JOD 11.5bn in 2026 budget

Jordan's government, chaired by PM Hassan, approved the draft state budget law for the 2026 fiscal year, setting the stage for its constitutional referral to the parliament. Finance minister Abdul Hakim Shibli presented the draft's key assumptions, noting that the government expects steady economic expansion. According to the kingdom's state news agency Petra, real GDP growth is projected to accelerate from 2.7% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, surpassing 3% in both 2027 and 2028. The outlook is supported by major capital projects, including the National Water Carrier, the railway network, and new gas exploration and transport initiatives. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to remain among the lowest in the region, hovering around 2% over 2026-2028. Based on current projections, the overall budget deficit is expected to narrow to JOD 2.125bn in 2026, which is equivalent to 4.6% of GDP, compared with an estimated JOD 2.258bn, or 5.2% of GDP, in 2025.

The draft budget prioritizes the continued implementation of the 10-year Economic Modernization Vision plan and its strategic projects, which form a long-term national development agenda. It also aims to sustain fiscal and economic reforms to bolster financial stability, raise domestic revenue to cover current expenditures, and continue reducing the deficit and public debt relative to GDP. The 2026 budget maintains subsidies for bread and gas cylinders, continues financing social protection programmes and the treatment of Jordanian cancer patients, and allocates funds to support key sectors.

Domestic revenues are projected to reach JOD 10.196bn next year, aided by economic growth, while the 2025 estimate has been revised down by JOD 200mn due to regional instability and the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict. Current expenditures are forecast at JOD 11.456bn, reflecting higher operational costs, wage increases, new government positions, and sustained financing for the armed forces and security agencies. Interest payments are set to rise only slightly, to around JOD 2.26bn, amid ongoing efforts to replace high-cost borrowing with more competitive loans.

The draft budget includes JOD 655mn in sectoral support packages, including JOD 124mn for the new cancer insurance programme covering 4.1mn Jordanians, JOD 280mn for social protection, JOD 170mn for bread and fodder subsidies, and JOD 80mn for gas cylinder support. Allocations for medicines and medical supplies have been increased to about JD135 million.

Capital spending is projected at JOD 1.6bn in 2026, up from JOD 1.37bn in the revised 2025 estimate. Key allocations include JOD 396mn for Economic Modernization Vision projects, JOD 60mn for the National Water Carrier, JOD 35mn for the Risha gas field, and JOD 210mn for municipal development-an increase from JOD 180mn last year.

• Yield declines to 5.60% amid accelerating inflation
• Auction was fully subscribed, signaling high demand

Jordan's central bank sold 4-year T-bonds worth JOD 105mn at an auction that was held on Nov 6, according to a statement by the institution. The auction was fully subscribed, signaling strong investor interest. Therefore, the bids submitted for the 4-year T-bonds reached JOD 105mn, of which all were retained. The weighted average yield on the accepted bids printed at 5.60%, down from 6.09% in the preceding auction of the same instrument on Jan 9.

We remind that the country's central bank has cut its main interest rates five times since September 2024 in line with similar moves by the US Federal Reserve due to the peg of the local currency to the US dollar. Furthermore, the kingdom's CPI inflation has accelerated to 1.7% y/y in September, up from 1.3% y/y in the preceding month.

• Construction to begin in second half of 2026

The authorities have approved the first phase of the Nuwaiseeb IWPP (Independent Water and Power Project), which involves the development of a 3,600 megawatts (MW) natural gas-fired power plant and a desalination facility, according to news reports. The project has a budget of USD 3.6bn.

The Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) phase will conclude by the end of 2025, with the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contract planned for August 2026.

The first phase will feature turbines for combined-cycle gas power generation, desalination units, infrastructure, and associated facilities. The plant is expected to produce at least 75 MIGD (million imperial gallons per day) of desalinated water.​

This approval marks a milestone in Kuwait's energy development plans, emphasizing a blend of natural gas-fired generation and water desalination.

This project is part of Kuwait's broader effort to enhance its energy and water infrastructure, with a total planned capacity of 7,200 MW, developed through public-private partnerships.

The broader context is that Kuwait's energy sector is expanding, with plans to add over 14 gigawatts (GW) of electricity generation capacity by 2031 to meet increasing demand and prevent power outages. Rapid population growth and ongoing development projects mean that electricity demand, particularly peak load in summer, is continuously rising, straining existing infrastructure.

Nearly all of Kuwait's electricity generation relies on fossil fuels, primarily natural gas and oil (crude oil or fuel oil). Natural gas is increasingly favoured to free up crude oil for export. Kuwait aims to generate 15% of its power from renewable sources by 2030.

Kuwait has one of the highest per capita electricity consumption rates globally. This is because of extreme summer heat, which requires massive air conditioning (accounting for a significant portion of residential demand), and the energy-intensive process of water desalination (co-located with many power plants).

Additionally, electricity is subsidized by the government, leading to low consumer tariffs, which is a major factor contributing to excessive consumption and waste.

Historically, the sector has been state-owned and operated by the Ministry of Electricity, Water, and Renewable Energy (MEW). However, the country is increasingly adopting a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model for new, large-scale power and water projects.

Finally, the reader should note that one gigawatt equals 1,000 megawatts. In other words, 1 GW = 1,000 MW.

• Bilateral trade is just USD 350mn annually

Kuwait and Iran held the 13th meeting of their Joint Trade and Technical Commission in Kuwait City, pushing to clear long-standing barriers to business and revive commercial links frozen for more than a decade, according to Iran's Trade Promotion Organisation (TPO).

The two countries discussed ways to ease visa and residency rules for Iranian traders, simplify work permits, and promote investment in fisheries, agriculture and tourism.

Our understanding is that bilateral annual trade is about USD 350mn. Sanctions against Iran complicate its relations with Kuwait and other countries.

Kuwait and Iran do not have a land border but are on opposite sides of the Persian Gulf. Relations between the two countries have historically been cordial but have experienced significant periods of tension, most notably during the Iran-Iraq War (1980s) when Kuwait supported Iraq.

Additionally, Kuwait is sensitive to Iranian regional ambitions and its activities. Security agreements with the United States serve as a key element of its national defence, which Iran often opposes, advocating for an internal regional security mechanism.

A major point of ongoing contention is the Durra offshore natural gas field, which is shared by Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Disputes over demarcation and exploitation rights continue.

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia claim they have exclusive rights over the field, but Iran also claims a stake in the Durra field and called a Saudi-Kuwaiti agreement signed in 2022 to develop it illegal. The reader should note that Iran calls the natural gas field Arash.

Here is a table comparing Iran and Kuwait:

Kuwait's economy is the quintessential rentier state model, defined by an extreme reliance on oil revenue, which historically accounts for about 90% of government revenue, about 95% of export earnings, and about 60% of GDP.

Kuwait uses its vast oil wealth to fund an extensive welfare state. The government provides generous benefits, including free healthcare and education, and is the primary employer of Kuwaiti nationals.

Meanwhile, Iran's economy, while still significantly driven by oil and gas, is much larger and more complex, featuring a diversified non-oil industrial and service sector due to its large population and long history of state-led development.

Because of decades of severe international sanctions (especially targeting its oil and banking sectors), Iran has been forced to rely on non-oil sources for revenue and job creation. The non-oil sector accounts for a majority of Iran's GDP.

Sanctions force Iran to sell its crude oil at steep discounts.

Iran maintains robust non-oil trade, primarily with Asian partners like China, Turkey, and neighbouring Iraq and the UAE.

Here is a table comparing the economies of Kuwait and Iran:

• Tehran-backed group reaffirmed its right to self-defense as Israel warns of intensified operations
• US pressure Lebanon to enforce ceasefire and disarmament of Hezbollah

Iran-backed Hezbollah affirmed its right to self-defense and rejected any political negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, amid warnings from Israel of intensified operations against the group. The militant movement insisted that talks would not serve Lebanon's national interest and described its position as an open letter to the Lebanese people and their leaders.

The Lebanese government is scheduled to hold discussions on the progress of its efforts to disarm Hezbollah, the only group to retain weapons following the 1975-1990 civil war. Despite a ceasefire reached with Israel in November 2024 after months of hostilities, Israel continues to maintain troops in five southern Lebanese areas and conduct regular air strikes.

The ceasefire includes Lebanese government plans to develop a strategy for disarming Hezbollah, but Israeli officials have criticized Lebanon for slow implementation. Israel's PM Netanyahu has accused Hezbollah of attempting to rearm following significant losses in the previous conflict, which included the killing of the group's longtime chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024. Since the ceasefire, the US has increased pressure on Lebanese authorities to disarm Hezbollah, a move opposed by the group and its allies. Israel has also stepped up air strikes in recent weeks, citing operations against Hezbollah positions.

• Output and new orders rise for third straight month, albeit at softer pace
• Pessimism among private sector firms grows due to regional uncertainty

Lebanon's private sector Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 50.6 in October, down from 51.5 points in the preceding month, according to the latest S&P Global PMI report released today (Nov 5). The reading, well above the 50.0 no-change threshold, signaled a softer expansion in private sector business conditions.

Data Download

Survey results indicated that both output and new orders in Lebanon's private sector rose for the third consecutive month in October, though at a softer pace. The moderation in sales growth was partly attributed to heightened uncertainty. Furthermore, employment levels increased for the first time since February, marking a notable shift in labor market conditions. Although modest, the rate of job creation was the fastest recorded since August 2013, reflecting cautious optimism among firms.

However, business confidence weakened during the month. Persistent uncertainty and concerns over a possible escalation of regional tensions weighed heavily on sentiment, leaving private sector firms the most pessimistic they have been since July.

• Alliance to pause further increases in January, February, and March 2026

On Nov 2, the OPEC+ alliance decided to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in December. The alliance made this decision during a virtual meeting involving Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, who agreed to continue the gradual unwinding of previous output cuts.

The term OPEC+ alliance refers to OPEC plus a number of non-OPEC oil-producing countries, most notably Russia.

The production increase of 137,000 bpd will be implemented in December 2025, after which the group plans to pause further increases in January, February, and March 2026 due to seasonal factors. The move is part of an ongoing effort to balance market supply and demand amid a steady global economic outlook and low oil inventories.

The market barely reacted to the news. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil fell from USD 65 on Nov 2 to USD 64 at the moment. We expect the price of oil to remain at that level in November and December 2025.

Below is the required production table for the eight countries:

We should note that among these eight countries, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Algeria are members of OPEC. Russia, Kazakhstan, and Oman are not OPEC members.

The global oil market is currently navigating a period of downward pressure on crude prices, driven primarily by an emerging supply glut coupled with persistent concerns about global demand.

The most immediate bearish factor is a significant build in US crude oil inventories, which recently far exceeded market expectations. This, combined with planned OPEC+ production increases (as the group unwinds previous cuts) and robust non-OPEC output (notably from the US and Latin America), signals a growing global supply surplus in the final two months of 2025 and into early 2026.

Nevertheless, a note of caution is in order. Geopolitical events remain the most significant variable that could tighten the market and trigger a sharp, temporary price correction.

• Cryptocurrencies remain banned as payment method
• Law recognizes digital tokens to be managed only by licensed service providers

Morocco has officially published Bill 42.25, a draft law creating a regulatory framework for digital assets and decentralized finance, a first step towards controlled legalization of crypto markets. The draft law, developed with Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) and the Moroccan Capital Market Authority (AMMC), introduces a legal framework for crypto-assets and decentralized finance, aiming to protect investors, combat financial crime, foster innovation, and maintain financial stability.

While cryptocurrencies remain banned as a payment method, the law recognizes digital tokens-such as utility tokens and stablecoins-as financial assets to be managed only by licensed service providers. Oversight will be shared between BAM, responsible for stablecoins and asset-backed tokens, and the AMMC, which will license and monitor crypto service providers. The framework imposes strict transparency, AML/CFT, and data retention rules, with the National Financial Intelligence Authority (ANRF) supervising compliance. Violations like insider trading or market manipulation will carry heavy penalties, including fines and imprisonment. Excluded from the bill's scope are central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and cryptocurrency mining.

• To qualify, at least 40% of product's production cost must be generated in Morocco
• Local carmaker Neo Motors presents its E-NEO Dial-E, first African-made electric vehicle

Morocco has officially launched the "Made in Morocco" label, a new certification aimed at strengthening industrial sovereignty and promoting locally produced goods. Jointly introduced by the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the General Confederation of Moroccan Enterprises (CGEM) at the National Industry Day conference in Rabat,, the label seeks to guarantee both the Moroccan origin and the technical compliance of certified products. The Moroccan Institute for Standardization (IMANOR) will oversee the initiative that establishes a rigorous process including document verification, factory inspections, and ongoing quality monitoring. To qualify, at least 40% of a product's production cost must be generated in Morocco, or the product must undergo a significant transformation within the country. Non-compliance may lead to suspension or withdrawal of certification. Industry Minister Ryad Mezzour described the label as "a guarantee of added value and excellence," stressing that it is more than a simple mark of origin. It reflects the Kingdom's broader effort to support local industries, attract investment, and ensure that public procurement favors products with high national content.

At the same event, Moroccan automobile manufacturer Neo Motors presented its E-NEO Dial-E, the first African-made electric vehicle to obtain full EU approval under the L7e-CU standard. Entirely conceived and assembled in Morocco, the model will retail from MAD 99,800 starting January 2026, with a range of 150 km and a top speed of 85 km/h. The company plans to export its vehicles to Europe and the US.

• Qatar Airways owned stake since 2017

Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific will buy back Qatar Airways' entire 9.6% stake in the airline for USD 896mn through an off-market transaction, according to news reports. The deal involves 643mn shares repurchased. The buyback follows Qatar Airways' intention to dispose of its entire stake after holding it since 2017.

The transaction needs approval from at least three-fourths of the independent shareholders in an extraordinary general meeting. Cathay Pacific plans to fund this buyback from its internal resources and current credit lines.

Upon completion, conglomerate Swire Pacific's holding in Cathay will increase to 47.7%, and Air China's stake will rise to 31.8%.

The sale price represents roughly a 35% premium over what Qatar Airways initially paid for the stake. Despite the exit, both airlines will maintain their partnership through the oneworld Alliance.

Separately, Qatar Airways posted a 28% jump in annual net profit to a record USD 2.1bn in 2024.

Additionally, Qatar Airways recently purchased a 25% stake in Virgin Australia from its majority owner, Bain Capital. The deal has received regulatory approval from the Australian government. The deal is expected to intensify competition, particularly on international routes, challenging the dominance of the Qantas-Emirates alliance on the lucrative route between Australia and Europe.

• QatarEnergy to own a minority stake

QatarEnergy has signed two new production sharing contracts (PSC) for offshore Blocks 9 and 10 in Suriname, the state-owned company said.

QatarEnergy will hold a 20% working interest in Block 9, with its partners PETRONAS Suriname (the operator) holding 30%, Chevron holding 20%, and Staatsolie's affiliate, Paradise Oil Company (POC) holding 30%. Staatsolie is the national oil and gold company of Suriname and is wholly state-owned.

QatarEnergy will also hold a 30% working interest in Block 10, with its partners Chevron (the operator) holding 30%, PETRONAS Suriname holding 30%, and POC holding 10%.

Both blocks 9 and 10 are located offshore Suriname in water depths of up to 50 meters.

QatarEnergy also has an interest in Block 5 offshore Suriname and in offshore Blocks 64 and 65.

Suriname, which is located on the northeast coast of South America, is emerging as a significant player in offshore oil and natural gas exploration, with substantial recent discoveries and ongoing development efforts. It has estimated recoverable oil resources of more than 2.4bn barrels and natural gas reserves around 12.5tn cubic feet.

The oil sector contributes about 10% of Suriname's GDP.

• Foreign investors rushed to buy Saudi equity in Sep following news reports that kingdom will lift cap on foreign ownership
• Foreigner non-GCC investors held 4.7% of all shares on main market as of end-month
• Tadawul's total market capitalization fell by 5.9% since start of 2025, due to weaker oil prices, global and reginal challenges
• Foreigner non-GCC investors held 1.3% of shares issued on Nomu-parallel market and 2.2% of Sukuk/Bond market

Foreign investors (excluding GCC funds) bought SAR 44.0bn worth of shares on Tadawul's main market in October and sold shares worth SAR 43.0bn, resulting in a net acquisition of SAR 1.0bn (USD 270mn) worth of equity on the main market, according to data released by Tadawul. We remind foreign non-GCC funds bought USD 2.7bn worth of equity in September - the strongest net inflow since June 2024 - following reports that Saudi Arabia will lift the current 49% cap on foreign ownership in local listed companies and will ease the trading rules for foreigners. The reform aims to increase the representation of Saudi stocks in global indices such as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and attract more international investment. Additionally, it is intended to provide support to the Saudi stock market, which has lost 5.9% year-to-date, and assist financing for the kingdom's diversification plans. It is believed the reforms will be enacted by the end of the year. The GCC funds were net buyers in the month as well, with a strong net inflow of SAR 1.4bn. The total value of shares traded during the month was SAR 122bn, falling by 4.0% on the month. Bank shares topped the list for most value traded during the month, accounting for 18%, followed by Materials (15%), and Energy (11%).

Total equity market capitalization has fallen by strong 5.9% since the start of the year to SAR 9.67tn, with foreign non-GCC investors holding 4.7% of all equities issued on the main market (12.3% of free float). GCC's ownership was modest 0.8% and Saudi investors held 94.5% of all shares.

Parallel and Sukuk/Bond markets

Foreign investors were, however, net sellers on the Nomu-Parallel market, recording a net disposal of SAR 12.8mn in the month and their holdings accounted for 1.3% of all issued securities. The GCC investors were net buyers with SAR 3.5mn and held an even smaller share of 0.6%. Saudi investors accounted for the balance.

At the Sukuk/Bond segment, foreign non-GCC investors sold SAR 192mn worth of assets (net) in the month. They held SAR 15.6bn worth of debt notes at the end of the month, accounting for 2.2% of all holdings.

Three Saudi IPOs to raise USD 300mn this year (AGBI)

Global spotlight on Riyadh as Biban Forum 2025 opens (Arab News)

Biban 2025: Monsha'at report highlights surge in SME growth, funding (Arab News)

Saudi Arabia up 5 places in IMD digital competitiveness ranking (Arab News)

Saudi trade: 80% of global firms plan expansion in Kingdom (Arabian Business)

Saudi mineral wealth surges to USD 2.5tn as Kingdom enters 'exceptional' mining phase (Arabian Business)

• Food and hospitality costs soften the headline print in October
• Food inflation slows to 5.6% y/y as fresh produce and meat remain the main drivers
• Core inflation eases marginally to 5.1% y/y, signalling slow disinflation
• Prices rise 0.7% m/m lifted by post-sale rebound in clothing and household goods

Consumer price inflation eased to 4.9% y/y in October from 5.0% in September, confirming a gradual slowdown in price momentum, data released by stats office INS on Wednesday (Nov 5) showed. The moderation was broad-based, led by softer food and service inflation, though underlying pressures remain persistent.

Data Download

Food inflation slowed to 5.6% y/y, contributing about 1.6pps to the headline. Declines in edible oil prices helped offset still-strong increases in fresh produce and meat, suggesting easing some easing in supply-side constraints. Energy and housing prices were broadly stable, contributing little to overall inflation. The main non-food impulse came from manufactured goods, particularly clothing and household items, where post-sale price normalization drove the 0.7% m/m rise in the headline index.

Core inflation edged down to 5.1% y/y, maintaining a narrow lead over headline CPI and highlighting the slow pace of disinflation in unregulated goods and services. While services inflation eased to 4.2% y/y, restaurants and hotels remained among the stronger contributors to overall price growth.

Overall, the data suggest inflation is gradually stabilizing near 5%, supported by easing food and service costs but restrained from a faster decline by sticky core and unregulated components. The October reading points to a measured disinflation path rather than a decisive break in underlying price pressures.

• Angola celebrates 50 years of independence on Nov 11

President Joao Lourenco reaffirmed Angola's commitment to improving its business environment, saying the government has implemented policies to attract private and foreign investment but that results remain modest. Speaking to the Economic and Social Council, he urged greater risk-taking from entrepreneurs and highlighted ongoing state support for family farming, which now supplies much of the country's food. Lourenço called for increased output from SMEs in grain, livestock, and fisheries to achieve food self-sufficiency, supported by new funding lines. He also pointed to efforts to expand energy and water infrastructure, including transmission lines from major hydroelectric dams, to boost industrial activity. As Angola prepares to celebrate 50 years of independence on Nov 11, the president underscored the urgency of diversifying the economy and reducing reliance on crude oil exports to secure sustainable growth.

• President Steinmeier is first German head of state to visit Angola

Angola and Germany signed three cooperation agreements in Luanda covering transport, civil aviation, and agribusiness, during a visit by Presidents João Lourenço and Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Steinmeier is on a week-long African tour. He is the first German head of state to visit Angola.

The accords include an Air Transport Services Agreement to expand flight connectivity and technical collaboration, a contract between Angola's Transport Ministry, Lufthansa Consulting, and TAAG to modernize the national airline, and an MoU to create an Agro-industrial Development Center with Gauff Engineering Angola and CHB Investment Holding. President Lourenço highlighted Germany's role in Angola's energy and health sectors and invited more private investment from German firms, particularly in tourism and pharmaceuticals.

• Subscription period runs from Nov 3 to 25

The finance ministry has launched the second phase of its public debt program, offering up to USD 300 mn in OT-ME bonds denominated in both Kwanzas and US dollars, Lusa reported. The issuance, aimed at funding the 2025 General State Budget, forms part of a broader strategy to strengthen domestic financing and diversify funding sources and instruments. The bonds, with maturities of 5 and 8 years (maturing in August 2030 and 2033), will carry maximum interest rates of 5.00% and 7.00%, and pay semi-annual coupons. The subscription period runs from Nov 3 to 25 through authorized financial intermediaries. The domestic issue follows the successful sale of USD 1.75bn dual-tranche Eurobond in early October. The deal included USD 1bn maturing in 2030 at a 9.25% semi-annual coupon and USD 750mn maturing in 2035 at 9.78%. Investor demand reached USD 6bn, signaling renewed confidence in the country's macroeconomic outlook and fiscal management.

The last hefty payment due this year is a USD 864mn Eurobond maturing in November but the fresh funding will guarantee smooth repayment of remaining 2025 debt amortisation. The government expects to close 2025 with a fiscal (GFSM 2014) deficit of AOA 3.9tn, or 3.3% of GDP, significantly overshooting the original target AOA 1.5tn gap.

• Bilateral Market Access Protocol signed at WTO headquarters in Geneva
• Ethiopia advances toward full WTO membership as deal strengthens China-Africa trade and regional integration

Ethiopia and China have formally signed a Bilateral Market Access Protocol at the World Trade Organization (WTO) headquarters in Geneva, marking a significant step in Ethiopia's ongoing accession to the global trade body. The agreement, signed by Ethiopia's Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva, Tsegab Kebebew, and China's WTO Representative, Li Yongjie, concludes bilateral negotiations on trade in goods and services under Ethiopia's WTO accession framework. With this milestone, Ethiopia moves closer to finalizing all bilateral market access agreements, consolidating commitments required for full WTO membership.

Ethiopia's Permanent Mission in Geneva described the Protocol as a reaffirmation of the country's commitment to an open, development-oriented trading system that supports national transformation and aligns with Africa's broader vision for equitable participation in global markets. China's Charge d'Affaires in Addis Ababa, Sun Mingxi, highlighted Ethiopia's strategic continental role, noting its position as the political center of the African Union and a hub for China-Africa initiatives. He emphasized the FOCAC 2025-2027 Action Plan, identifying priority collaboration areas, including trade, industrial chain cooperation, agriculture, green development, infrastructure, health, and people-to-people exchanges.

Sun underscored Ethiopia-led initiatives such as the China-Africa Human Rights Cooperation Forum, which brought together 47 African countries. He also noted China's ongoing commitments to technology transfer, development assistance, and sustainable development, stressing that partnerships with Ethiopia amplify benefits continent-wide. The Protocol is expected to accelerate Ethiopia's WTO accession, bolster regional economic integration, and reinforce its role as a central partner in advancing Africa-China cooperation for sustainable growth and shared prosperity.

• It flags off GHS 77.8bn payables for verification
• These are preliminary results from audit of government payables ordered by govt
• Accumulated arrears were behind overrun of 2024 fiscal deficit on commitment basis

The auditor-general said it rejected a total of GHS 12.1tn government payables following an audit of outstanding commitments, claims and bank transfer advices as of Dec 31, 2024. The audit was conducted together with PwC and EY in the period May-Oct 2025 by engaging the ministries and agencies, contractors and suppliers where appropriate to verify and validate the claims. A large part of the rejected claims, about GHS 5bn or 41% of total, were to the energy ministry, while GHS 4.7bn or about 39% of total were in the roads and highways ministry. Aside from the rejected claims, the auditor-general flagged off GHS 77.8bn claims to be verified and gave contractors until Nov 7 to object to the rejection of their claims and provide necessary documents to support those that need verification. After this date, the claims that remained unverified will be expunged from the from the government's official arrears and commitments register.

We note that the finance ministry attributed the significant primary deficit in 2024 to the accumulated payables, and pledged to tighten fiscal controls including conducting an audit of all claims. The payables buildup was put at GHS 67.5bn resulting in a 2024 primary deficit on commitment basis of GHS 45.9bn or 3.9% of GDP which compared to a targeted surplus of GHS 5.5bn or 0.5% of GDP. The overall fiscal deficit on commitment basis reached 7.9% of GDP, exceeding the 3.6% target.

Rice glut deepens as farmers struggle to sell last year's harvest (Joy FM)

PDS acknowledges London tribunal ruling, says lawyers reviewing decision in ECG dispute (Joy FM)

PDS loses $390m claim as London arbitration tribunal rules in favour of ECG (Joy FM)

17 killed in galamsey incidents in first half of 2025 - Minority (Citi Newsroom)

Ghana missed chance to transform ECG through PDS deal - Kwabena Donkor (Citi Newsroom)

We're providing fertiliser, tractors and implements to boost prison farming - Mahama (Starr FM)

Energy Commission deepens engagement with stakeholders to strengthen energy sector (Class FM)

PDS $390m case: London panel ruling favours ECG, brings relief to GoG (Class FM)

• Ruling puts an end to proceedings that have lasted nearly three years
• Arbitration proceedings followed cancellation of PDS's management contact for ECG in 2019

A London arbitration tribunal ruled in favour of power utility ECG in the case brought by Power Distribution Services Ghana seeking USD 390mn compensation for the termination of its management contract with ECG. The resolution of the case comes after three years of proceedings and finally puts an end to the dispute which follows the decision of the previous government to cancel the concession agreement with PDS in October 2019, just seven months after signing it, citing irregularities in the provided guarantees. Later, it signalled intentions to find a new investor but nothing came out of it while the ECG faced more financial challenges.

Shortly after he was elected in late 2024, President John Mahama said he would consider the possibility of privatising ECG but following public criticism, he clarified that the government would not privatise it but rather seek a public-private partnership to increase the efficiency of the electricity distribution system.

The ECG has faced operational challenges and the utilities regulator PURC warned last year that the difficult financial situation of the company could lead to its bankruptcy. The PURC noted that despite efforts to improve bill collection and tariff increases by a total of more than 75% since September 2022, the ECG has continued facing financial challenges and has been unable to raise enough revenue to meet its obligations. One of the major issues is the debt to IPPs which has been put at USD 1.5-2.0bn although there are no official numbers on it.

• Disinflation is becoming broad-based, signalling underlying price pressures are easing beyond food
• Focus shifts to MPC meeting in last week of November as IMF urges caution and policy discipline

Ghana's consumer inflation eased to 8.0% y/y in October from 9.4% y/y in September, marking the tenth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest rate in more than four years, according to the latest data reported by the stats office. The print was a positive surprise to market consensus which projected a rate of 9.3% y/y. The moderation was broad-based across most divisions, with price growth slowing in both food and non-food categories.

Data Download

The CPI slipped by 0.4% m/m, reversing the 0.9% m/m increase recorded in September. The continued disinflation was primarily driven by easing food prices as the main harvest season improved market supplies, particularly for key staples such as plantain, yam, and vegetable oils. The Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) noted that food inflation fell to 9.5% y/y, from 11.0% y/y in September, lowering its contribution to the headline rate from 4.7pps to 4.1pps.

Non-food inflation also softened, easing to 6.9% y/y from 8.2% y/y a month earlier, as housing, household equipment, and personal care categories recorded slower price growth. Services inflation declined marginally, suggesting that earlier cost pressures from utilities and education have largely dissipated. Transport inflation remained in deflationary territory at -4.0% y/y, implying relative stability in fuel and logistics costs. Still, operators in the sector continued to face elevated input costs in the past two months. The Ghana Private Road Transport Union (GPRTU) warned in mid-October that sustained increases in fuel and spare parts prices could force fare hikes if government interventions failed to stabilise pump prices. Those interventions appear to be having an effect as in the first pricing window of November, market leader Star Oil reduced petrol and diesel prices to GHS 11.97/litre and GHS 12.47/litre, respectively, representing one of the most significant cuts in months.

Combined with favourable harvest conditions and contained non-food inflation, these developments strengthen the outlook for continued, though slower, disinflation into year-end, supporting the case for inflation to remain within the 6-10% target range in the near term. The Bank of Ghana made considerable progress in curbing inflation which allowed it to cut the main policy rate by 650bps since the peak at 28%. The IMF resident representative Adrian Alter urged the central bank to maintain the cautious approach and keep an eye on the real interest rate. He said policy discipline would be critical to sustain the disinflation progress and support investor confidence. In a related note, the central bank announced this week that the MPC meeting will be held in the last week of November and the rate decision will be announced on Wednesday, Nov 26.

• Party claims arrest has no factual or legal basis
• It calls it part of a strategy of "systematic repression of dissenting voices" and "silencing the opposition"
• Party to discuss recent arrests of its activists which they claim neared 1,300

The opposition PPA-CI denounced the arrest of one of its vice presidents, Damana Adia Pickass earlier this week. The party, which was formed by ex-president Laurent Gbagbo and is considered one of the two biggest opposition parties in the country, described the arrest as "blatant manipulation of the justice system for political ends" and part of a strategy of "systematic repression of dissenting voices" and "silencing the opposition." Adia Pickass was arrested in the eastern suburbs of Abidjan on Nov 4 in what the public prosector said was a procedure against alleged acts of "calls for popular insurrection and the overthrow of institutions" in connection with the peaceful march that the opposition attempted to hold on Oct 11 despite the ban issued by the authorities.

However, the PPA-CI said the accusations against their top official had no solid factual or legal basis and said the party's central committee would meet on Nov 6 to discuss the series of "arbitrary arrests and detentions" of its activists lately. The party claimed that almost 1,300 members and supporters of the party are currently being held in various prisons across the country for having protested against what the party describes as a "violation of the constitution" during the presidential election. The PPA-CI together with PDCI, which together formed the opposition alliance Common Front, have protested the exclusion of their leaders from the presidential race and the fourth term by President Alassane Ouattara which they claim is unconstitutional.

NSE valuation nears Sh3trn milestone as shares surge (Business Daily)

Why Kenya Power is rationing electricity to some areas (Business Daily)

How Ruto's UDA is dealing with ODM's 'blackmail' (Nation)

Electricity supply shortfall fuels fresh load shedding (Nation)

CS Wandayi roots for technology to address energy sector challenges (The Standard)

Business activities expand to 42-month high in October - PMI (The Star)

University Lecturers to resume duty after deal with govt (Kenya Broadcasting Corporation)

Family Bank secures Ksh 1.3B facility for MSME lending (Kenya Broadcasting Corporation)

Chaos as Kenyan Workers Storm Factory Over Mistreatment by Foreign Nationals (Kenyans.co.ke)

Govt Breaks Silence on Kenyans in Distress in Tanzania (Kenyans.co.ke)

• Suspension exposes deep fractures within the official opposition
• It raises doubts about the MK Party's credibility as unified force against the ANC

Factional cracks inside the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party have widened again, with deputy president and parliamentary leader John Hlophe suspended after an apparent power clash with party leader Jacob Zuma's inner circle. The move, announced late Wednesday in a statement by the party's head of presidency and Zuma ally, Magasela Mzobe, underscores the instability in the official opposition party.

According to the statement, Hlophe's unilateral decision to replace chief whip Colleen Makhubele with Des van Rooyen was overturned, with Mzobe saying Hlophe acted without consulting Zuma who was out of the country in Burkina Faso. The suspension cements Zuma's tightening grip over the MK Party and signals deepening factionalism that could undermine its parliamentary cohesion. The MK Party was largely seen as a populist alternative to the ANC but is increasingly looking like a one-man show undermined by its own contradictions.

• GNU partners will meet to discuss their differences on foreign policy
• DA leader calls for South Africa to ditch ideological loyalties and trade pragmatically with all sides

The GNU has finally faced the need to address the foreign policy differences among its members and reach a coherent position that ultimately serves the people more than it fosters ideological narratives. DA leader and agriculture minister John Steenhuisen is taking aim at the ANC's long-standing monopoly on foreign policy, calling for a shift from "non-aligned in name only" to something genuinely balanced and pragmatic. The DA and other parties in the GNU have called on the ANC to stop pretending neutrality while cozying up to Moscow and Beijing. Steenhuisen told the Daily Maverick after the two-day GNU leaders' retreat held by president Cyril Ramaphosa over the weekend that the parties will be meeting to iron out their positions on foreign policy.

The upcoming lekgotla will test whether the ANC can tolerate a move away from its ideological comfort zone, where solidarity rhetoric often trumps economic logic. According to the DA, South Africa should act in its own interests, not as a proxy in other people's wars. Steenhuisen suggested learning from the position of other truly non-aligned states such as India, Malaysia and Vietnam which are able to trade with both parts of the world.

The ANC insists foreign policy is already set in stone and "rooted in the Constitution," as foreign minister Ronald Lamola put it. However, GNU partners want a say in steering the course forward. Steenhuisen's push to re-evaluate trade blocs, pursue deals with Japan and Southeast Asia, and rethink the SACU straitjacket signals a pragmatic pivot the ANC has resisted for years. While no miracles should be expected in the short-term is a positive signal that issues will be discussed.

• Ramaphosa called GNU leaders to a retreat over the weekend but not to inform them he will be stepping down
• Ramaphosa will be replaced as ANC leader in 2027 but his presidency mandate expires in 2029

Cyril Ramaphosa's special envoy to the Central African Republic (CAR), Benjani Chauke, strongly refuted rumours that the president was preparing to exit the government. Chauke and other leaders who attended the two-day president's retreat over the weekend confirmed for News24 that there were no plans for the president to step down ahead of the end of his mandate in 2029. The rumours stem from an article in the Sunday Times this week, which claimed there were intense speculations in the high echelons of the ANC that the president was preparing to exit the government after he hosts the G20 meetings in Johannesburg. Chauke dismissed the rumours as irresponsible and unfounded. He said the president's mandate was given by more than 60% of the people's representatives in parliament, stretching beyond party interests. "If there is a moment the president may consider shortening the term he has been mandated to complete, it will be when the parties represented in parliament decide," Chauke added. "It should be stated unequivocally that the president of South Africa is not resigning," his advisor said.

Besides facing pressure from the DA, which is Ramaphosa's main ally in the coalition government, the president and his party is also pressured by US president Donald Trump who has stated a number of times that there are very bad things happening in South Africa. Trump said he would not attend the G20 summit in Johannesburg and that South Africa should not be even in the Gs. Ramaphosa will have to step down as the leader of the ANC at the national elective conference in 2027 which will replace him after two terms at the helm pf the party. He will have to remain as president of South Africa for two years after he is replaced as party leader. Although he is not required to step down as president of South Africa, this may weaken his position and may create further tensions in the government.

Discount power deals shift burden to households, warns Eskom (www.businessday.co.za)

Godongwana says drafting of procurement rules nearing finalisation (www.businessday.co.za)

Campaign against SA grows in world trade standoff (News24)

Rand hits worst level in a month as doubts over US rate cuts grow (News24)

17 South Africans trapped in Ukraine after being 'lured to join mercenary forces' (News24)

Zuma suspends Hlophe, reverses Des van Rooyen appointment (News24)

Mkhwanazi in Special Task Force uniform on TV conjured up images of a coup - Cachalia (News24)

DA, ANC, PA defection drama reshapes Western Cape 2026 election battle (News24)

Special envoy to CAR denies 'irresponsible' rumours of Ramaphosa's resignation after G20 (News24)

UPDATE | Ex-ANC leaders cross to DA, signalling tides of change in Western Cape politics (News24)

Eskom successfully appeals employment equity judgment (Moneyweb)

Africa's trade deal with the US left in limbo (Moneyweb)

Scorpions' 2009 disbandment 'a mistake, and SA's problems prove it' - Firoz Cachalia (Daily Maverick)

GNU parties will meet to smooth out foreign policy differences, says Steenhuisen (Daily Maverick)

Question:

Do you think the MTBPS will be much of a market event?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: MTBPS preview: Fiscal consolidation holds despite weak growth

Answer:

Yes, the MTBPS is usually very closely watched and there is potential for a move. This year there is suspense around the potential announcement of a new inflation target. If the Treasury adopts the lower target officially, this could be a boost for local assets in the long run, entrenching expectations and providing support for investment and growth. However, it could also mean that the SARB can reduce the policy rate in November, counting on better anchoring from coordinated messaging in the budget and the MPC, which could undermine the rand in the short-term. Of course, the rand is strongly dependent on the external drivers and dollar strength

• Bobi Wine's convoy was stopped by ruling NRM supporters
• Clashes between his and NRM supporters leave several persons injured

Main opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, also known as Bobi Wine, was blocked from holding a campaign rally in Kiruhura district following violent clashes between supporters of his party NUP and the ruling NRM. Kiruhura is where President Yoweri Museveni's country home is and is considered a stronghold of the president. Bobi Wine was set to address supporters in Kiruhura as part of his tour of western Uganda but was stopped by groups of NRM supporters who blocked his convoy from reaching the planned venues. Later, NRM supporters confronted NUP supporters and forced the police to intervene, but it could not stop the violent clashes which left several people injured. Bobi Wine noted that he was blocked from rallying in Kiruhura in 2021 too and called for equal campaign rights for all candidates regardless of political affiliation.

• Upcoming Lobito Corridor Business Forum (12-14 Nov) to highlight investment opportunities in energy, mining, and agriculture
• Feasibility and financing studies underway to link Zambia to Angola's rail and road network
• Over 600 delegates, including President Hichilema and EU Commissioner Sikela, expected to attend

The European Union (EU) has announced plans to expand electricity transmission to Zambia's Copperbelt and North-Western provinces under the Lobito Corridor development framework, which connects Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Zambia. EU Ambassador to Zambia Karolina Stasiak said the initiative will advance regional connectivity and strengthen Zambia's energy and transport infrastructure.

Speaking at a media briefing in Lusaka, Stasiak said the EU-Zambia Lobito Corridor Business Forum, scheduled for Nov 12-14, will showcase investment opportunities in agriculture, mining, and energy. She noted that the corridor, endorsed by the African Union, aims to link central Africa to global markets through the Atlantic Ocean and fits within Zambia's 8th National Development Plan goal of becoming a land-linked economy. Stasiak added that feasibility studies and financing plans are being finalised to connect Zambia's road and rail networks to existing infrastructure in Angola. "Before the road and railway infrastructure is built, preparatory work is already ongoing," she said, noting that rehabilitation works in Angola and the DRC are already underway.

The EU, she said, will also channel existing programmes to support energy access and smallholder development in the Copperbelt and North-Western regions. This includes ongoing EU-backed investments in the rehabilitation of the Kariba Dam and the Zambia-Tanzania interconnector. Over 600 participants are expected at next week's forum, including President Hakainde Hichilema and EU Commissioner for International Partnerships Jozef Sikela. Discussions will focus on investment partnerships, environmental standards, and accelerating cross-border energy and transport integration under the EU's Global Gateway strategy.

We recall that in June, Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane signed Letters of Intent with the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the EU in Rome, advancing Zambia's role in the Lobito Corridor infrastructure initiative. The signing took place on the sidelines of a High-Level Meeting on the "Mattei Plan and the EU Global Gateway," co-chaired by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Under the AfDB agreement, Zambia committed to constructing 550km of railway between Chingola and the Angola border, and 260km of main road from Chisese to Mwinilunga and Jimbe. A parallel agreement with the EU reaffirmed joint commitment to the corridor's realisation, with Zambia positioning itself as a critical hub for regional trade and industrial development. The initiative aligned with the EU Global Gateway Strategy, which targeted up to EUR 150bn in investments for Africa by 2027, mobilised through both public and private financing.

• Says over 70% of agriculture budget still absorbed by FISP and FRA crowding out diversification
• Load shedding, limited farm block funding, and low NHIMA allocation flagged as risks
• Committee urges fiscal discipline, energy reforms, and timely CDF disbursement

The Parliamentary Committee on Expanded Planning and Budgeting has recommended that the government reposition the Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) as a standalone intervention under the Ministry of Finance and National Planning, citing inefficiencies and the need for greater accountability. Committee Chairperson Fred Chaatila told Parliament that over 70% of the agriculture budget continues to be absorbed by FISP and the Food Reserve Agency (FRA), leaving little room for research, mechanisation, and extension services. He warned that the dominance of maize under FISP undermines Zambia's goal of crop diversification. Chaatila noted that while the 2026 budget includes funding for the rehabilitation of 430 km of roads and 200 km of power lines across farm blocks, the allocations remain inadequate given their strategic role in agricultural diversification. The committee also expressed concern that load shedding could threaten Zambia's projected 6.4% GDP growth for 2026 and urged government to accelerate investments in energy generation and distribution.

On fiscal management, the committee welcomed the government's commitment to macroeconomic stability within the ZMW 253.1bn 2026 budget (27.4% of GDP) but urged stronger domestic resource mobilisation, prudent borrowing, and faster implementation of tax reforms. Chaatila further called for increased funding to the National Health Insurance Management Authority (NHIMA), timely social cash transfer disbursements, and the establishment of the Lands Commission to improve governance and revenue mobilisation. He also urged timely release of the ZMW 6.2bn Constituency Development Fund (CDF) to enhance project execution and service delivery.

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Energy Regulation Board warns against unlicensed LPG trading, sets December 31 deadline (Zambia Monitor)

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• IHS Zambia receives clearance for 129 sites; Airtel Zambia for 55

The government has approved the construction of more than 200 telecommunication towers across Zambia as part of efforts to expand digital access while maintaining strict environmental and safety standards. Green Economy and Environment Minister Mike Mposha said the approvals mark a significant step toward improving connectivity and supporting the digital transformation agenda. According to Mposha, IHS Zambia has been granted full approval for 129 sites, while 23 additional sites have received provisional "Letters of Comfort" from the Zambia Environmental Management Agency (ZEMA). Airtel Zambia, meanwhile, secured full approval for 55 sites and provisional clearance for another 52, although 37 projects remain pending final reports and 12 await documentation submission. He revealed that Airtel Zambia is currently constructing 73 new towers in Lusaka, 29 of which are already underway with the remaining sites scheduled for completion by December this year. The Minister added that the Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA) will conduct physical inspections to ensure adherence to timelines and regulatory standards. The expansion of tower infrastructure is expected to enhance network coverage and support the government's broader goal of digital inclusion, particularly in underserved rural areas.

• Copperbelt tops list with 179,956 registrations; Eastern and Southern provinces follow
• ECZ extends joint mobile NRC and voter registration exercise beyond initial 90 days, commission targets 3.5mn new voters

The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) says it has registered 1,224,072 new voters as of Oct 31, following the completion of four phases of the ongoing mass voter registration exercise. The figure represents significant progress from the 259,000 new voters reported after phase two in October, though still below the overall target of 3.5mn ahead of the 2026 general elections. ECZ Chief Executive Officer Brown Kasaro said the Commission observed a notable increase in registration during the last two phases, with several districts recording higher turnout at registration centres. Copperbelt Province led with 179,956 new voters, followed by Eastern with 157,780 and Southern with 157,317. Kasaro noted that provincial variations reflected differences in the number of eligible voters rather than uneven performance across regions. The ECZ has since extended the joint exercise beyond the initial 90-day period to reach areas previously underserved during NRC issuance. Kasaro reaffirmed the Commission's goal of registering 3.5mn additional eligible voters and called on stakeholders to intensify voter mobilisation efforts within their communities. The ECZ, he added, remains committed to ensuring a transparent, inclusive, and credible registration process ahead of the 2026 polls.

• Fund says program advancing but challenges persist; key financial and governance reforms underway
• Zambia shows resilience post-drought: GDP up 4.5% in H1-2025, projected 5.2% in 2025 and 5.8% in 2026
• Says inflation eases in 2025 amid lower fuel and food prices, firmer kwacha, and tight policy
• Current account posts 2.0% of GDP deficit in H1-2025

An IMF mission led by Mercedes Vera Martin visited Lusaka from Oct 22 to Nov 4, to discuss recent developments and policy priorities under Zambia's ECF-supported program. The mission's preliminary findings underline that the economy has shown resilience after last year's drought supported by a record maize harvest and strong mining output while program implementation has continued to make progress. Staff will prepare a report that, subject to management and Executive Board consideration, will determine the next formal step under the program.

The Fund's read on the macroeconomic outlook is cautiously positive. Real GDP outturns and near-term data point to a pickup in activity (3.8% in 2024; 4.5% in H1-2025), and staff see growth strengthening to about 5.2% in 2025 and 5.8% in 2026. Inflationary pressures have eased in 2025 helped by lower fuel and food prices, exchange-rate appreciation, and tight monetary policy though limited hydropower generation and periodic load management remain constraints for non-mining activity. Preliminary external data show a current-account deficit of roughly 2.0% of GDP in the first half of 2025.

On policy and reform, the mission notes progress while flagging remaining challenges. Authorities are advancing legislative work to strengthen financial-sector supervision, improve oversight and governance of state-owned enterprises, and bolster the anti-corruption framework in line with program commitments. Discussions also covered measures to enhance private-sector participation in agriculture and the implementation of the open-access framework for the Tazama pipeline. Liquidity conditions have improved, investor demand for government securities remains strong, and private-sector credit growth has supported manufacturing, agriculture and energy. "The authorities reaffirmed their strong commitment to policies aimed at preserving macroeconomic stability and sustaining growth," the mission said reinforcing that fiscal consolidation, buffer rebuilding and continued reform momentum will be key to anchoring confidence while the staff report moves to the Executive Board.

We recall that the government seeks a 12-month extension of its IMF ECF, aiming to secure additional financial support, by the end of the year, Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane told Bloomberg recently. The existing USD 1.7bn arrangement was due to expire in October, but the IMF agreed to extend it for three months to allow completion of the final review and lay the groundwork for future programme engagement. Musokotwane said that the extra year could come with financial backing to strengthen Zambia's fiscal resilience against shocks and unexpected developments.