EmergingMarketWatch coverage of Egypt will be limited on 07 May 2026 due to a public holiday.

• M/M decline due to a drop in foreign assets of commercial banks, which was exacerbated by rising liabilities
• EGX recorded capital outflows of USD 1.7bn and USD 2.0bn in Feb and Mar
• Exit of portfolio investors was orderly throughout March, portfolio outflows reversed in April

The Net Foreign Assets (NFA) of the banking system (banks + CBE) fell by strong EGP 149bn or 11.3% m/m to EGP 1,165bn as of end-March, following a 5.2% m/m drop in the preceding month, according to data released by the central bank. However, if we take into account the 12% m/m depreciation of the pound, we actually get a much sharper 22.1% m/m drop in the value of NFAs to USD 21.3bn as of-end March. That drop reflects falling assets of commercial banks (-USD 3.6bn m/m) and the central bank (-USD 0.7bn m/m), which was exacerbated by a USD 1.8bn m/m increase in foreign liabilities. We usually attribute the movements in the bank's foreign assets to capital outflows, as the banks take the hit from capital flights. Foreign investors were indeed net sellers of equity and debt instruments through the local bourse, selling net USD 1.7bn in February and another USD 2.0bn in March. Further, more expensive energy imports, external debt payments, and the clearing of energy arrears also dragged on foreign assets in March. However, portfolio outflows reversed in April, and the local bourse recorded a strong USD 2.3bn inflow, so we expect to see a rebound in banks' NFAs next month.

Data Download

We remind the system-wide NFAs stood at USD 22bn net liability as of end-February 2024 and their strong improvement since then was due to USD 35bn UAE deal and a surge of portfolio inflows that followed the pound's float and the securing of massive external financing. While this massive inflow of hot money has raised the risks related to capital outflows and roll over risks, Egypt has largely emerged unscathed from the sell-offs that marked 2025 thanks to recent reforms and relatively large external reserves. Not surprisingly, the Iran War triggered capital outflows, but EGX figures and FX reserve data suggest that the capital outflows were orderly and relatively muted during March, before reversing to capital inflows in April.

• Expansion expected to double Egypt's annual production capacity to 600k tons

Egypt signed an agreement with Singapore-based commodities trader Trafigura to expand the Nag Hammadi aluminum complex in a project valued at between USD 750mn and USD 900mn, according to the local press. The investment is expected to add 300k tons of annual production capacity - matching EgyptAlum Company's current output - and thus bringing Egypt's total capacity to about 600k tons a year. The expansion will be carried out through a JV responsible for construction and operations, financed through a mix of equity and loans from international banks. EFG Hermes is acting as financial adviser on the transaction. Under the agreement, Trafigura is expected to supply key raw materials, including alumina, and support marketing through long-term contracts designed to ensure stable cash flows.

PM Madbouly, who attended the signing ceremony, said the deal is part of Egypt's strategy to deepen local manufacturing, strengthen key industries, and maximise returns on state assets through greater efficiency. He added that the government aims to increase exports and modernise industrial operations through capacity expansion and technology upgrades in cooperation with the private sector.

Egyptian Pound gains ground against US dollar by week's end (Ahram)

Egypt's inflation accelerates by 1.2% in April: CAPMAS (Ahram)

Egypt, Singaporean Trafigura ink USD 900 mln aluminium expansion deal in Upper Egypt (Ahram)

Egypt's foreign reserves hit USD 53bn in April: CBE (Ahram)

Egypt targets EGP 3.7tn in investments for FY 2026/27 with 59% from private sector (Ahram)

Egypt's auto sales rise 3.2% m/m in March (Zawya)

Egypt's transit trade leaps 35% YoY in Q1 2026: FinMin Kouchouk (Zawya)

Egypt's tourism grows 21% in 2025, growth continues into early 2026 (Zawya)

Petrojet signs EPCCS deal for Algeria's Hassi Bir Rekaiz Phase II project (Zawya)

Egypt Signs Agreement with BP, Harbour Energy to Develop Mediterranean Oil, Gas (Sada Elbalad)

Egypt posts 5% GDP growth in Jan-Mar (Egypt Today)

Egypt's trade deficit jumps 87.5% y/y to USD 5.1bn in February 2026 (Egypt Today)

Egypt signs Lebanon gas infrastructure rehabilitation agreement through TGS (Egypt Today)

• Exports fell 11.6% y/y driven by fertilizers, plastics, and crude oil exports
• Israel halted gas supplies to Egypt in March, which dragged on industry and LNG exports from Egypt
• Imports jumped 24.7% y/y, driven by gas, iron and steel, and copper
• Trade deficit widened by 3.5% to USD 52bn last year, equal to 14% of GDP
• Egypt highly dependable on gas imports, war in Iran is a major external shock
• LNG imports jumped 81% to USD 8.9bn in 2025 as gas production weakened and demand for electricity rose

The foreign trade deficit soared by 87.6% y/y to USD 5.1bn in February following an increase of 15.0% y/y in January, according to data published by CAPMAS. The increase was due to a strong 11.6% y/y drop in export revenues and a strong 24.7% y/y jump in imports, especially non-oil imports. Imports are generally supported by growing domestic consumption and investments, and February saw increases in gas, iron and raw steel, and copper imports. Needless to say, the War in Iran and the spike in energy and food prices that it triggered is a major shock for Egypt, which has become heavily reliant on gas imports to meet its energy needs. Furthermore, the country has increasingly relied on more expensive LNG imports, making it vulnerable to oil and gas price swings and supply disruptions. On a positive note, Israel restored restored gas supplies to Egypt to their pre-war levels in early April, which should ease some of the pressures on the merchandise petroleum balance. Further, Egypt secured Libyan crude oil shipments, and the crude is very similar to the one produced in Egypt, so the refineries should have no problems adding it to their crude intakes.

Data Download

We remind that Egypt recorded a USD 52bn trade deficit in 2025, which accounts for about 14% of GDP. The trade deficit rose by 3.5% on the year as imports rose 8.8% y/y to USD 104bn driven by higher petroleum and non-petroleum imports. Crude oil imports doubled to USD 1.5bn in 2025, fuel imports held steady at USD 10.4bn, but LNG imports soared 81% y/y to USD 8.9bn. As noted, Egypt has become heavily reliant on gas imports to meet its energy needs - Egypt was expected to pay USD 12bn for gas imports in 2026, but that was before LNG prices soared. Meanwhile, wheat imports fell by 20% to USD 3.7bn in 2025. We attribute this decline to rising domestic produce on one hand, and the weak capacity of the military-owned agency that took over the grain import operation from GASC, on the other. Overall, imports have been rising steadily following a major currency reform that boosted private consumption, non-oil manufacturing, and investments. The country, however, remains heavily dependent on food and energy imports, which makes it vulnerable to a prolonged war in the Gulf. Egypt thus needs to continue with the structural reforms in order to make the economy more competitive and to face the more uncertain global trade environment.

Data Download

Overall, Egypt's trade goods account remains vulnerable to external shocks as the country relies heavily on imports for non-elastic goods such as food and fuels, while major infrastructure projects and growing urban population have fueled imports. The merchandise oil balance is set to remain in deficit for fourth year in a row in 2026, but at least it seems the country has avoided a crippling energy crisis, at least for now.

• Analysts expected 4.6% y/y growth as Iran War drags on economic outlook

GDP growth slowed to 5.0% y/y in Q1 2026 from 5.3% y/y in the preceding quarter, according to preliminary figures released by the planning ministry. GDP growth actually beat market expectations for 4.6% y/y growth as it appears the economy is more resilient to the jump in oil prices and supply disruptions caused by the war in Iran. Economic growth averaged 5.2% y/y during the first three quarters of 2025/26, which aligns with the government's target of 5.2% GDP growth for the fiscal year and is significantly better than the IMF's 4.2% forecast.

Update. Planning minister Rostom highlighted strong growth across several non-oil sectors during the quarter:

• The Suez Canal recorded growth of 23.6% y/y, while the restaurants and hotels sector expanded by 8.3% y/y and the construction sector grew by 5.6% y/y. He said that maritime traffic improved steadily, allowing the Suez Canal to maintain positive growth for the third consecutive quarter despite regional instability.
• Rostom added that non-oil manufacturing activity continued to post positive growth of 2.1% y/y. Industrial production, reflected in the manufacturing index, recorded strong performance across several subsectors including wood products (+60% y/y), motor vehicle manufacturing (+27% y/y), chemical industries (+10% y/y), and pharmaceuticals (+8% y/y), while both paper and food industries expanded by 4% y/y. The minister also said the construction sector rebounded strongly during the quarter after contracting in the previous quarter, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects and urban expansion efforts. He noted increased sales of iron and cement compared to the same period last year.
• Rostom also noted that the contraction in the extractive industries sector has eased amid intensified drilling and exploration programs, which have recently boosted oil and gas production. He highlighted government efforts to support foreign partners through supply facilitation measures and by settling a significant portion of outstanding dues. These efforts helped reduce arrears owed to foreign partners from USD 6.1bn in June 2024 to around USD 700mn, with the government aiming to fully settle all remaining obligations by the end of June. The minister added that multiple oil and gas discoveries announced during March and April are expected to improve production levels and support stronger sector growth during Apr-Jun quarter.

Question:

Do you know if there is any CBE PDF that has calendar of publications?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: Tourism arrivals

Answer:

No there is no release calendar published by the CBE. The central bank recommends using the IMF's Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (here), which has an advance release calendar, but it lacks most of the monthly stats. Note that EMW's website also provides a release calendar for Egypt where we are doing our best to keep up with the most important statistics that have regular releases.

Back to CBE, they publish some stats on regular basis - Core CPI is published in the afternoon of the 10th day of each month, a monthly CPI report is published on 15th, FX reserves are published between the 5th and the 7th day of each month, and the quarterly BoP is also published regularly. The NFAs, together with monetary aggregates, are published in the first 1-3 days of each month, and remittances are published in the last week of the month.

There are other important stat releases that are not published regularly, such as the stock of T-bills owned by foreigners, external sector reports, merchandise oil balance, and a few others.

I hope this is helpful. Again, you can find these stats and their approximate release dates on our website, just look for the Calendar button.

• Government wants to develop domestic military industry

The UAE has announced a partnership between Tawazun Council for Defence Enablement and AD Ports Group to develop the Al Selmiyyah Defence Industrial Free Zone in Abu Dhabi.

This initiative targets the attraction of global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to localize defence production, deepen supply chains, and elevate the nation's long-term military readiness.

Tawazun Council, the UAE's defence and security acquisitions authority for the armed forces and Abu Dhabi police, will establish regulatory frameworks, issue licenses, and enforce industrial compliance to align with national security priorities. AD Ports Group serves as the strategic partner for master planning, land use design, infrastructure development, and integration with global logistics networks, drawing on its expertise in industrial zones.

AD Ports Group has a footprint spanning over 50 countries and manages 36 ports and terminals globally. Listed on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX), the Group operates a vertically integrated ecosystem that combines world-class ports, specialized economic zones, and a maritime and logistics network. Today it contributes about 21% of Abu Dhabi's non-oil GDP.

The Al Selmiyyah Defence Industrial Free Zone builds on Tawazun's track record of launching over 90 companies across 11 sectors and hosting 45 firms in the Tawazun Industrial Park. By integrating SMEs into defence supply chains and enhancing export readiness, Al Selmiyyah positions Abu Dhabi as a nexus for sovereign industries. This development not only bolsters defence capabilities but also supports growth in other sectors.

The zone is designed to move the UAE from being a buyer of defence tech to a maker, targeting global OEMs for local production.

Question:

Looking at the Table 6 of the recent Statistical Bulletin released by the central bank, there is a surprising increase in the "Foreign Investments (FVOCI & FVTPL)" line. Are these investments illiquid?

Answer:

We looked at the Monthly Statistical Bulletin for February 2026. To address the surprise regarding the "Foreign Investments (FVOCI & FVTPL)" line, we need to look at the mechanics of how these assets are classified and why they are increasing.

In December 2023, these investments stood at AED 187.2bn. By Feb 2026, they soared to AED 762.6bn. That is an increase of 307%.

Simultaneously, "Current Account Balances & Deposits with Banks Abroad" dropped from AED 443.6bn in Dec 2023 to AED 270.5bn in Feb 2026. That is a decrease of 39%.

Our analysis is that the central bank is doing the following: instead of keeping the bulk of its international reserves in low-yielding, overnight current accounts or short-term deposits, it has reallocated capital into Foreign Securities. This is corroborated by Table 5 (page 10), which shows "Foreign Securities" rising in near-perfect lockstep with the investment line, reaching AED 762.6bn in Feb 2026.

With the central bank's total assets crossing the AED 1.1 trillion mark in early 2026, holding more than AED 700bn in cash (as seen in late 2024/early 2025) would be a drag on returns. It is also possible that the central bank wants to be in a better position to defend the currency peg.

Are these investments illiquid?

Just so that we are on the same page.

FVOCI = Fair Value through Other Comprehensive Income (typically high-quality, tradable bonds held for both collecting interest and potential sale)

FVTPL = Fair Value through Profit or Loss (usually more active trading positions or derivatives. These are inherently intended to be liquid)

Now, to answer the question.

Since "Foreign Securities" almost exclusively refers to sovereign treasuries (like US Treasuries) or high-grade multilateral debt, they are highly liquid in the secondary market.

Finally, since the central bank defines "Gross International Reserves" as the sum of these investments along with cash, SDRs, and other foreign assets. If these were truly illiquid/locked assets, they would likely be moved out of the "International Reserves" table and into long-term "Other Assets."

• Abu Dhabi benefits from low debt and resilient oil export revenue
• Net foreign assets are among highest in world
• Abu Dhabi's economy to shrink by 1% in 2026

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Abu Dhabi's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) at AA with a stable outlook. The rating affirmation reflects Abu Dhabi's high GDP per capita and very strong fiscal and external metrics. Government debt is among the lowest in the world and sovereign net foreign assets are among the highest.

However, the rating is constrained by high dependence on hydrocarbons, a relatively weak but improving economic policy framework, geopolitical risks and low governance indicators compared with peers.

The stable outlook reflects the resilience of oil export revenue during the Iran war, which significantly offsets the negative impact of the war, as well as abundant fiscal and external buffers.

Fitch Ratings expects a gradual re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the course of the war is highly uncertain. There are significant risks of a renewed flare-up, which could include greater disruption to oil and gas exports due to significant damage to energy production, processing and transportation assets, as well as a prolonged closure of the Strait, both of which would weigh on Abu Dhabi's credit profile.

Nevertheless, Abu Dhabi's export revenues are likely to remain close to pre-war forecasts despite the disruption, as higher prices and exports via Fujairah offset lower volumes through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil is the bulk of exports, and Abu Dhabi's oil export infrastructure is less vulnerable to long-term damage than more concentrated and bespoke downstream oil or LNG plants.

The agency projects the general government surplus, including the estimate of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority's (ADIA) investment income, to narrow to 3.0% of GDP in 2026 from 6.5% in 2025. Excluding ADIA's estimated investment income, the agency projects a deficit of 2.2%, the first since 2020. Revenue will benefit from the first distribution of corporate income tax proceeds, which were collected on 2023-2024 corporate performance.

Government debt was 19.5% of GDP at end-2025, well below the peer median of 50.3%. Fitch Ratings expects this to rise to 25.3% in 2026 due to higher war-related borrowing, before stabilising post-war. Abu Dhabi plans to issue in local currency to support the domestic debt market amid high bank liquidity and is likely to refinance upcoming external debt maturities locally.

Abu Dhabi's sovereign net foreign assets, mostly comprising ADIA assets, were at 291% of GDP at end-2025. The largest shares of the 2025 surplus were allocated to Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company and Mubadala, with some also channelled to MGX, a venture focused on AI investments owned by Mubadala and G42, which is partly government-owned.

Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi's banks have significant buffers against shocks. Abu Dhabi's flagship banks have limited concentration in corporate real estate and would retain ample liquidity buffer in a stress scenario.

Finally, the agency projects Abu Dhabi's economy to shrink by 1% in 2026, with both oil and non-oil activity contracting. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be mitigated by a rise in oil production to 3.3mn barrels per day (bpd) post-war. The non-oil economy will return to growth rapidly, although at a slower pace than pre-war.

• Talks held between foreign ministers Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu and Ronald Lamola
• Nigeria says South Africa raised reservations over planned evacuation of Nigerians
• Nigeria will continue to evacuate citizens facing security risks

According to Nigeria's foreign affairs minister, South Africa has expressed reservations over Nigeria's plan to evacuate its citizens following renewed xenophobic tensions in parts of South Africa. Minister Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu disclosed this in a statement on Twitter on Thursday (May 7) after a phone conversation with South Africa's foreign minister Ronald Lamola. Odumegwu-Ojukwu said the talks were prompted by ongoing anti-African-migrant protests that ramped up since late April, including recent demonstrations in Durban on May 6. She said Lamola raised concerns about Nigeria's evacuation plans but she did not elaborate what these concerns are.

The minister maintains that Nigeria's government has a responsibility to protect its citizens and will proceed with evacuations for those who wish to return. It was reported earlier in the week that at least 130 Nigerians have registered for evacuation. There are estimated to be 30,000 to 50,000 documented Nigerian residents in the country. Odumegwu-Ojukwu called for stronger action from South African authorities on reported killings and harassment of Nigerians, and urged accountability within security and justice institutions. She said both governments agreed to continue engagement to reduce tensions.

• Aliko Dangote announced plan during talks with IFC
• Dangote investments strengthened cash flow, supported expansion capacity
• World Bank estimates power shortages cost Nigeria USD 29bn annually

The Dangote Group plans to enter Nigeria's power sector with a proposed 20,000 MW electricity generation project. The move would expand the company beyond refining, cement and fertiliser production. Aliko Dangote revealed the plan during recent discussions with International Finance Corporation (IFC) managing director Makhtar Diop, where he described energy as one of Africa's most urgent development needs. According to him, the company's recent investments in refining and fertilisers have strengthened its financial position and generated sufficient cash flow to support a major expansion into power generation. Aliko said the company is becoming more asset-light, which increases its ability to finance capital-intensive projects.

The announcement comes as Nigeria continues to struggle with severe electricity shortages. Since taking office in 2023, power minister Adebayo Adelabu has missed several targets to stabilise the grid at 6,000 MW. Actual supply has often remained near 3,331 MW. Generation briefly reached a record 6,003 MW in March 2025 but the increase was short-lived due to vandalism and persistent gas supply disruptions. The World Bank estimates that unreliable electricity costs Nigeria about USD 29bn annually (roughly 10% of GDP). Following Adelabu's resignation last month, president Bola Tinubu has appointed Joseph Tegbe as Nigeria's new power minister.

Difficult structural challenges remain if Dangote proceeds with the plan. Nigeria's transmission network cannot reliably handle even 8,000 MW without risk of grid collapse, raising concerns about whether generated electricity could reach consumers. The sector also faces deep financial problems as distribution companies struggle to recover revenue and owe large debts to gas suppliers and generation firms. Analysts speculate that Dangote may rely on his own gas assets and LNG capabilities to reduce supply risks, but the company would still face longstanding difficulties in implementing cost-reflective tariffs.

• Finance minister said Nigeria will not reintroduce subsidies or impose price controls
• Oyedele argues that subsidies distort the economy and weaken market efficiency
• Govt team met global investors in Paris including Citibank, Amundi, BlueCrest

The federal government has once again ruled out reintroducing fuel subsidies or imposing fuel price controls, preferring instead to maintain market-based economic policies. Speaking in Paris this week, new finance minister Taiwo Oyedele said subsidy regimes distort the economy, while price controls undermine market efficiency. He said the government will maintain regulatory oversight to prevent abuse by suppliers, traders and manufacturers. He noted that current tensions in the Middle East present both risks and opportunities for Nigeria, where the opportunities include attracting energy investment and increasing revenue under the current pricing system. He said the government intends to boost revenue mobilisation and direct funds toward addressing supply-side constraints while managing inflation responsibly.

Oyedele was in Paris to meet international investors as part of a senior economic management led by president Bola Tinubu. The meeting included major institutional investors and fund managers such as Citibank, Amundi, BlueCrest and Ninety One. It also served to introduce the new finance minister to major creditors after he was appointed last month. This Paris stop is part of a longer diplomatic and economic tour that includes visits to Kenya and Rwanda later this month.

According to a statement from presidential aide Bayo Onanuga, Tinubu told the investors in Paris that Nigeria had achieved greater foreign exchange stability after removing the "burden" of fuel subsidies. He promised policy consistency to build investor confidence. Meanwhile, Debt Management Office director-general Patience Oniha assured the investors that the government remained committed to sustainable and responsible debt management.

2027: A'Ibom gov submits APC nomination form, seeks party support (The Punch)

DisCos ramp up revenue collection amid low power supply (The Punch)

2027 election: Experts warn of surge in govt spending (The Punch)

Domestic refiners dump USD 3.13bn crude over pricing disputes (The Punch)

Dangote exceeds 57mn barrels in jet fuel exports - Report (The Punch)

US-Iran war: FG rejects subsidy, price control return (The Punch)

Akpabio, Oshiomhole Clash as New Senate Leadership Eligibility Rules Oust Uzodimma (ThisDay)

Dangote to Extend Business Footprint to Power Sector, Plans 20,000MW Plant (ThisDay)

NUPRC: M'East Crisis Opens 10 Million bpd Oil Supply Window for Nigeria, African Countries (ThisDay)

FMDA projects NGN 10.5tn inflows in May on heavy OMO maturities (Nairametrics)

April inflation: What 7 economists are forecasting for the NBS print (Nairametrics)

Naira strengthens to N1,362/USD, extends gains against dollar (Nairametrics)

• Manama eyes Ukraine security expertise amid rising drone threats from Iran
• Both sides agree to open embassies and expand diplomatic cooperation

Bahrain is exploring a new defence partnership with Ukraine centred on counter-drone capabilities, according to medai reports. Those deveopments come following talks between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa in Manama. The initiative reflects Bahrain's efforts to strengthen its air defence systems as regional threats intensify, particularly from Iranian-designed drones used in recent attacks across the Gulf.

At the core of the discussions is a proposed drone cooperation framework that would draw on Ukraine's battlefield experience in intercepting and neutralising unmanned aerial threats. Kyiv has positioned itself as a provider of security expertise, leveraging its experience in countering similar systems deployed in the war with Russia. The talks also included plans to expand bilateral ties beyond defence, with both sides agreeing to move forward on establishing reciprocal embassies and deepening cooperation across economic and diplomatic fronts. The outreach signals Bahrain's intent to diversify its strategic partnerships amid a shifting regional security landscape.

Ukraine's engagement with Bahrain forms part of a broader push to expand its presence in the Gulf, where countries facing similar aerial threats are increasingly turning to Kyiv's defence technologies and operational know-how. The potential agreement underscores a convergence of security interests as Bahrain seeks to enhance resilience against evolving threats while Ukraine expands its role as a security partner beyond Europe.

• BoI buys securities from institutional investors for same amount in March too
• No other instruments used in April, BoI faces pressure from exporters due to strong NIS strengthening

The Bank of Israel (BoI) has carried out repo transactions in the amount of NIS 200mn in April, according to the monthly report on the programs that the BoI is implementing in the financial markets in light of the war. This is the second consecutive month the BoI intervenes on the market through this instrument, injecting the same amount. The programme was launched in October 2023 when the Gaza war started but apart from Mar-Apr was used only two times before - in the first month when it was launched but the amount was less than half the monthly amounts in the past two months and in January 2024 when the amount was even lower at NIS 5mn. Those amounts are actually insignificant when looking at the huge reserves the BoI has accumulated and which hit another historic high at the end of April (38.4% of GDP, providing import coverage of 29.0 months).

The report showed that in April the BoI did not use either of its other instruments it launched at the start of the Gaza war. During the previous war with Iran in June 2025, the BoI made some forex sales but this time it is facing just the opposite issue - pressure from exporters suffering from the strong shekel appreciation. We do not expect any intervention to address this though as BoI officials have many times said there is no target forex rate and the BoI intervenes only in case it detects speculative flows.

• Revaluation pushes up reserves in April
• Reserves secure 29.0 months of imports

The foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Israel (BoI) rose by 2.8% m/m or USD 6.3bn to USD 235.7bn at the end of April hitting another record high, according to the latest data from the Bank of Israel (BoI). The spike was on account of revaluation effects, which added USD 7.47bn to the reserves in the period. This was partially offset by an outflow of USD 1.15bn from the government account. There were no other significant flows in the month, according to the BoI.

Data Download

Forex reserves have increased by 2.7% since the end of 2025 and accounted for 38.4% of GDP at the end of April, the BoI said in the press release. They secured 29.0 months of imports at the end of April, according to our calculations, up by 0.7pps compared to a month ago and up by 0.2pps than at the end of 2025.

• Decision might be announced in coming weeks
• Former officials have split from Likud to create parties but success was short-lived
• Such party could help opposition establish government, we think

Likud senior Gilad Erdan confirmed for local media that he was exploring the possibility for creating a new right-wing party. He stated that he was firmly on the rightist side of the political spectrum and that the new project would seek to provide solution to the dilemma of a right-wing government dependent on the Haredi parties and what he called a leftist government dependent on the Arab parties. In the first case, the ruling parties are unable to promote equal sharing of the burden through integrating the ultra-Orthodox into the army and the labour market. In the second case, the main issues concern who can lead this bloc (which in fact comprises parties across the political spectrum) and who can boycott the other bloc more, Erdan added. The official explained that there was a vacuum for people who want to see reconciliation and tackling of real problems like the gridlock in the transportation system and the lack of governance in certain regions. If the project is launched, it will be a unified right-wing party with decision expected in the coming weeks, Erdan added.

Media has reported the possibility of some officials splitting from Likud to establish a new right-wing party and the names being mentioned are Moshe Kahlon, Yuli Edelstein, and deputy foreign minister Sharren Haskel. We note that former Likud officials (Moshe Kahlon, Gideon Sa'ar) have split in the past to form new parties but the success of the projects has been rather short-lived ending with the officials returning to Likud eventually. However, creating such party might enable the opposition bloc to gain enough support to establish the next government if that party draws seats from Likud. Currently, the opposition bloc has no chance to form a government without the Arab parties and most of the parties comprising the bloc have ruled out to join forces with Likud but also with any of its junior partners - the two far right religious parties and the two Haredi parties. Thus, recent political preference polls have been mostly projecting a stalemate after the next general elections, which should take place in October at the latest.

IDF Strikes in Beirut for First Time Since Israel-Lebanon Cease-fire (Haaretz)

Israel's Election Watchdog Under Pressure Ahead of Its Biggest Challenge Yet (Haaretz)

IDF strikes Hezbollah Radwan commander in Beirut (Jerusalem Post)

Netanyahu 'not surprised' by US-Iran negotiations (Jerusalem Post)

Will declaring the banks as a concentration group increase competition in deposits? (Calcalist)

The shekel is at a record high, exporters are under pressure - and the Treasury and the Bank of Israel are keeping quiet (Calcalist)

First attack in Beirut this month: "Commander of the Radwan Force was killed with his deputy" (Calcalist)

"The Ombudsman in a government office will be subordinate to the CEO and the minister. This is corruption on steroids" (Calcalist)

"Our jaw dropped": Exporters lost 6.8 billion shekels in the quarter - because of the dollar (TheMarker)

Time-pressed and dangerous: Last session before elections offers another opportunity for coup laws (TheMarker)

Israel returns to the defense exhibition in France and on its way to the air show in Morocco (Globes)

The stock exchange keeps breaking records: This is how you choose between the flagship indices Tel Aviv (Globes)

• Reform for fully opening market started in Jul 2024, lowers prices by 7-20%

Total of 418,731 households and businesses have switched from the state-run Israel Electric Corporation (IEC) to private power suppliers to-date, the energy ministry informed. Another 25,441 customers have submitted requests for switching in April alone. The reform for making the electricity supply market fully competitive was launched in July 2024 allowing customers to switch between providers and benefit from lower prices by 7-20%, bringing savings for customers amounting to hundreds or even thousands of shekels a year depending on the suppliers' offers, the nature of use and the hours of electricity consumption. Energy minister Eli Cohen bragged that this was the largest reform in the economy since the cellular reform that was made more than a decade ago claiming that the number of citizens who have benefitted so far has reached almost 2mn. Upon launching the reform, the ministry said there were 3.1mn electricity consumers and expected the savings for the economy to reach at least NIS 2bn per year.

• Decision comes after Wizz Air extends flights suspension beyond EASA recommendations

The transport ministry has reportedly frozen the establishment of an operational centre in the country by the low-cost air carrier Wizz Air, local media reported. The decision comes in response to Wizz Air's decision to extend the suspension of flights to Israel until May 22, beyond the May 12 recommendation of EASA (EU Aviation Safety Agency). This also comes in contrast to other foreign airlines, which have already returned to Israel, and previous such occasions when Wizz was among the first of the air carriers to resume flights. Wizz Air announced in November plans to invest USD 1bn in the country in the following three years adding 4,000 jobs by building a hub in the country. In February, the authorities cancelled a regulation that banned foreign company planes from being grounded in Israel, thus removing an obstacle for the hub establishment. The establishment of the Wizz Air hub is expected to reduce prices of air tickets and expand the number of destinations.

• Competition Authority wants to impose regulations for deposits in retail sector
• BoI claims decision could deter investors, not contribute to improving welfare of customers
• BoI says proposed measures overlap with steps it has already taken
• Decision might be appealed at court

The Competition Authority announced that it has determined that the five largest banks in the country, Leumi, Hapoalim, Mizrahi Tefahot, Israel Discount Bank and First International Bank of Israel, a concentration group in the field of retail services (services to households and small businesses). The decision allows the Authority to impose on the banks instructions or restrictions on their activities. This should be done after consultations with the Bank of Israel (BoI) but the regulator is not obliged to accept the position of the central bank. The Authority intends to focus on the field of deposits, and impose provisions that will come into effect in about a year. It plans to prohibit price discrimination between deposits, increase the accessibility of financial funds, by requiring banks to promote the option to customers who are interested in deposits, and ease of movement of deposits from bank to bank.

BoI slammed the decision claiming that it was an extreme and disproportionate step that, on the one hand, may deter investors from operating in Israel and, on the other, is not expected to lead in any way to increasing the welfare of bank customers. It added that most of the provisions that came along with the decision have already been implemented as part of the efforts of the Supervisor of Banks in that area and thus are only declarative and harm the regulatory certainty. BoI elaborated that the best way to address costumers' welfare is to remove barriers and to increase transparency and it has already taken many steps in that direction. It also reminded about the reform to grant licences to smaller banks. The central bank also stated that the Competition Authority has not provided proofs that the provisions under consideration are expected to yield competitive benefits that exceed their costs, or that their systemic risks and implications have been thoroughly considered.

The announcement comes after analysing the banking sector in the past two years. This is the first such decision in the financial sector. The Competition Authority last declared a concentration group in 2013, the two seaports of Haifa and Ashdod. The decision is not final and might be appealed at court.

• Geopolitical uncertainties remain high, to continue pressing down arrivals
• Departures are also much lower y/y but are likely to recover faster

The number of foreign tourist arrivals slightly improved in April m/m but it remained very low compared to last year as geopolitical tensions remained high despite the reached ceasefire initially with Iran and later on with Hezbollah, according to latest data of the stat office. There were 36,900 tourists arriving to the country in April, up from 9,600 in March but down from 166,900 in April last year. The number has been rising strong for more than a year with the exception of Jun-Jul 2025 because of the first Iran war but it remained far from recovering to pre-Gaza war levels, let alone pre-coronavirus levels. Previous military conflicts have shown that it takes long for the foreign arrivals to recover.

The number of departures of Israeli tourists also remained low, at only 351,900 in April as compared to 909,500 in the same month a year ago. It increased compared to March though but has been restrained by the continuing fighting at the start of the period while many air carriers have not restarted flying to the country yet. The travelling of Israelis abroad more than recovered since the number of departures in 2025 hit a record high, exceeding even the pre-coronavirus pandemic levels. We think that a fast recovery will likely take place once the geopolitical risks subside, especially at the backdrop of the expected opening of the Wizz Air hub, which should reduce the price of air tickets significantly.

• Rating agency expects Jordan's GDP growth to slow down to 2.6% in 2026 due to impact of Iran war
• High public debt and limited fiscal space continue to constrain rating

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Jordan's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at 'BB-' with a stable outlook, according to a statement published by the rating agency. The decision reflects a balance between the country's record of macroeconomic stability and reform progress, and persistent structural constraints, including high public debt, moderate growth and external vulnerabilities.

Overall, Jordan's credit profile remains broadly resilient to the baseline scenario of the Iran war, although the conflict is expected to weigh on growth and fiscal performance. As a net oil importer, higher energy prices pose risks to public finances and external balances, while uncertainty surrounding the conflict raises the possibility of further disruptions. At the same time, Jordan may benefit from its position as an alternative logistics route for Gulf countries and from its fertiliser exports.

Looking ahead, economic growth is projected to slow down to 2.6% in 2026 from stronger momentum in late 2025, reflecting weaker tourism inflows, higher energy costs and reduced government capital spending. However, transport and logistics sectors are expected to provide some support, with growth forecast to pick up again in 2027 as investment rebounds. Trade with Iraq and a potential recovery in economic ties with Syria are also seen as positive drivers, alongside large infrastructure projects backed by Gulf partners.

Meanwhile, fiscal pressures are set to intensify, with the war expected to weigh on revenues while increasing expenditure through higher energy-related costs. Limited flexibility to cut current spending is likely to shift adjustment efforts toward capital expenditure. While tax collection has improved, fiscal space remains constrained, and state-linked entities in the electricity and water sectors continue to pose contingent liabilities. Furthermore, government debt remains elevated, estimated at around 86% of GDP, and is expected to rise further in the near term before gradually declining. Despite this, strong access to concessional financing and continued international support, particularly from the United States and multilateral institutions, underpin Jordan's funding position and help sustain investor confidence. Externally, deficits are projected to widen further due to weaker tourism receipts and higher import costs, with net external debt also expected to increase. Nonetheless, macro-financial stability remains supported by the exchange-rate peg to the US dollar, adequate foreign reserves and a resilient banking sector.

Overall, the stable outlook reflects expectations that continued reform efforts and sustained external support will help contain risks. However, downside pressures could emerge from a prolonged regional conflict, weaker fiscal consolidation or rising debt levels, while stronger growth, higher external support or improved fiscal performance could support the rating over time.

• However, reserves rise 1% m/m

The total official reserve assets held by the Central Bank of Kuwait (CBK) decreased 13% y/y to KWD 12.3bn (USD 40.1bn) at the end of March. However, official reserves increased 1% m/m. It should be noted that the CBK's reserve assets have decreased y/y for 16 consecutive months and the trend is likely to continue into the second quarter of 2026.

Data Download

The Iran war began on Feb 28 and Iran subsequently closed the Strait of Hormuz, thus making it impossible for Kuwait to export its oil. The obvious question is: Why did official reserves increase m/m in March?

One explanation is that official reserves often reflect payments for oil that was shipped two to three months prior. Oil exported in December 2025 and January 2026 - before the conflict began - would likely have been settled in March 2026.

Additionally, there was an 8% m/m rise in Government Deposits & Accounts, from KWD 14.6bn (USD 47.4bn) in February to KWD 15.7bn (USD 51bn) in March. This indicates a large inflow of capital to the state, likely from realized investment returns or pre-settled energy contracts.

Official reserve assets do not include external assets held by Kuwait Investment Authority, the country's sovereign wealth fund. The central bank currently has more than enough money to defend the currency peg. FX reserves of USD 40.1bn can cover many months of imports and is a sufficient buffer for managing currency market operations. Kuwait's reserves of USD 40.1bn provide about 10 months of import cover, based on the average monthly cost of imports for goods and services.

A total of 10 months of import cover is higher than the international benchmark of 3 months.

While this USD 40.1bn represents the liquid official reserves held by the CBK to support the KWD peg, it's worth noting that this is only a small fraction of Kuwait's total foreign assets. The Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA), the country's sovereign wealth fund, manages the Future Generations Fund, which holds hundreds of billions more, though those are not classified as official reserves for import cover calculations.

Data Download

Background

Kuwait pegged the dinar to the US Dollar in January 2003 and then re-pegged the dinar to a basket of currencies on May 20, 2007, likely motivated by the need to combat imported inflation.

During the period of 2003 - 2007, the US dollar was undergoing a prolonged depreciation against other major world currencies (like the Euro). Kuwait imports most of its consumer goods and services from around the world, not just the US.

Since the dinar was pegged exclusively to the depreciating USD, the KWD also effectively weakened against the currencies of its major non-US trading partners. This meant that the cost of non-US imports (from Europe, Asia, etc.) rose in KWD terms, leading to higher domestic inflation.

The CBK does not publicly disclose the specific currencies in the basket, nor does it reveal the weighting assigned to each currency. This is standard practice for central banks that employ a currency basket peg, as it prevents speculative attacks on the currency.

Re-pegging the dinar to a basket of currencies provided the central bank the flexibility to adjust the dinar's exchange rate against the basket without being completely locked into the fluctuations of a single currency. This directly enhanced the central bank's power to manage price stability and inflation.

It is widely understood that the basket includes currencies of Kuwait's major trade and financial partners. The basket is therefore very likely to be composed primarily of:

• The US Dollar (USD) (due to oil sales being priced in USD and significant trade ties).
• The Euro (EUR).
• The Japanese Yen (JPY).
• Possibly the British Pound (GBP), and potentially currencies of other major partners.

• Attack marks first strike on Beirut's southern suburbs since truce began

Israel said it carried out an airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs targeting a senior commander from Hezbollah's elite Radwan force. The strike marks a significant escalation and the first attack on the area since the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect on April 17, raising concerns over the durability of the fragile truce. According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, the operation aimed to neutralise a Radwan force commander accused of overseeing attacks against Israeli communities and soldiers. Sources close to Hezbollah identified the target as Malek Ballout, reportedly the operations commander within the unit.

Lebanese security sources said the strike hit an apartment where senior Radwan figures were holding a meeting. The attack targeted Beirut's southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold that had largely avoided strikes since the ceasefire began. Meanwhile, Israeli media reported that the operation was coordinated with the United States, while additional reports indicated that Israel could continue conducting targeted strikes across Lebanon if further opportunities to eliminate senior Hezbollah figures emerge.

The development underscores mounting tensions despite the truce, with both sides continuing to signal readiness for further escalation amid ongoing security and political strains in the region.

• Weak consumer and business spending add to downward pressure on activity
• Export orders post sharpest drop in six years as war deters foreign demand
• Business confidence falls to lowest since late 2024 due to rising security concerns

Lebanon's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 48.2 points in April, up from a 17-month low of 47.4 recorden in the preceding month, indicating a continued but moderating contraction in private sector activity. The reading remains below the 50.0 neutral threshold for a second consecutive month, reflecting ongoing pressure on business conditions amid regional conflict and heightened uncertainty.

Data Download

The downturn was primarily driven by weak demand, particularly from international markets. New orders declined again, with export demand falling at the sharpest pace in six years as the war in the Middle East deterred foreign clients. Domestically, softer consumer and business spending, alongside security concerns, further weighed on overall sales, underscoring the sector's vulnerability to geopolitical shocks.

Business activity followed the trend in demand, with output contracting for a second month, albeit at a slower pace than in March. Firms adjusted by scaling back operations, reducing employment marginally and cutting purchasing activity. Inventory levels also declined sharply, marking the fastest reduction in a year and a half as companies sought to preserve liquidity and avoid excess stock in a weak demand environment. At the same time, cost pressures intensified significantly. Rising shipping and import costs pushed purchase price inflation to a more than three-year high, reflecting ongoing disruptions to supply chains. In response, firms increased their selling prices at the fastest rate since March 2023, passing part of the higher costs onto customers.

Looking ahead, business sentiment deteriorated further. Confidence regarding future output fell for a second consecutive month to its lowest level since late 2024, with firms citing concerns over the prolonged impact of the regional conflict. The outlook suggests that, without a meaningful easing of regional tensions, Lebanon's private sector is likely to remain under sustained pressure in the near term.

• Investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach to ongoing Iran war

The total traded value of property in the Sultanate increased 18% y/y to OMR 678mn (USD 1.8bn) at the end of March, according to the National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI).

Looking at the components, the total value of traded mortgage contracts increased 16% y/y to OMR 369mn (USD 958mn). Similarly, the total traded value of sales contracts increased 21% y/y to OMR 305mn (USD 791mn). Finally, the total value of barter contracts rose 22% y/y to OMR 4mn (USD 10mn).

Despite these strong y/y indicators, a closer examination of the 2026 monthly data reveals a distinct cooling in activity as the quarter progressed. After a period of heightened engagement in the early weeks of the year, transaction volumes and values in March showed a clear departure from the pace set in January and February.

The total traded value of property for March stood at OMR 197mn (USD 510mn), down from nearly OMR 246mn (USD 637mn) in February and OMR 236mn (USD 611mn) in January.

The March figures suggest that investors have adopted a wait-and-see approach in response to the shifting geopolitical landscape. As the year unfolds, the real estate sector's ability to maintain its annual growth trajectory will likely depend on the duration of these regional tensions and the continued stability of the domestic economy.

• Auction features two tranches of QAR 1.25

The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) successfully issued QAR 2.5bn (USD 680mn) in government Ijara Sukuk on behalf of the Ministry of Finance, indicating robust demand in the Islamic finance market.

The auction featured two tranches: QAR 1.25bn (USD 340mn) issuance maturing on Sep 3, 2028, and QAR 1.25bn issuance maturing on Aug 24, 2030, both offering a 4.4% yield. Total bids reached QAR 7bn, nearly three times the issuance size, reflecting strong investor appetite.

Ijara is a Sharia-compliant leasing structure central to Islamic finance. Ijara functions as an Islamic lease where the lessor owns an asset - such as property, equipment, or vehicles -and grants the lessee the right to use it for a fixed period in exchange for rental payments. Unlike conventional leases, it avoids interest (riba) by basing payments on asset usage rather than loans, with the lessor bearing ownership risks like maintenance.

This issuance builds on prior sukuk activities, such as a March QAR 3bn issuance with similar maturities and 4.5% yields that drew USD 2.2bn in bids. Qatar's sukuk market has expanded rapidly, with outstanding sukuk reaching USD 22bn by April 2025 amid diversification efforts in Sharia-compliant instruments.

The events underscore Qatar's strategic funding approach amid stable oil prices and geopolitical steadiness in the Gulf.

Broader Implications

These issuances deepen Qatar's yield curve and attract regional investors, supporting fiscal management without straining liquidity. As energy markets evolve, such moves position Qatar favorably in global Islamic finance, potentially paving the way for larger international listings.

• Foreign liabilities rose m/m across the board, while foreign assets retreated due to falling claims on foreign banks
• Foreign assets now account for 8.3% of banks' total assets and for 13.8% of total deposits
• Meanwhile, SAMA's net foreign assets were sizeable USD 474bn at end-month

The deficit in the banks' net foreign assets widened to a new all-time high of SAR 262.3bn (USD 69.9bn) as of end-March from SAR 230.8bn a month earlier, according to data released by the central bank (SAMA). The deficit recorded in March also marks the 20th consecutive month when the banks' NFAs were in a liability position. The m/m dynamics were due to a strong increase in foreign liabilities (+ SAR 20.9bn) against a SAR 10.5bn m/m drop in foreign assets. The increase in the liabilities was broad-based, and the liabilities to foreign banks rose for the fourth month in a row. We remind that credit growth in Saudi Arabia has outpaced the growth in deposits for a second year in a row, leading to tighter liquidity and encouraging the commercial banks to look for additional funds from foreign banks, leading to growing external liabilities. We think the war in Iran will intensify the liquidity challenges in the banking system and will ultimately lead to growing foreign liabilities.

Data Download

The foreign assets are equal to 8.3% of the banks' total assets and to 13.8% of their total deposits. The banks' NFAs peaked in April 2023 and have been trending downwards since then on the back of rising foreign liabilities, especially to other creditors and foreign banks. We think the overall NFAs will remain in deficit position in 2026, but as long as Saudi Arabia is able to export crude oil through its Red Sea terminals and earns FX, we may see some narrowing in the banks' NFA deficit this year.

Meanwhile, the net foreign assets of SAMA remain sizeable, recording a net asset position of around USD 474bn and accounting for about 35% of GDP. SAMA's net foreign assets are traditionally boosted by the quarterly dividend payments by Saudi Aramco, which were cut by 30% to USD 85bn in 2025 due to financial pressures from high payouts and weaker oil prices.

• Expansion of new mortgage financing has moderated since late 2024
• Slowdown in mortgage financing growth attributed to high prices, regional and global uncertainty
• Saudi Arabia opened its real estate market to foreigners in January, but war in Iran to drag on sector

The value of new residential mortgage finance provided by banks to individuals fell for the ninth month in a row in March, by strong 50.1% y/y to SAR 4.2bn (USD 1.1bn) following another strong drop of 39.7% y/y in the preceding month, according to data released by the central bank (SAMA). The total number of new mortgage contracts fell by similar 42.4% y/y in the month, pointing towards prolonged slowdown in the mortgage financing segment. Meanwhile, the new mortgage finance provided by finance companies fell by sharp 22% y/y, but at SAR 183mn it remains negligible when compared to the mortgage loans provided by the banks. New mortgage financing reached its peak in late 2024 and has slowed sharply since then. This slowdown could be related to global and regional uncertainty, tightening liquidity, and high real estate prices. House prices in the capital have almost doubled over the past five years for certain units, and incomes levels have not risen at the same pace. Saudi Arabia opened its real estate market to foreigners on Jan 22, but we think the Iran War will drag on foreign investments as Iranian missile attacks showed the kingdom and the GCC countries as a whole are much more exposed to regional conflicts than previously thought.

Data Download

We remind that the value of new residential mortgage finances provided by the banks to individuals fell by 11.7% y/y to SAR 80.4bn in 2025. Growth in new mortgage financing rebounded in 2024, which was one of the reasons for the soaring prices in the real estate market. Indeed, residential prices - house rentals in particular - remain a major driver of consumer inflation and they are likely to remain elevated at least over the medium term as they reflect the limited supply that is struggling to catch up to strong demand from Saudis and expats. The government has taken measures to ease the limited supply of land and real estate prices - especially in the residential segment - are now beginning to decline.

• SAMA cut interest rates by cumulative 75bps in 2025 as it follows closely FED's monetary policy
• Iran War to delay further monetary easing in the US
• Interbank liquidity is likely to remain tight over short term because of strong lending activity

The average three-month Saudi Arabian Interbank Offered Rate (SAIBOR) rose for the first time in nine months in March, edging up to 4.87% from 4.84% in February, according to data released by the central bank (SAMA). SAMA cut the interest rates by cumulative 75bps in 2025 as the Saudi central bank follows closely FED's policy because of the currency peg. Consequently, the 3M SAIBOR fell to level last seen in late 2022. However, the Middle East crisis put on hold any further rate cuts in the US and SAMA will maintain its current stance even though Saudi inflation has been below that of the US in the past three years. Further, we think that domestic liquidity will remain tight in 2026 as Saudi Arabia's banking system has recorded another year of strong loan growth that outpaced the increase in deposits.

Data Download

Higher interest rates did not cool investment or consumption in the kingdom, but the war in Iran is likely to weigh on investment this year. So far, the fiscal deficit has increased sharply in Q1, which will put further strain on domestic liquidity, so we think money rates will keep increasing at least over the second quarter of 2026.

• M/M jump due to calendar effect, Iran war as expat workers send remittances home
• Large remittance outflows are structural feature of kingdom's Current Account
• Remittance outflows fell by 4.7% y/y in Q1
• Slowdown in giga-projects likely to contain increase in remittance outflows in 2026

The personal transfer payments rose by sharp 26.9% m/m to USD 5.9bn in March, following a 5.8% m/m drop in the preceding month, according to figures released by SAMA. The m/m increase reflects the number of calendar days and the war in Iran, which most likely pushed expat workers to send more money to their home countries. Remittances from expats living in Saudi Arabia account for two thirds of the payments, the rest are payments made by Saudi nationals. The large remittance outflows are a structural feature of Saudi Arabia's Current Account as the country relies heavily on foreign workers, especially in the construction sector. Saudi Arabia scaled down many of the giga-projects due to weaker oil revenues and the war in Iran is likely to drag on investments, so we think the growth in the remittance payments will be contained this year. Further, the government had deployed measures to encourage the employment of Saudis and to reduce the reliance of foreign workers, so we expect a gradual moderation in foreign employment in the coming years.

Data Download

Remittance outflows have already slowed this year, falling 4.7% y/y to USD 15.5bn in Q1. We remind that remittance outflows rose by a strong 11% y/y to USD 62.9bn in 2025, which came on top of the 13% y/y growth recorded in 2024. Remittance outflows account for about 5% of GDP and 14% of SAMA's foreign reserves last year. The personal transfer payments account for about 45% of Saudi banks' sales of hard currency for specific purposes, with the remaining sales allocated to import financing (around 25%) and foreign contractors (around 30%). The share of personal transfer payments in the total sales of hard currency (including third parties such as foreign banks and other Saudi customers), is around 7%.

• PIF to issue three-tranche Eurobond, final pricing and size to be announced late Thursday

The sovereign wealth fund (PIF) has returned to the international debt market on Thursday with a three-tranche Eurobond, according to news reports. According to the initial pricing guidelines, a three-year bond is priced +130bps above US securities with similar tenors and a seven-year bond is priced at +135bps. PIF will also issue a 30-year bond, which is currently priced at +170bps. Citi, Goldman Sachs International, HSBC and JP Morgan are acting as joint global coordinators. The size of the issuance and the final pricing will be announced later today.

This is the first major issuance after the Iran War broke out and comes amidst rising sovereign debt and heavy fiscal spending. PIF last tapped debt markets in January, raising USD 2bn from 10-year Islamic bond sale. Earlier this week, the kingdom's debt management office said it had completed its 2026 annual borrowing plan, having secured around 90% of funding needs before the war broke out.

• Advanced system to increase Aramco's current computing capacity seven-fold

Saudi Aramco and Solutions by stc will jointly deploy a next-generation high-performance supercomputer, as part of the oil major's ongoing digital transformation initiatives. The supercomputer, which is estimated to cost SAR 1.4bn (USD 373mn), will boost Aramco's computing capacity currently available for its upstream operations seven-fold. This will be the largest deployment of computing infrastructure in Aramco's history and will enable advanced seismic data processing and large-scale reservoir modeling and simulation. The system is planned to be delivered by early 2027.

• PIF shifts focus to domestic market, but expansion in China underlines growing ties between two countries

Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund PIF has opened a second office in mainland China, unnamed sources told Bloomberg. The Shanghai office, which was registered last year and began operations in early 2026, aims to support investment agreements with China. The news report has drawn attention as it underlines the growing ties between China and Saudi Arabia. We remind that PIF will refocus its attention on the kingdom and its investment needs, and only 20% of its portfolio allocations will target foreign markets. Further, the oversee investments will shift toward sectors such as global equities, infrastructure, technology, aerospace, and gaming - areas where China excels.

Saudi PIF expands China footprint, opens Shanghai office (Zawya)

Saudi Aramco's USD 373mn supercomputer to boost upstream operations (Zawya)

Saudi NCLE signs USD 61mn credit facilities agreement with Saudi Awwal Bank (Zawya)

Foreign investors pile into Saudi stocks as UAE outflows persist (AGBI)

PIF consolidates China presence with second office (AGBI)

Saudi petrochemicals cut losses despite war-hit sales (AGBI)

IBM CEO: Saudi Arabia enters AI implementation phase (Arab News)

Saudi insurers show mixed performance in Q1 earnings (Arab News)

• FX reserves rise to TND 25.0bn, covering 103 days of imports
• External debt service moderates sharply, easing near-term external pressures

Foreign exchange inflows from remittances and tourism reached a combined TND 4.97bn at the end of April, according to the latest Central Bank of Tunisia data. Cumulative tourism revenues reached TND 2.04bn at end-April, rising 6.7% y/y. The continued improvement reflects sustained demand from European visitors and resilient regional travel flows ahead of the summer season. Tourism receipts remain a key source of hard-currency inflows and continue to support Tunisia's external accounts. Remittance inflows also maintained strong momentum, growing 5.2% y/y to a cumulative TND 2.93bn. The steady growth in remittances highlights the resilience of transfers from Tunisians abroad, which continue to act as a stable source of foreign exchange.

Net foreign exchange reserves stood at TND 25.0bn as of May 6, equivalent to 103 days of imports (higher than 99 days in the same period last year), according to the central bank. Reserves increased by 4.2% y/y from TND 22.7bn a year earlier, reflecting continued support from robust service exports and diaspora inflows. Meanwhile, external debt service eased considerably. Cumulative debt service payments amounted to TND 2.55bn at end-April, sharply lower than TND 6.72bn recorded during the same period of 2025. The decline reflects the absence of large international bond repayments seen last year and provides meaningful relief to Tunisia's external financing needs and sovereign liquidity position.

Overall, Tunisia's external position remains broadly stable heading into mid-2026. Strong tourism receipts and resilient remittances flows continue to reinforce foreign exchange buffers, while lower debt-service obligations help contain pressure on reserves and the dinar.

• Rise in passenger numbers drives 5.4% y/y increase in Q1 profit to TND 314mn

National flag carrier Tunisair carried 540,651 passengers in the first quarter, rising 9% y/y, as the airline reported improvements in several operational indicators. The rise in passenger numbers drove a 5.4% y/y increase in transport revenues to TND 314mn in Q1. The carrier's passenger load factor rose to 75.8% from 74.3% in Q1 2025, while flight hours increased 4% y/y to 12,103 hours. The regularity load factor improved slightly to 66.4%, up 0.2pps from a year earlier. Tunisair said fuel expenses declined modestly due to lower consumption and a favourable dollar-dinar exchange rate, although overall debt levels increased following new loans taken in 2025 and early 2026. The airline's market share edged up to 24.5% from 24.2% a year earlier.

• Tunisia generates more than 2.8 million tonnes of household waste annually
• Most waste is still sent to landfills and recycling rates remain low

A World Bank delegation is visiting Tunis from May 4-8 to support Tunisia's household waste treatment and recovery programme under the country's 2026-2030 development plan. The mission, conducted with the National Waste Management Agency (ANGED) and the Ministry of the Environment, includes meetings with stakeholders and site visits to assess current waste management systems and identify technical and investment needs. The World Bank is providing technical assistance and strategic guidance to improve waste collection, sorting, treatment and recovery infrastructure, including the development of new processing facilities and the modernisation of existing systems. While the financing structure for the programme has not yet been finalised, the initiative aims to establish a more efficient and sustainable integrated waste management system in Tunisia.

Tunisia generates more than 2.8 million tonnes of household waste annually, according to official estimates, with most waste still disposed of in landfills and recycling rates remaining low. Waste management has become a politically sensitive issue following repeated protests over pollution and illegal dumping, particularly in the southern city of Gabes, where residents accused state GCT plants of releasing toxic emissions and waste into surrounding communities and coastal areas.

• Insurance and pension fund sector also maintain high solvency margins

The financial system ended 2025 with "comfortable" stability indicators, supported by strong bank capitalization, resilient insurance sector solvency and higher capital market activity, the Council of Supervisors of the Financial System (CSSF) said in a press release. The CSSF, bringing together the National Bank of Angola, Angolan Agency for Regulation and Supervision of Insurance and Capital Markets Commission, said the banking sector's regulatory capital ratio stood at 23.16% in 2025, while the non-performing loan ratio fell to 15.73%. The insurance and pension fund sector maintained high solvency margins, pointing to continued balance-sheet stability, while trading volumes in capital markets increased, largely driven by new stock exchange listings.

Supervisors also highlighted the launch of the 2026-30 strategic plan cycle alongside reforms linked to the Financial System Assessment Program and the National Financial Inclusion Strategy. Authorities said the measures aim to strengthen Angola's institutional, regulatory and prudential framework and improve resilience and inclusion across the financial system.The CSSF additionally reviewed accounting framework reforms tied to IAS/IFRS adoption for insurers, securities-market non-bank financial institutions and collective investment schemes. The council also assessed a cybersecurity framework for institutions supervised by the central bank.

Banking sector profit reached AOA 951.44bn (USD 1bn) in 2025, up 34.06% y/y, according to the 2025 Annual Report by the Banco Nacional de Angola, released last week. Banking sector turnover reached AOA 2.38tn, which represents a 13.21% increase y/y. Total sector assets expanded by 12.06% to AOA 26.59tn, driven mainly by lending and securities. The system shrank to 21 banks following the liquidation of VTB Africa.

• Around 46,000 companies already use e-invoicing, 400,000 invoices submitted daily

The value of transactions processed in through electronic invoicing reached AOA 28tn (USD 30.5bn) in the first four months of 2026, according to the General Tax Administration (AGT). Around 46,000 companies already use e-invoicing, with roughly 400,000 invoices submitted electronically to the AGT each day. The AGT said the country's e-invoicing system has recorded strong early adoption despite operational and internet connectivity challenges. Authorities stressed that the platform allows offline invoice issuance and delayed submission, including a 40-day contingency window where immediate reporting is not possible.

AGT Chairman Jose Leiria said all companies with annual turnover of at least AOA 25mn must comply with e-invoicing rules by Dec 31 2026, warning there will be no deadline extension. From next year, electronic invoicing it becomes mandatory for everyone. As recalled, the system was launched on Jan 1 this year as part of Angola's broader tax administration modernisation efforts. Authorities argue that electronically reporting all fiscally relevant invoices will improve transaction transparency, reduce informality and strengthen oversight of VAT flows, ultimately helping the government to diversify revenues away from hydrocarbons.

• Agreement covers geological and geophysical analysis, including 2D/3D seismic and well data, ahead of possible future investment decisions

The National Agency for Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels IANPG) and Australia's energy firm Woodside Energy signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly evaluate hydrocarbon potential in offshore Blocks 25, 26 and 43, located in the ultra-deepwater Benguela and Namibe basins. The agreement establishes an initial study phase focused on reviewing geological and geophysical datasets, including 2D and 3D seismic surveys, well reports and other technical information. The work is intended to identify exploration and development opportunities that could later translate into upstream investment. The initiative forms part of Angola's broader strategy to revive exploration activity and sustain crude production through new frontier developments.

• April intervention clears airline FX backlog and supports uninterrupted international flights
• Move may reduce operational risks for airlines, but highlights persistent FX liquidity constraints in Angola

The National Bank of Angola (BNA) said it sold USD 105mn in foreign currency to airlines in 2026, including USD 94mn in April to clear all pending airline FX operations reported by commercial banks. The BNA's press release stated the intervention was intended to ensure the continuity of airline operations and normal functioning of air transport. The central bank assured the sales are of exceptional nature and insisted commercial banks also supplied foreign currency, with access coordinated between the banking sector and the central bank. The announcement follows earlier concerns from the National Civil Aviation Authority that international airlines operating in Angola were still struggling to repatriate profits because of FX constraints and kwanza volatility. Regulators also highlighted the sector's dependence on imported aviation components and limited access to bank financing.

Pressure on airlines has intensified in 2026 following a 102% rise in Jet A1 fuel prices between March and April. Meanwhile, Turkish Airlines temporarily suspended Luanda operations from May to September, although Angola's transport ministry attributed the move to higher fuel costs linked to Middle East tensions rather than FX shortages.

The intervention should reduce immediate operational disruption risks and ease airline payment backlogs. However, the need for exceptional FX support underscores Angola's ongoing external liquidity challenges and will keep attention on reserve adequacy, kwanza stability, and the broader functioning of the FX market. The kwanza has remained broadly stable over the past year, despite weakening to USD/AOA 918 in late April from USD/AOA 912 earlier in the month. Rising oil prices should improve Angola's external position in 2026, although the IMF has urged authorities to use the windfall primarily for debt reduction, potentially limiting spillovers to domestic FX liquidity.

• Supreme Court ruling triggers suspension of ESDP candidates by the Electoral board
• Decision raises scrutiny over political competition ahead of June vote

Ethiopia's National Electoral Board (NEBE) reportedly disqualified 309 candidates from the opposition Ethiopian Social Democratic Party (ESDP) ahead of elections scheduled for 1 Jun, following a Supreme Court ruling linked to an internal party dispute, according to BBC reports. The court found that the registration of the candidates was unlawful after rival factions within the ESDP submitted competing candidate lists. NEBE said it had provided an opportunity for the factions to reconcile and jointly register candidates, but the dispute remained unresolved, leading to the suspension of the nominees. The affected faction, led by deputy party chairperson Rahel Bafe, has contested the decision, arguing that the court ruling did not directly involve the party itself. The dispute adds to concerns over opposition fragmentation and organisational challenges ahead of the vote. A total of 47 political parties are expected to participate in the poll, which comes at a politically sensitive time as Ethiopia continues implementing broad economic reforms while navigating security and governance pressures in several regions. The disqualification highlights persistent institutional and political tensions within Ethiopia's opposition landscape, where internal divisions have frequently weakened party cohesion and electoral competitiveness. It also places additional focus on the credibility and inclusiveness of the electoral process as authorities seek to project political stability alongside ongoing macroeconomic reforms. Political uncertainty remains a key risk factor for investor confidence and reform continuity, particularly as Ethiopia works to secure external financing, complete debt restructuring negotiations, and stabilise its macroeconomic environment.

• Wheat output rises to over 330mn quintals in current fiscal year
• Cultivated wheat area expands to more than 8mn hectares
• Govt links production gains to food security and import substitution

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed says Ethiopia has become Africa's largest wheat producer after harvest output exceeded 330mn quintals during the current fiscal year, marking a sharp increase in agricultural production under the government's food security and import substitution drive. Speaking during a visit to wheat farms in Oromia region, Abiy said total wheat cultivation expanded to more than 8mn hectares across both rainy and dry seasons, up significantly from previous years. Production reportedly rose from 280mn quintals last year to 331mn quintals this fiscal year, reflecting an increase of roughly 18%. The government has increasingly promoted irrigated "summer wheat" cultivation since the COVID-19 period as part of efforts to reduce dependence on imports and improve utilisation of arable land. Authorities argue the programme is now delivering structural gains in food production and rural incomes.

According to Abiy, Ethiopia was among Africa's lower wheat producers only five to six years ago and relied heavily on imports. The latest gains are intended to strengthen food self-sufficiency, reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves, and improve resilience against global commodity price shocks. The Prime Minister also linked agricultural expansion to broader rural transformation, noting that some areas previously dependent on social safety net programmes are becoming more economically self-sufficient. In addition to wheat production, authorities highlighted growing activity in dairy and poultry farming. Stronger agricultural output could help ease food inflation pressures, support export potential, and reduce Ethiopia's import bill. The government is positioning agriculture alongside mining, industry, tourism, and technology as a key pillar of Ethiopia's long-term growth strategy under ongoing economic reforms.

• Government reportedly seeks final agreements with bilateral and commercial creditors
• Commercial debt negotiations focus on Eurobond and SOE-linked obligations
• Debt-to-GDP ratio declines to 37% by end-2025 from 56% in 2018

Government announced that it aims to finalize all bilateral and commercial debt restructuring agreements by October 2026 as the government pushes to complete a critical phase of its macroeconomic stabilization programme under the G20 Common Framework, according to local media reports. According to the Ministry of Finance, authorities are implementing a "comparable treatment" approach requiring private creditors to provide debt relief terms consistent with those granted by official bilateral lenders. The strategy forms part of Ethiopia's broader efforts to restore debt sustainability and improve external financing conditions following years of fiscal and foreign exchange pressures. Progress with official creditors has accelerated since Ethiopia reached an agreement in principle with the Official Creditor Committee in March 2025, followed by a formal memorandum of understanding signed later that year. France subsequently became the first creditor nation to conclude a bilateral agreement with Addis Abeba, alongside EUR 81.5mn in support for the second phase of Ethiopia's Homegrown Economic Reform agenda.

Attention has now shifted to commercial creditors, including holders of Ethiopia's USD 1bn Eurobond that matured in December 2024 and loans linked to state-owned enterprises. While negotiations initially faced difficulties over restructuring terms, the Finance Ministry says agreements in principle have now been reached with several major commercial lenders. Authorities argue that broader reforms are already improving debt sustainability indicators. Ethiopia's debt-to-GDP ratio reportedly declined from 56% in 2018 to 37% by end-2025, supported by fiscal consolidation and stronger domestic revenue mobilisation. However, exchange rate liberalisation introduced in July 2024 has also increased the local currency cost of servicing external debt, underscoring the delicate balance between macroeconomic reform and financial stability.

We note that this announcement comes against a more complex backdrop in Ethiopia's private creditor negotiations. Bondholders of the country's USD 1.0bn Eurobond recently rejected the OCC's objection to a draft restructuring agreement, calling the comparability ruling "unreasonable" and warning of potential legal action in English courts. Ethiopia has since reopened talks after the OCC co-chaired by China and France who determined that the initial Agreement in Principle did not meet the G20 Common Framework's Comparability of Treatment requirements. According to the Ministry of Finance's latest public sector debt bulletin, Ethiopia's total public debt stood at USD 52.1bn (ETB 8,072.3bn) at end‑December 2025, equivalent to 68.7% of GDP using a full‑year GDP estimate of ETB 11.75tn. External debt accounted for USD 34.5bn (66.1% of total public debt) , while domestic debt in birr terms rose 5.9% to ETB 2,736.1bn. The Common Framework debt treatment is expected to deliver USD 3.5bn in relief, against a residual financing gap of USD 10.7bn for the 2024/25-2027/28 programme.

• Agreements cover forestry, security and public order, extradition arrangements
• Angolan president denied reports of tensions with Gabon following 2023 coup

Gabon and Angola signed three new cooperation agreements in Luanda on Wednesday (May 6) during the official state visit of president Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema. One of the main agreements is an MoU between Gabon's ministry of water and forestry and Angola's ministry of agriculture and forestry to increase technical and institutional cooperation in the forestry sector. The other agreements focus on collaboration in security and public order, as well as establishing a legal framework for extradition between the two states. The agreements were signed by Gabon's foreign affairs minister Maria Edith Tassyla Ye Doumbeneny and Angola's foreign affairs minister Téte António. Angolan president João Lourenco was also in attendance at the signing ceremony.

Angolan media had previously reported tensions between the two countries, reportedly due to Lourenco's initial refusal to recognise Nguema after he seized power in 2023. However, at the signing ceremony this week, Lourenco denied the existence of any periods of tension between Angola and Gabon. Lourenco praised the Gabonese authorities for their efforts to restore constitutional order following the August 2023 coup. He noted that the African Union had imposed sanctions on Gabon after the takeover, but these were later lifted once constitutional order was restored through fair elections. He said this allowed Gabon and Angola to reestablish diplomatic ties. The two countries are now seeking to further expand ties through cooperation in oil and energy, agriculture, mining, industry, transport and logistics.

• Climate change minister says funds needed to strengthen climate resilience
• He says govt is engaging international partners, including EU, to obtain financing

The government needs an estimated USD 22.6bn to effectively address the country's climate needs, minister of state for climate change and sustainability Seidu Issifu said at a press briefing as part of the Government Accountability Series. He explained that the funds were needed to implement sustainable environmental programmes aimed at protecting communities and strengthening climate resilience, adding that the country cannot mobilise the needed resources alone and is relying on strategic cooperation with international partners. Issifu said further the government is actively engaging development partners, in particular the EU, as part of efforts to secure financing for environmental projects. He did not provide details about projects or size of financing that is under discussion.

• Output from bigger mine Tarkwa falls by 25% y/y to 94,400 ounces
• Decrease attributed to lower yield, lower ore mined due to unplanned downtime
• Gold Fields says it is progressing on renewing Tarkwa lease which expires in April 2027

South Africa's Gold Fields released its results for Q1 2026 showing that production from its two Ghanian mines, Tarkwa and Damang, fell by 25.4% y/y to 113,400 ounces, which was attributed to lower tonnes milled and lower yield. Tarkwa's production decreased by 25.3% y/y to 94,400 ounces while Damang's production fell by 26.1% y/y to 19,000 ounces. We note that Gold Fields transferred the ownership and operational control of Damang to the government in April after its lease expired and was not renewed. The company said it was progressing on the renewal of the Tarkwa lease.

The drop in Tarkwa's output was attributed to a lower average feed grade as the mill processed a higher proportion of low-grade stockpile material, and to a reduced plant availability following unplanned downtime. Yield dropped by 20% y/y in Q1 due to the lower feed grade. The volume milled decreased by 6% y/y to 3.4mn tonnes due to the extended downtime to repair some equipment and unplanned breakdowns. The total capital spending on Tarkwa rose by 71% y/y to USD 96mn in Q1 due to higher capital waste tonnes mined and higher tailings storage facility (TSF) expenditure.

Providing details on its application to renew the Tarkwa lease, Gold Fields said it was filed in November 2025 as the lease expires in April 2027. It said it had engaged the government, and discussions are ongoing in the context of an evolving mining tax policy, including proposed amendments to mining legislation, tax measures and changes to the gold royalty regime introduced in March 2026. The company said it hoped to achieve a positive, mutually beneficial outcome that supports the long-term sustainability of the Tarkwa mine.

Ghana produced a total of 6.0mn ounces of gold in 2025, up 25% y/y. The national production is expected to grow further to 6.5mn ounces this year although there are risks linked to mining tax regime changes, which the Chamber of Mines has warned could slow new projects.

Ghana petitions AU over xenophobic attacks on African nationals in South Africa (Joy FM)

Never once did I interfere - Former AG Godfred Dame defends record with OSP (Joy FM)

Disinformation is a national security threat - Felix Kwakye Ofosu concerned over fake news (Joy FM)

Why issue OMO above policy rate? - Gideon Boako queries BoG strategy (Citi Newsroom)

9-hour blackout: ECG schedules maintenance exercises across 3 regions on May 7 (Daily Graphic)

Ghana eyes trade expansion with ministerial visit to Morocco (Daily Graphic)

BoG's negative equity doesn't make bank insolvent - Majority Caucus asserts (Daily Graphic)

High Court quashes $33.3 millon arbitral award against Justmoh Construction (Class FM)

• Fuel prices rise by 17-27% m/m resulting in slower transport price drop
• Food inflation inches down to 2.2% y/y but there are signs of emerging price pressures
• Central bank might pause policy normalisation

CPI inflation increased to 3.4% y/y in April from 3.2% y/y in March, the first acceleration since December 2024 which was mainly the result of higher fuel prices. Transport prices still fell in April, by 3.4% y/y, but the rate of decline eased from the 7.3% drop in March, as some prices in the category jumped significantly in m/m terms. More specifically, petrol prices rose by 17.2% m/m and their rate of decrease eased to 9.3% y/y and diesel prices jumped by 27.1% m/m and 1.3% y/y. Taxi fares rose by just 2.2% m/m and bus and trotro fares inched up 0.1% m/m but they might be hiked going forward if pressure on fuel prices persists. Restaurants and accommodation services was the only other category to contribute for the pickup in the headline inflation rate, and it was largely due to higher hotel prices.

Data Download

Almost all other categories, with the exception of housing and utilities, posted slower growth, but in many cases, it was due to base effect as prices rose in m/m terms. In housing and utilities, the faster growth in the rents was offset by the slowdown in solid fuel price growth. Food inflation inched down to 2.2% y/y but there were signs of upward pressure in some sub-categories. In m/m terms, CPI rose by 1.0% in April, up from 0.1% in March as food prices grew by 0.8%, reversing the 0.3% drop in March, while non-food prices rose by 1.1%, up from 0.3% in March. Most categories recorded faster monthly increases except for education, personal care, information and communication, and health.

The CPI data points to rising inflationary pressures in response to the increase in global oil prices and their impact on domestic fuel prices. This could lead the central bank to keep the rate unchanged at its next MPC meeting later this month although it signalled in March that it would change the pace of policy normalisation if price pressures threatened materially the inflation target. In early April, the central bank said that it did not expect inflation to move outside of the medium-term target range of 6-10% over the near term though it noted that if global oil prices began to materially threaten the disinflation path, they would act. Since the impact of higher fuel prices on the headline CPI print have so far been limited, and depending on their assessment of the risks, the central bank might still go ahead with policy normalisation but make a smaller rate cut.

• Debt stock rises by 5.6% y/y due to both domestic and external liabilities
• External debt growth is driven by international bond issuance, IMF funding
• Domestic debt grows at slower pace as issuance of govt securities eases
• Public debt is projected to decrease to 55.1% by end-2026 but Middle East conflict creates some risks

The central government debt decreased by 2.5% q/q to XOF 33,159bn at end-2025, according to the latest quarterly report released by the finance ministry. In y/y terms, the debt stock rose by 5.6% but its ratio to GDP still decreased to 57.1% from 59.5% at end-2024. We note that the nominal GDP number used for the calculations in the debt report appears to be around XOF 58.1tn, which is lower than the XOF 62.9tn reported by the statistical office for 2025 which means the ratio to GDP could be revised down.

When expressed in US dollars, the total debt stock rose at a faster pace, by 16.5% y/y to USD 58.4bn as the XOF strengthened vis-à-vis the US dollar. The stock of state-guaranteeddebt decreased by 40.5% y/y to XOF 239.6bn at end-2025, accounting for 0.4% of GDP, down from 0.8% a year earlier. Of it, the larger part or XOF 210.1bn, was external debt.

Data Download

Looking at the breakdown, the external portion of the government debt grew by 5.6% y/y to XOF 21,060bn at end-2025. In US dollars, it rose by 16.5% y/y to USD 37.1bn as the government issued a USD 1.75bn Eurobond and a XOF 220bn FCFA-denominated bond to international investors in March 2025, as well as JPY 50bn samurai bond in July 2025 and a USD 1.3bn Eurobond in February this year. In addition, it signed 47 external financing agreements for a total amount of XOF 3,286.2bn, including XOF 972.2bn in budget support (mostly from IMF) and XOF 1,268.5bn in project loans. In terms of currency, 67.2% of the external debt was in EUR, 16.1% in XOF, 11.4% in USD and 2.0% in CNY.

The domestic portion of the government debt grew by 5.6% y/y to XOF 12,099bn at end-2025, the rate of growing slowing from double-digits before. Most of the domestic debt stock, or about 92%, was in public securities, while the debt to BCEAO accounted for 7%. In terms of instruments, T-bonds accounted for 82.3% of total domestic debt, while T-bills - for 9.4%.

The public debt-to-GDP ratio is below the 70% convergence criteria of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). The IMF in its WEO April 2026 report projected Ivorian debt to decrease to 55.1% by end-2026 and further to 54% in 2029, as the government keeps the budget deficit within the 3% of GDP convergence norm. However, when reaching a staff-level agreement on the final reviews of the country's programmes with the Fund earlier this month, the IMF team said the fiscal deficit could exceed 3% this year depending on the evolution of the Middle East conflict, which might have an upward effect on debt too.

Debt service

The total debt service is projected to reach XOF 6,333bn this year, down from XOF 6,455bn (USD 11.4bn) in 2025, before decreasing gradually to XOF 3,436bn in 2030. These projections are based on outstanding debt at end-2025. The external debt service is projected at XOF 1,879bn this year, down from XOF 2,716bn (USD 4.8bn) in 2025, but is seen to rise to XOF 2,337bn in 2030.

• Government spokesperson says move is in response to criticism over the years
• He says government talks on structure of new electoral body to start soon
• Opposition welcomes move but calls for dialogue with political parties, civil society on reforms

The government adopted an order dissolving the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI). Announcing the decision, government spokesperson Amadou Coulibaly said it was done in response the reservations and criticism from civil society groups and political parties over the years. He said the move opens to way for the establishment of a new election management mechanism that can reassure political actors and Ivorians and guarantee the organisation of peaceful elections. Coulibaly said discussions within the government about the future structure of the electoral body would start soon, without mentioning anything about a wider consultation plan.

The structure of the electoral commission and the need to reform it were among the major issues raised by the opposition ever since its establishment. Its composition was changed a couple of times, but the opposition still questioned its independence given that the power remained skewed in favour of the ruling party and the government. It is interesting that after years of criticism and calls for reforms, it is only now that the government has decided to make such a big step in changing the electoral system. Commenting on the decision, the leader of the opposition party FPI, Pascal Affi N'Guessan, said it should now be followed by a dialogue with political and civil society organizations to rebuild the electoral system and ensure peace and stability.

• Targets KES 2.985tn in tax revenue and KES 120bn from new measures
• The macro outlook has softened amid the Iran war

The Treasury has tabled a KES 4.78tn budget for FY26/27 in parliament, outlining higher tax collection and borrowing targets as authorities seek to manage mounting fiscal pressures and a weaker economic outlook linked partly to the Middle East conflict. Budget estimates submitted to the National Assembly project KRA collections of KES 2.985tn in the fiscal year starting in July, up 7.2% from KES 2.784tn targeted in the current year. Treasury documents also show the government expects proposed tax measures under the Finance Bill 2026 to generate KES 120.3bn, sharply above the roughly KES 30bn targeted under the previous finance law.

The macroeconomic backdrop has in the meantime softened, with the Treasury revising its 2026 growth forecast down to 5.0% from 5.3% previously amid concerns over higher oil prices, inflationary pressures and weaker external demand linked to the Iran conflict. Authorities also expect the current account deficit to widen to 3.0% of GDP from 2.2% previous forecast.

• Appointment restores Supreme Court to full bench after Justice Ibrahim's death
• Judiciary plans to appoint 52 judges this year to reduce case backlog

Justice Mohamed Warsame was sworn in as a judge of the Supreme Court at State House in Nairobi on Thursday, filling the vacancy left by the death of Justice Mohammed Ibrahim in December 2025 and restoring the court to its full constitutional complement. President Ruto, who formally appointed Warsame through a Gazette notice dated May 5, said the judge was joining the apex court at a critical stage in the development of Kenya's constitutional jurisprudence. Ruto said the Supreme Court had played a central role in safeguarding the constitution and resolving major legal and constitutional disputes since its establishment under the 2010 constitution.

Warsame was nominated by the Judicial Service Commission on April 29 following a competitive recruitment process in which five shortlisted candidates underwent public interviews. Chief Justice Martha Koome said the commission selected Warsame after background checks and consultations with stakeholders across the legal sector, academia, civil society and faith-based organisations, citing his professional competence, integrity and experience.

Warsame has served at the Court of Appeal since 2012 and previously held positions in the High Court's commercial, criminal and judicial review divisions. He also chaired the Community Service and Probation Committee, where he oversaw the release of thousands of petty offenders from prison through non-custodial measures.

His appointment comes amid broader judiciary reforms, with the JSC planning to recruit 52 additional judges across superior courts this year as authorities seek to reduce case backlogs and improve efficiency in the justice system.

• M-Pesa and mobile data drove double-digit revenue growth across the group
• Results come as the government plans partial sale of its Safaricom stake

Safaricom posted a record KES 99.7bn net profit in the financial year ended March 2026, up 67.3% y/y, supported by strong M-Pesa and mobile data growth as losses at its Ethiopia business narrowed sharply. The telecoms operator said total revenue rose 11.1% y/y to KES 414.1bn, while service revenue from the Kenya business increased 10% to KES 400.9bn. Group EBITDA rose 35.4% to KES 220.5bn and EBIT climbed 58.5% to KES 153.9bn.

M-Pesa remained the key growth driver, accounting for 59.2% of total revenue growth, with revenue from the mobile money platform rising 13.4% y/y. The connectivity business, still the largest contributor to revenue, grew 6.9%, supported by a 14.4% increase in mobile data revenue, while fixed service revenue rose 12.2%.

Safaricom said its Ethiopia unit continued to improve, with service revenue from the business jumping 58.3% to KES 14.1bn as subscriber growth and network expansion helped reduce losses linked to the group's costly market entry in 2022. CEO Peter Ndegwa said Kenya had delivered an "outstanding performance" while Ethiopia made a "valuable contribution" to one of the group's strongest results yet.

The company proposed a total dividend payout of KES 2.00 per share for FY25/26, up 66.7% from the previous year, including an interim dividend of KES 0.85 per share and a final dividend of KES 1.15 per share.

The results come as the government plans a partial sale of its 35% Safaricom stake as part of broader efforts to raise financing and support the budget. It is expected to receive KES 204bn from the sale of 15% stake as well as an upfront payment of KES 40.2bn in lieu of future dividends linked to the residual 20% shareholding covered by the transaction.

Maize imports jump 51pc after duty-free yellow grain window (Business Daily)

Private sector activity contracts for second month (Business Daily)

Affordable housing bosses to earn Sh86bn profit (Nation)

Fuel crisis hits as State defends higher sulphur imports (Nation)

Ruto accused of ignoring Kenyans safety for the sake of trade deals (The Standard)

Gulf Energy at the centre of yet another 'dirty fuel' drama (The Standard)

Reimagining EAC trade opportunities through deepened Tanzania-Kenya ties (The Star)

KCB rides on data to disburse digital loans worth Sh1.5 billion daily (The Star)

Former DP Rigathi Gachagua's impeachment case resumes Thursday (Kenya Broadcasting Corporation)

Ruto Welcomes New Ambassadors, Urges Stronger Kenya Ties (Capital News)

President Ruto under fire over diplomatic gaffes after Tanzania State visit (Citizen)

Activists condemn Suluhu over 'crack the whip' remarks on Gen Z protests (Citizen)

LSK Raises Alarm Over President Suluhu's Remarks in Front of Ruto (Kenyans.co.ke)

Chaos as Sections of Nairobi Matatu Operators Stage Protests (Kenyans.co.ke)

• Diesel prices jump 45.5% while petrol prices rise 12.3% from May 7
• Authorities cite Middle East disruptions, higher import costs and supply strains

The government has sharply increased fuel prices after weeks of shortages and supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict and rising import costs, according to local media reports, citing decisions taken at a cabinet meeting. It approved an increase in diesel prices to MZN 116.25 (USD 1.82) per litre from MZN 79.88 previously, while petrol prices rose to MZN 93.86 (USD 1.47) per litre from MZN 83.57. The adjustment implies a 45.5% increase for diesel and a 12.3% increase for petrol, marking Mozambique's first major fuel price revision since the escalation of the Middle East conflict began disrupting global energy markets and shipping routes.

Authorities said the country's fuel import bill had risen sharply as Mozambique remained heavily dependent on imports routed through the Strait of Hormuz. Economy minister Basílio Muhate earlier said the government was seeking alternative suppliers and shipping routes to reduce exposure to Gulf-related disruptions, although officials acknowledged procurement costs would likely remain elevated. The increases follow weeks of long queues and intermittent shortages at filling stations, with the government previously acknowledging that some fuel distributors were struggling to secure dollar-denominated bank guarantees needed to finance imports. Authorities have also accused some companies of hoarding fuel in anticipation of higher pump prices.

• About 80% of Mozambique's fuel imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz
• Authorities warn gradual fuel price increases may become unavoidable
• Crisis raises near-term inflation and fiscal risks

Government announced that it is seeking alternative fuel import sources as conflict-related disruptions in the Middle East continue to strain supplies and raise the prospect of higher domestic fuel prices. Economy Minister Basílio Muhate said the government is pursuing new agreements and partnerships with other fuel-producing countries to mitigate shortages linked to the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The crisis has exposed Mozambique's vulnerability as a net fuel importer heavily dependent on Gulf energy routes. Around 80% of the country's fuel imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping corridor now affected by regional conflict and maritime disruptions. Fuel shortages have already led to long queues at service stations, temporary closures, rationing measures, and transport disruptions across the country.

Authorities said Mozambique has begun sourcing fuel from refineries outside the Gulf region using alternative shipping routes, although these arrangements are expected to raise procurement and logistics costs. Prime Minister Benvinda Levi has warned that gradual domestic fuel price adjustments may become inevitable as international market pressures intensify. The government has also indicated that a budget revision could be considered under a severe scenario of prolonged oil price shocks. Finance Minister Carla Loveira previously said Mozambique retains roughly EUR 5.2mn in its fuel price stabilisation fund, which could help cushion some of the immediate impact. The rising fuel import costs pose significant inflationary and fiscal risks. Higher energy prices are likely to feed into transport and food costs, increasing imported inflation pressures in an economy already facing external financing constraints. As things stand, the March inflation reading of 3.37% y/y predates the full impact of Middle East fuel supply disruptions, meaning that the projected rise to 7.5% by year-end as flagged by the World Bank now appears increasingly plausible if alternative fuel sourcing fails to stabilise pump prices and contain passthrough to transport and food costs.

• Draft law would require quarter of LNG output to serve domestic market
• Govt seeks greater state control and stronger local industrial benefits
• Changes come as major LNG projects advance toward production expansion

Government proposed requiring at least 25% of all liquefied natural gas (LNG) production to be allocated to the domestic market under a revised Petroleum Law aimed at strengthening state control over the country's hydrocarbon resources. The draft legislation, which is set for parliamentary debate, forms part of broader reforms designed to maximise economic returns from the country's rapidly expanding LNG sector. Under the proposal, LNG producers would be obligated to reserve a minimum share of production for domestic consumption, while 100% of condensate output would also be directed to the local market. Authorities argue the reforms are necessary to support industrialisation, expand energy access, and create stronger domestic value chains as Mozambique emerges as a major global LNG exporter. The revised framework also seeks to increase state participation in petroleum operations, strengthen the regulatory powers of the National Petroleum Institute (INP), and improve oversight of costs, local content, and environmental compliance. Additional provisions include mandatory human rights reporting and mechanisms to ensure affected communities benefit from resource development.

The reforms come as Mozambique's LNG industry enters a new expansion phase. Eni's Coral Sul project has been operational since 2022, while the Coral Norte expansion is expected to double floating LNG production capacity from 2028. TotalEnergies' USD 20bn Mozambique LNG project resumed in January after a four-year suspension linked to insecurity in Cabo Delgado, and ExxonMobil's Rovuma LNG project is targeting a final investment decision later this year. Authorities increasingly view domestic gas utilisation as central to broader economic transformation rather than solely an export revenue source. By reserving part of LNG production for local use, the government aims to support industrial activity, electricity generation, and downstream manufacturing, while reducing dependence on imported fuels over the longer term. The proposed reforms signal a shift toward resource nationalism and developmental state policies as Mozambique seeks to translate its vast gas reserves into broader economic gains.

• Government resumes promotions and career progressions under revised pay framework
• Around 180,500 public servants identified as eligible beneficiaries
• Move comes as public wage bill remains among highest in the region
• IMF continues to push for fiscal consolidation and wage restraint reforms

Government allocated MZN 1bn (USD 15.5mn) to support the gradual resumption of promotions, career progressions, and category changes within the civil service, as authorities attempt to balance public sector reforms with mounting fiscal pressures. Prime Minister Benvinda Levi announced the measure in parliament following the approval of new regulations governing career structures, remuneration, and professional qualifications in the public sector. According to the government, approximately 180,500 public servants meet the criteria to benefit from the administrative measures, which had faced delays amid broader fiscal constraints and challenges linked to implementation of the Single Wage Tariff (TSU) reform.

We note that the move comes against the backdrop of a rapidly expanding public wage bill. Finance Ministry data show government wage expenditure reached MZN 209bn in 2025, exceeding the initial budget allocation by 3%. Public sector wage costs remain elevated at 14.4% of GDP, according to the IMF, among the highest levels in the region and accounting for roughly half of total government spending. The TSU reform, introduced in 2022 to standardise salaries and reduce pay disparities, increased public sector wages by roughly 36%, significantly raising monthly expenditure. However, implementation difficulties, including delayed payments and salary disputes, triggered strikes among teachers, doctors, and other public sector workers.

We further recall that recently, government approved minimum wage increases of between 3% and 9.8% across various sectors, in a move aimed at balancing worker income pressures with business sustainability, though key segments have been excluded. The adjustments were determined through tripartite negotiations involving the government, employers and trade unions, with authorities framing the outcome as a compromise aligned with current economic conditions. According to the government, the wage revisions reflect sector-specific realities, including productivity levels, firm capacity and broader macroeconomic constraints. The IMF has urged Mozambique to accelerate fiscal consolidation by reducing the wage bill to 11% of GDP by 2028 and eliminating the 13th salary for public workers from 2026. Against this backdrop, the government's phased approach to promotions reflects efforts to address civil service grievances but clearly at a fiscal cost with an already stretched financial envelope.

• Moody's sees debt peaking in 2025 and expects stabilisation this year
• Primary surplus projected above debt-stabilising threshold by 2027
• GNU stability and fiscal reforms viewed as supportive for credit outlook

Moody's latest issuer report ahead of its scheduled May 22 sovereign review suggests the agency is becoming more constructive on South Africa's fiscal trajectory following the publication of the 2026 Budget Review in February. The agency maintained the still-high debt levels and elevated borrowing costs remained a key constraint on ratings. However, Moody's now believes that the debt-to-GDP ratio is close to a turning point. The agency estimated that the general government debt peaked at 86.8% of GDP in 2025 and will stabilise this year before declining gradually over the coming years. This assessment seems to be reinforced by Moody's projection that the primary surplus will rise to 1.8% of GDP in 2027, which is above the level it believes is necessary to stabilise debt dynamics (1.5% of GDP). Essentially, the primary surplus will be sufficient to prevent debt from rising further.

The agency explicitly stated that the 2026 budget confirmed the authorities' commitment to fiscal consolidation, displaying stronger confidence in the Treasury's ability to maintain expenditure restraint while benefiting from improved revenue performance and lower funding costs. Moody's said specifically that the planned introduction of a fiscal rule would be an important anchor for more prudent public finance management, which is an institutional upgrade that would be positive for ratings in our view.

Moody's also highlighted the improved macroeconomic policy credibility following the move toward a lower inflation target could help reduce risk premia and funding costs over time, supporting debt sustainability. Together with ongoing reforms in electricity, logistics and water infrastructure, Moody's expects medium-term growth to strengthen gradually toward 2%, supported by higher investment and resilient consumption.

With respect to politics, the agency's baseline assumption is that the Government of National Unity will hold through its term, with coalition governance reducing the probability of a sharp shift toward more credit-negative policies. Moody's also argued that the transition from majority rule to coalition government lowers the risk of abrupt policy reversals, even as the country approaches the 2026 municipal and 2029 national election cycle. This represents a more constructive interpretation of South Africa's political environment than in prior years, when concerns around policy uncertainty and institutional weakening featured more prominently in sovereign risk assessments.

Nonetheless, credit challenges are far from resolved as the agency repeatedly emphasised that debt levels remain high and costly, with interest payments consuming nearly one-fifth of government revenue. It also acknowledged external risks, including Middle East tensions, as a near-term threat to growth and fiscal projections. Moody's currently rates South Africa at Ba2 with stable outlook which is a notch higher than BB- but with positive outlook from S&P. While it seems that a change of the outlook to positive is not yet on the cards, the country seems to be on the right track.

• Treasury may withhold Johannesburg's ZAR 8bn July equitable share
• Controversial ZAR 10.3bn wage agreement followed union threats to disrupt G20 Summit
• Johannesburg faces downgrade from Moody's and GCR

Finance minister Enoch Godongwana warned the City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality that it could lose its July equitable share payment in the amount of ZAR 8bn unless mayor Dada Morero reverses a controversial ZAR 10.3bn wage deal offered to municipal workers last year. In a strongly worded letter, Godongwana raised concerns about the city's deteriorating financial governance, citing insolvency driven by weak revenue collection and overspending of roughly ZAR 3.9bn on staff costs, electricity purchases, inventory, and operational expenses. Withholding the funds could seriously disrupt services for Johannesburg's more than six million residents.

The City entered into the agreement that aimed to align the municipal salaries with those in other major metros and committed a wage package of ZAR 10.3bn by 2027. This happened after the South African Municipal Workers' Union (SAMWU) threatened to disrupt the 2025 G20 Leaders' Summit in Johannesburg through major freeway shutdowns unless it got the pay adjustments. Godongwana said the agreement was signed illegally. It includes phased payments ranging from ZAR 1.2-2.0bn by March 2026, ZAR 5-6bn by July 2026, and a further ZAR 4.1bn by July 2027.

Moody's announced in April that it was reviewing Johannesburg's Ba3 long-term issuer and debt ratings for downgrade after the JSE suspended the city's bonds because it failed to publish audited financial statements on time. The agency cited deteriorating governance, weak transparency, liquidity risks, and reduced access to debt markets. Moody's warned that Johannesburg's cash buffers were thin and that being locked out of capital markets could worsen refinancing risks. Separately, South African ratings agency GCR downgraded the city's credit outlook, confirming the broader governance and financial management crisis at the metro.

Godongwana has already warned of a serious accountability crisis in the City of Johannesburg after uncovering ZAR 1.4bn in unauthorised expenditure, ZAR 22bn in irregular spending, and ZAR 705m in fruitless and wasteful expenditure. Mayor Morero has officially requested an engagement with Godongwana whose date is yet to be confirmed.

• Eskom will assist with billing, revenue collection, infrastructure maintenance and debt recovery amid mounting unpaid electricity debt
• Eskom targeted 14 municipalities with arrears, three now face possible electricity supply interruptions from May 8
• Total municipal debt stands at ZAR 111.6bn and rising, which is a significant challenge for Eskom

Nine municipalities, including Nketoana, Mpofana, Masilonyana, Nala, Ngwathe, Renosterberg, Thembelihle, Govan Mbeki and Egetlengrivier have agreed to give Eskom a direct role in parts of their electricity distribution operations after a legal consultation process launched in March under the Promotion of Administrative Justice Act (PAJA). The municipalities are among 14 targeted by Eskom over unpaid bulk electricity accounts and failures to comply with conditions linked to National Treasury's municipal debt relief programme.

Municipalities owe Eskom about ZAR 111.6bn, with some accounts reportedly unpaid for as long as 18 months. Under the distribution agency agreements signed with the power utility, Eskom will assist municipalities with functions such as electricity billing, revenue collection, infrastructure maintenance and debt recovery. The term of the agreements is defined and temporary. Eskom said implementation discussions are ongoing.

Three municipalities including Dr Beyers Naude (Eastern Cape), Kai Garib (Northern Cape) and Mamusa (North West) failed to present acceptable repayment or intervention plans after receiving PAJA notices. Eskom has issued final notices warning that electricity supply interruptions are scheduled to begin on May 8, although engagements are still ongoing. Separately, Eskom reached a prepaid electricity arrangement with Inxuba Yethemba municipality in the Eastern Cape, under which electricity is supplied only once advance payment has been made.

Eskom said municipal debt remains one of its biggest financial and operational challenges and that the interventions are aimed at protecting the stability of the electricity supply system and improving revenue collection.

SA to launch track-and-trace system to stamp out smuggling (Business Day)

Godongwana gets tough with Joburg (Business Day)

Eskom secures deals with nine municipalities in R111bn debt crackdown (Business Day)

PIC takes R350bn knock in assets due to US-Iran war (Business Day)

Helen Zille warns Johannesburg 'effectively bankrupt' (Business Day)

State invokes Boer War, apartheid past to defend B-BBEE legal sector codes (News24)

From wine to robots: SA exporters set to win big in China tariff purge (News24)

Fight over US frozen chicken: SA producers take govt to court (News24)

'SA not xenophobic': Magwenya urges African states to confront reasons why people leave (News24)

UPDATE | President won't be rushed into making a decision about Tolashe (News24)

Joburg wants households to pay 66% more to receive water (Moneyweb)

Ekurhuleni electricity tariff application inflated by billions (Moneyweb)

'Redo NHI process', says Western Cape Premier Winde as ConCourt ponders challenges (Daily Maverick)

Ramaphosa didn't know he was meeting wealthy Zimbabwean wanted in SA - spokesperson (Daily Maverick)

More storms expected in waterlogged Nelson Mandela Bay (Daily Maverick)

• Amount sold is only slightly below target
• 182-day T-bill yield is the only one to drop as govt accepts least bids for this tenor
• Securities issued this FY so far reach 90% of revised full-year plan

The government sold UGX 351bn T-bills at the auction held by the Bank of Uganda on May 6, only slightly below the targeted UGX 355bn. The total bids amounted to UGX 626.4bn translating into a subscription rate of 1.8. The government opted to sell 91-day and 364-day T-bills above target but 182-day T-bills below target. As a result, the yields on the former increased by 12-24bps while the yield on the 182-day T-bill decreased by 4bps.

Yields have been mixed recently amid emerging pressures on the shilling and the upward effect of the Middle East conflict on fuel prices. The government has attempted to avoid excessive rise in yields by sometimes selling securities below target with changing success. With this auction, the total government securities issued this fiscal year (starting Jul 1) reached UGX 22.6tn, equivalent to 90% of the revised borrowing plan of about UGX 25.1tn, suggesting it might be exceeded and/or revised again.

Freedom of assembly has been curtailed under UPND (News Diggers)

Angola wishes Zambia peaceful, fair elections (News Diggers)

Those who won't be adopted will be appointed as ambassadors - HH (News Diggers)

Govt reaffirms Zambia-Israel ties (News Diggers)

PF: Morgan Ng'ona loses, as Appeal Court dismisses bid to stop Miles Sampa from effecting leadership change (Zambia Monitor)

EU claims Enterprise Zambia Challenge Fund created 3,000 jobs, paid EUR 40M to small-scale farmers (Zambia Monitor)

Zambia-Tanzania bilateral trade hits USD 11.85 billion (Zambia Monitor)

• National Assembly to sit through weekends until May 12
• Extended hours aimed at clearing legislative backlog before adjournment in preparation for August polls

The National Assembly extended parliamentary sittings through May 12, including weekend sessions, as lawmakers seek to conclude a large volume of pending legislative business before adjournment sine die. The decision follows government plans to table and process 74 bills within the current sitting period, reflecting one of the heaviest legislative agendas in recent years. According to Acting Clerk of the National Assembly Loveness Mayaka, the House will sit daily from 10:00 hours CAT until business is concluded, including beyond the standard adjournment time where necessary. To facilitate the accelerated schedule, parliament suspended several Standing Orders governing sitting times and legislative procedures. The changes allow lawmakers to sit outside prescribed hours, continue proceedings past 23:00 hours, and consider multiple stages of a bill within a single sitting. The move signals an effort to fast-track key legislative reforms ahead of the next parliamentary cycle and the August 2026 general elections. While details of all pending bills have not been disclosed, the legislative push is expected to include measures linked to economic governance, infrastructure, pensions, and sectoral reforms already introduced in recent weeks.

• Nine-month saleable copper production reaches 2,177 tonnes
• Roan concentrator output more than doubles on expansion progress
• Molefe mine scaling up as company reviews FY 2026 guidance

UK-listed miner Jubilee Metals reported a 28.7% y/y increase in total saleable copper production to 2,177 tonnes for the nine months ended March 2026, supported by higher output from its Zambian processing operations and ongoing mine expansion activities. Production at the Roan concentrator rose 112.7% y/y to 1,999 tonnes of copper units, reflecting improved operational performance and progress on the expanded concentrate dewatering circuit. The company said commissioning of the upgraded facility is nearing completion, with ramp-up under way and operations currently running at around 75% of the targeted monthly production rate of 110-120 tonnes of contained copper. The dewatering circuit has a design capacity of approximately 230 tonnes of contained copper per month, enabling simultaneous processing of a 14,000-tonne historical stockpile alongside new fine copper concentrate production. At the Sable refinery, copper cathode production increased to 957 tonnes from 751 tonnes in the comparable prior-year period. Mining activity at the Molefe operation also expanded, with over 250,000 tonnes of ore mined during the period. Jubilee is accelerating stripping activities to merge Pits 2 and 3 into a larger open-pit operation, a move expected to significantly increase ore deliveries to the Sable refinery once completed. Despite the production gains, Jubilee said it is reviewing FY 2026 copper guidance due to delays in commissioning the expanded Roan circuit and adjustments to the Molefe mine plan following updated drilling results.

We recall that in February, Jubilee Metals reported improved first-half performance from its Zambian copper operations for the first six months of its 2025 financial year, which runs from January to December. Production rose despite heavy seasonal rainfall disrupting logistics during Zambia's rainy season. Total saleable copper output reached 1,543 tonnes, an 8.7% year-on-year increase, excluding stockpiled copper fines and mined material at Molefe. Management maintained full-year guidance of 4,500-5,100 tonnes, implying stronger second-half delivery as seasonal pressures ease. Zambia's copper output rose 8% y/y to 890,346 tonnes in 2025, but still fell short of the 1mn tonne target, reflecting disruptions at Sino Metals and lower grades at FQM's Trident, partly offset by strong recoveries at KCM, Mopani, Kansanshi and Lubambe.