• Non-oil private sector shows signs of stabilisation
• Rate of job creation accelerates
• Business sentiment improves in August

The headline PMI climbed nearly three points from 46.8 in July to 49.6 in August. The latest reading was the highest recorded in seven months and signalled only a marginal decline in business conditions, according to S&P Global. Readings below 50 show a contraction, while readings above 50 are an expansion.

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Egypt's non-oil private sector showed encouraging signs of stabilisation in August. The improvement was broad-based, with softer declines in both output and new orders, while employment rose at a near-record rate and business confidence reached its highest in over four years. At the same time, inflationary pressures intensified in August, following marked cooldowns in June and July. Material shortages and liquidity concerns were also highlighted, with firms often reducing their purchases in response.

The easing contraction was most visible in the survey's output and demand metrics. Although new business continued to fall during August, the pace of decline was modest and the least marked since February, as a number of companies commented on signs of improving market activity. Output levels also fell to a lesser extent, helped by a much slower downturn in service sector activity.

Another notable development in August was an uplift in employment levels. Not only was this the first increase since October 2025, but the rate of job creation was the second-fastest since the survey began over 15 years ago. The rise in workforce numbers was partly a response to capacity pressures that built up over recent months. The hiring spree led to backlogs of work stabilising after three months of accumulation.

Finally, business sentiment improved markedly in August, reaching its highest level since June 2022. More than 21% of respondents expect growth in the coming year, which they linked to anticipated new projects, tourism expansion, and branch openings.

Chinese President Xi Jinping concludes 48-hour historic visit to Egypt (Ahram Online)

Egypt-China partnership expands with new investment & technology deals (Egypt Today)

Egypt's garment exports reach USD 2.14bn in first seven months in 2026 (Egypt Today)

Egypt, Oman explore joint industrial zones to deepen economic integration (Daily News Egypt)

Mansour Group, China's Tianneng sign MoU to explore battery manufacturing investment in Egypt (Daily News Egypt)

Egypt moves to ease manufacturers' access to foreign markets (Egypt Business Directory)

• Corporate tax relief for small businesses now extends to Dec 31, 2029
• Eligible small businesses must still register and file returns

The UAE has extended its Small Business Relief programme for corporate tax purposes until the end of 2029, giving eligible small businesses and start-ups additional time to benefit from simplified tax requirements, according to official sources. Under Ministerial Decision No. 131 of 2026, businesses can continue claiming the relief for tax periods ending on or before Dec 31, 2029. The UAE previously planned to end the measure after tax periods concluding on Dec 31, 2026.

The extension keeps the programme's existing AED 3mn (USD 817,000) annual revenue threshold unchanged. Resident taxable businesses whose revenue does not exceed that level can claim Small Business Relief, subject to the conditions set out in the corporate tax legislation.

The measure does not eliminate businesses' compliance obligations. Companies benefiting from the relief must still register for corporate tax and submit simplified tax returns within the prescribed deadlines. The Federal Tax Authority has stressed that eligible businesses remain subject to these requirements even when they do not have corporate tax to pay.

The extension is significant because it provides smaller companies with greater certainty as the UAE's corporate tax regime becomes more established. The UAE introduced a 9% federal corporate tax on taxable income above AED 375,000 for financial years beginning on or after June 1, 2023. Small Business Relief provides a targeted exception for smaller enterprises rather than changing the wider tax framework.

The Ministry of Finance said the extension would help strengthen the business environment while maintaining a competitive tax system aligned with international standards.

The government is therefore using tax policy to support its broader economic diversification strategy. Rather than reducing the corporate tax rate across the economy, it is preserving targeted relief for smaller companies while maintaining the wider 9% framework.

• Index rises to highest level since February
• However, employment decreases slightly

The Dubai PMI rose sharply from 51.7 in July to 54.1 in August, signalling a strong improvement in business conditions, according to S&P Global. Output and new order growth rose to six-month highs in August.

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Dubai's non-oil private sector experienced stronger business activity growth during August as companies highlighted higher client spending and an improvement in export trade. The data also signalled the quickest rise in input stocks since December 2017.

Meanwhile, employment declined slightly, contributing to capacity pressures.

In contrast to the UAE trend, Dubai non-oil companies recorded an acceleration of price pressures in August, with total input costs rising at the fastest rate in four months.

• Index rises to highest level since December 2024
• Employment falls for second consecutive month
• Business expectations for upcoming year become more optimistic

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global UAE Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 52.7 in July to 55.3 in August, pointing to an acceleration in growth for the second consecutive month. Furthermore, the improvement in operating conditions was the fastest since December 2024, when the index reached 55.4.

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Non-oil companies reported a substantial rise in new business in August, the joint-strongest for more than two years, as well as sharper output growth, inventory expansion, easing supply constraints and lower price pressures.

The upturn in August reflected a combination of growing sales momentum and renewed stock buildouts. The former was highlighted by a steep increase in new work inflows that was the joint-quickest since March 2024. Companies remarked on an improvement in customer activity that came amid an easing of economic caution arising from the Middle East conflict. Export demand also increased, marking back-to-back expansions following a period of decline throughout the second quarter.

Output levels rose to a greater extent during August, representing the fastest upturn for six months. As well as rising order book volumes, non-oil companies also related higher activity to ongoing project progressions, client digital migrations and reduced logistics challenges.

However, companies also reported a build-up of unfinished orders. The pace of new order growth reportedly left some companies with insufficient time to scale up operations. Furthermore, ongoing uncertainty surrounding the regional conflict and its macroeconomic effects made companies hesitant to recruit staff, contributing to a reduction in employment levels for the second time in three months.

Looking forward, business expectations for the coming year improved in August, reaching their highest level since April. Optimism was partly linked to improving sales trends, as well as optimism surrounding construction projects and hopes for an easing of regional tensions.

• Stop rates unchanged for two tenors; 364-day rate decreased
• CBN allotted NGN 865.7bn in total
• Subscriptions reached NGN 3.35tn against NGN 750bn offer

The CBN offered NGN 500bn worth of one-year T-bills at its regular auction held on Sep 2 and ultimately allotted 152% of this at NGN 762.2bn, according to data released by the CBN. Demand for the one-year bills was high at NGN 3.24tn (97% of all subscriptions and more than six times the offer). Total investor interest across three tenors reached NGN 3.35tn, against the combined NGN 750bn offer. The CBN only sold NGN 27.3bn of 182-day T-bills (27% of the NGN 100bn offer). The 91-day bills were allotted at NGN 76.3bn, at 51% of the NGN 150bn offer. Across the three tenors this week, the CBN sold a total of NGN 865.7bn which is 26% of total bids. This allotment is up from NGN 762.9bn last week.

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The CBN lowered the stop rate on its 364-day T-bill by 31bps to 16.84% (from 17.15% previously), after also lowering it last week. This is the first week the stop rate has been below 17% since June. According to some analysts, the intense appetite and resulting rate decline strengthen the case for moderation in interest rates. The MPC will meet later this month on Sep 21 and 22. Meanwhile, stop rates on the 91-day and 182-day bills were unchanged this week at 16.3% and 16.5% respectively.

Fake agency: Reps uncover 58 accounts, probe N400m deal (Punch)

2027 poll: INEC fears AI-powered disinformation (Punch)

Workers demand N300,000 minimum wage (Punch)

NLNG/SEPNU leads as domestic cooking gas supply rises (Punch)

W'Bank backs tariff, subsidy reforms in Nigeria's power sector (Punch)

Aliko Dangote: FG's Reforms Driving Nigeria's Economic Recovery, Restoring Investors' Confidence (ThisDay)

Wike: I'll Be Atiku, Obi's Main Target If Tinubu Loses 2027 Polls (ThisDay)

FG urged to cut aviation charges as high costs keep airfares out of reach (Nairametrics)

Bolt vows to stay in Nigeria despite Uber exit, industry challenges (Nairametrics)

SEC proposes N3 billion minimum capital for forex brokers, N5 billion for trading platforms (Nairametrics)

• Exit comes despite Uber's USD 100mn investment in Moove in 2024
• Rising fuel, maintenance costs, commissions squeezed driver margins

Uber officially shut down its ride-hailing operations in Nigeria on Wednesday (Sep 2) after announcing it on the same day, ending its 12-year presence in the country. This exit comes despite Uber's USD 100mn investment in Lagos-based mobility fintech Moove in 2024. Moove, Uber's vehicle-financing partner in emerging markets, later raised USD 250mn at a USD 2.1bn valuation as it expanded beyond Africa. Uber said the decision to withdraw from Nigeria follows a review of its business. Although Uber wasn't specific, this likely reflects growing challenges for ride-hailing platforms in Africa where high operating costs and regulatory hurdles make profitability difficult. The company also exited Uganda on Wednesday as part of a global restructuring that will eliminate around 3,300 jobs (10% of its workforce). Uber previously withdrew from Tanzania in Jan 2026 and Ivory Coast in Sep 2025.

In Nigeria, drivers have faced rising fuel and maintenance costs alongside commissions of up to 25-30%, which prompted drivers to go on a three-day strike in Lagos in March. Ride fares struggled to keep pace with inflation and this squeezed driver margins. Regulatory tensions have also increased, including a suspension of Uber and Bolt operations at Nigerian airports in August after a dispute with the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria over airport pick-up operations. Uber's departure leaves Bolt as the leading ride-hailing platform in Nigeria.

Question:

What were the Jan to July figures in 2025, so we can compare this period y/y for the 7 months?

The question was asked in relation to the following story: NNPC remits NGN 7.91tn to Federation Account from Jan to July

Answer:

According to the Aug 2025 summary report, the figure for the first 7 months was NGN 8.86tn. So, the first 7 months of 2026 are down 10.7% y/y. It appears the main reason is lower actual crude and condensate sales volumes which are weaker in several months of 2026 compared with 2025. July 2026 was down to 21.5mn barrels, from 25.5mn in July 2025 (-15.7%). May was very weak (18.95mn in 2026 versus 24.8mn in 2025, -23.6%). The lower sales volumes are likely due to the rising crude allocations to domestic refining and barrels pre-committed under forward-sale arrangements.

• Wage increases at slower pace in July, flash estimate shows
• Employee jobs increase in m/m and y/y terms in Jun-Jul

The real average wage of salaried Israeli workers rose by 5.3% y/y in June (seasonally-adjusted data), marking the twelfth consecutive increase, the stat office (CBS) reported on Thursday. The wage growth accelerated from 5.1% y/y in May due to the easing CPI inflation. In nominal sa terms, wages grew by a slower 7.0% y/y in June, after increasing by 7.2% in May. Since April, wages have been benefitting from an increase in the minimum wage and the widening in the income tax brackets. According to the flash estimate of the CBS based on partial data, the nominal average wage (non-adjusted) rose by a slower 3.3% y/y in July. However, the CPI inflation eased slightly by 0.1pps to 1.5% y/y, which suggests that the growth in real wages may have eased at a slightly slower pace.

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The number of Israeli employees, also part of the survey, increased by a stronger 2.2% y/y in July, after growing by 0.6% y/y in the previous month. In monthly terms, the employee jobs increased for the third consecutive month, confirming a return to normality. The job positions continued increasing m/m and y/y in July, hinting that the labour market has more or less recovered from the war in March and early April. Overall, the labour market remains relatively tight and the rising wages might result in a faster increase in private demand, which in turn may fuel inflation going forward in the absence of the easing effect of the shekel appreciation, in our opinion.

Israel razes most of West Bank village, dozens of Palestinians left homeless (Haaretz)

Peru to sever diplomatic ties with Iran amid Latin America's pro-Israel shift (Haaretz)

[Global online payments platform] PayPal lays off nearly a fourth of its employees in Israel (Haaretz)

Israel's election mudslinging hits a new low with toxic Oct 7 treason theories (Jerusalem Post)

[PM Benjamin] Netanyahu warns that an attack from Tehran would be 'one of their last decisions' (Jerusalem Post)

Israel's undersea fleet on its way to a new era (Jerusalem Post)

The shortage of doctors is about to deepen: 24% of specialists in hospitals are approaching retirement age (Calcalist)

Money is leaving Israel: A revolution in mutual funds (Calcalist)

[Provider of advanced metrology solutions for semiconductor manufacturing] Nova announces a plan to buy back its own shares for approximately USD 200mn (TheMarker)

Ministry of Foreign Affairs investigates: Shadow mechanism allows anti-Israel Turkish activists to enter the country (Globes)

The data reveals: NIS 20bn move from banks to the capital market in two years (Globes)

• Abir says future decisions to depend on inflation, reaction of economy to latest cut
• Abir says latest economic growth figure has been reasonable but not exceptional
• BoI reduced key policy rate by another 25bps to 3.25% on Sep 1

The Bank of Israel (BoI) may further reduce its benchmark interest rate if CPI inflation remains low and the economy reacts favourably to the recent third consecutive cut, deputy BoI governor Andrew Abir told Reuters. He explained that the main reason for the latest policy rate cut was the subdued 1.5% y/y CPI inflation in July, which remained below the midpoint of the 1-3% y/y target range of the central bank. We note that the BoI reduced on Tuesday (Sep 1) its benchmark interest rate by another 0.25pps to a nearly four-year low of 3.25%. Abir commented that the CPI inflation slowdown is in contrast to the accelerating price growth across the world and has been supported by the local currency's (NIS) strength against the USD. He said that there is no compelling reason for ending the benchmark interest rate cuts in the current circumstances. Still, Abir added that further reductions of the policy rate will be data-dependent.

Abir also said that the strong economic growth of 15.4% in seasonally-adjusted annualised rate (saar) terms in Q2 was good news but admitted that much of the gains were related to production of Israeli companies abroad. He noted that detailed data suggests that the economic growth figure is reasonable but not exceptional. Abir commented that the BoI will carefully monitor the effects of the new policy rate cut on the economy and the reaction of the foreign exchange market. He assured that the Oct 27 general election will play no role in the future decisions of the central bank, which will only be data-driven. He added that future central bank decisions may still be influenced by the volatility in the region.

According to the latest research department macroeconomic forecast update from July, the assumption was for two additional rate cuts in the following year to 3.00% in Q2 2027. The update is not guidance by the MPC but the forecast has likely been endorsed by the rate-setters. Abir explained that a new assumption will be published at the next update on Oct 21. He noted that the benchmark interest rate may remain around its current level if the CPI inflation stabilises or edges up in the coming period. However, he said that further cuts are possible if the CPI inflation eases further and the local currency continues to appreciate against the USD.

• Zehut party is headed by former senior ruling Likud MK Moshe Feiglin
• Coalition to focus on security, settlement, judiciary, prevention of Palestinian state
• Far-right Otzma Yehudit recently refused entering coalition with Religious Zionism

Far-right Religious Zionism has entered a pre-election coalition with the small, right-wing Zehut party of former senior ruling Likud MK Moshe Feiglin, Religious Zionism leader Bezalel Smotrich announced on Wednesday. Smotrich called on all political forces that see the right-wing as their home to join the alliance. Feiglin will run on the second spot of the joint electoral slate and additional places after the eighth spot will also be reserved for Zehut members. Smotrich said that the upcoming general election will be crucial for the nationalist and faith-based camp, as well as the whole Israeli state. He added that the main priorities of the joint electoral list will be security, settlements, the judicial system and the prevention of the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Feiglin commented that entering a pre-election coalition with Religious Zionism will prevent the loss of votes of his right-wing supporters in the Oct 27 general election. He called on all right-wing voters to support the new coalition to achieve an absolute victory and ensure the integrity of the Land of Israel. Feiglin was part of Likud's so-called Jewish Leadership faction, which was mainly composed of pro-settlement hardliners. However, he recently accused Likud leader and PM Benjamin Netanyahu of effectively establishing a Palestinian state in the Gaza Strip by accepting international post-war plans.

We note that Religious Zionism has been hovering around the Knesset entry threshold in recent polls and its potential to obtain Knesset seats has been weakened by the recently-established rightist Amcha Israel party of former army general Ofer Winter. Netanyahu earlier called on Religious Zionism to join forces with the far-right Otzma Yehudit party of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. However, Ben-Gvir has firmly refused to enter such a coalition and recently said that his decision is final.

• Car market is heading for new record high year
• Deliveries might not fully reflect rise in household demand

New car deliveries were unchanged in an annual comparison at 28,174 in August, according to data from the car importers' association quoted by local media. Deliveries have been increasing in almost all months this year and as a result, the year-to-date number has increased by 8.8% y/y in Jan-Aug. The car market is apparently heading to another record year and deliveries are set to exceed 300,000 if trends remain in place. The first two places in the ranking are occupied by Chinese brands: Jaecoo and Chery with respective market shares of 12.9% and 10.4% while former leader Toyota was ranked third accounting for 10.3% of the market. Overall, six of the 10 best-sellers are Chinese brands.

Local daily Calcalist earlier reported that a large share of the deliveries in May-June were made in the last few days of the respective months and likely reflected accumulated significant inventories of unsold cars, with the deadline for selling them at the end of June (extended due to the war). The daily says that those deliveries were most likely directed to leasing companies, dealers and the like as importers most likely wanted to free space for huge orders made recently because of the favourable forex rate. Thus, the surge in deliveries might not necessarily reflect strong demand on the part of households, in our opinion.

• Air defences destroy 10 of 13 ballistic missiles that entered Jordanian airspace
• Latest attack follows interception of eight Iranian missiles on Monday

Jordanian air defences intercepted and destroyed 10 of 13 ballistic missiles that entered the kingdom's airspace in an attack launched from Iranian territory, according to the Jordanian Armed Forces-Arab Army (JAF). The remaining three missiles fell in remote areas away from populated centres, with no injuries or fatalities reported. The latest attack comes after Jordanian air defences intercepted and destroyed eight Iranian missiles that breached the kingdom's airspace on Monday, highlighting continued security pressures on Jordan stemming from the regional conflict and the risk of repeated violations of its airspace.

The JAF said its air defence systems responded to the latest attack in accordance with established operational procedures, while specialised teams were deployed to secure locations where missile debris had fallen. Military units, surveillance systems and air defence capabilities remain on duty around the clock and at a high state of readiness to respond to potential threats. The successive interceptions underscore Jordan's increasingly active defensive role in protecting its territory and population from spillovers of the regional conflict, while repeated missile incursions continue to pose security risks despite the kingdom not being a direct party to the hostilities.

• Job creation challenges persist despite further decline in unemployment
• Female unemployment records stronger improvement, while disparities with non-Jordanians remain significant

The unemployment rate among Jordanians aged 15 and above stood at 21.0% in Q2 2026, edging down from 21.1% in the previous quarter and 21.3% in the same period a year earlier, according to data published by the Department of Statistics (DoS). The overall unemployment rate, including non-Jordanian residents, declined by 0.4pps y/y to 16.1%, extending a gradual improvement that has lowered the national rate by 1.7pps since Q2 2022. The figures point to continued progress in labour market conditions, although the marginal q/q decline among Jordanians indicates that job creation and employment absorption remain structural challenges. Persistently high unemployment, particularly among youth and women, remains one of the most significant constraints on the kingdom's economic growth, weighing on household incomes, domestic demand and the economy's ability to fully utilise its labour force.

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Moreover, disaggregated figures show a more pronounced improvement among women. Female unemployment among Jordanians declined by 2.4pps q/q and 2.5pps y/y, while the overall female unemployment rate, including all residents, fell by 5.3pps y/y to 19.9%. Male unemployment among Jordanians has also improved over the longer term, declining by 4.2pps from 22.7% in Q2 2021. Nevertheless, significant disparities remain between Jordanians and non-Jordanians: among people aged 24 and above, unemployment stood at 18.0% for Jordanians compared with 5.8% for non-Jordanians, while the overall unemployment rate among non-Jordanian residents was 8.2%. Overall, the data indicate a gradually improving labour market, but persistent differences across nationality and gender continue to highlight uneven employment opportunities.

• Index is in positive territory for second consecutive month
• New orders and output rise

The S&P Global Kuwait Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 53.6 in August from 50.8 in July. The reading is above the 50.0 neutral mark for the second consecutive month as the recovery in Kuwait's non-oil private sector gathered strength. Additionally, the improvement in the health of the non-oil private sector was only just below that seen in February, immediately before the outbreak of war in the region.

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There were expansions in output and new orders in August, prompting renewed job creation and a rise in purchasing activity unsurpassed since the survey began. Additionally, companies became more confident about the year-ahead outlook.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures strengthened, with both input costs and output prices rising more quickly than in July.

Competitive pricing, marketing activity and the provision of good quality products were central to increases in both new orders and business activity. Output rose for the second consecutive month, and at a sharp pace that was the strongest since February. New orders showed a similar pattern, with total new business supported by a renewed increase in new export orders as companies were able to secure sales from customers in neighbouring countries.

With workloads rising, non-oil companies in Kuwait added to their staffing levels in August, the first time this has been the case in six months. However, the rate of job creation was only modest and insufficient to prevent a further build-up of outstanding business given the marked increase in new orders during August.

• Kuwaiti air defences intercept incoming missiles and drones

Kuwait's armed forces said on Sep 2 that their air defences responded to Iranian missile and drone attacks. Iranian forces were targeting US military positions in Kuwait as part of a wider retaliatory campaign against American assets across the region.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iranian state media confirmed they targeted US military infrastructure. Kuwait hosts a substantial US military presence and Tehran appears to have targeted only American military infrastructure rather than Kuwait as a political or military adversary.

Tehran explicitly stated the strikes were in direct response to a renewed wave of US airstrikes that left at least 19 Iranians dead. The IRGC claimed that the strikes destroyed drones and resulted in US personnel casualties. However, neither Washington nor Kuwait City has officially verified any damage or casualty figures.

This latest barrage was not isolated to Kuwait. Iran simultaneously directed missile and drone operations against US assets in the United Arab Emirates (Al Minhad Air Base), Jordan, Bahrain, and Iraq's Kurdistan region.

Iran's latest missile and drone attacks on Kuwait mark an escalation in the conflict with the United States, bringing the Gulf countries deeper into a war they have sought to avoid. Striking American positions on Kuwaiti territory puts Iran directly at odds with Kuwait and creates risks for the country's civilian infrastructure and economy.

This is not the first time Iran has attacked Kuwait during the conflict, which began on Feb 28 when the US and Israel launched joint attacks against Iran. Iranian strikes in June hit Kuwait International Airport. Iran has also previously targeted US facilities in Kuwait.

Iran has increasingly responded to US military operations by targeting American forces across neighbouring countries. That strategy allows Tehran to impose costs on Washington without restricting its retaliation to Iranian territory.

However, the obvious larger concern is escalation. Kuwait and other Gulf countries maintain close security relationships with the US while generally seeking to avoid becoming direct participants in the US-Iran conflict. Iranian attacks make that neutrality increasingly difficult to maintain.

Kuwait has so far emphasised its right to defend its territory while its air defences intercepted incoming threats. The government has incentives to prevent the confrontation from developing into a broader conflict with Iran, though repeated attacks could force Kuwait and other Gulf countries to take a more active role in the conflict.

• Formal decision to launch mission targeted for October, with around 10 countries interested in participating
• Mission would strengthen Lebanese armed forces ahead of UNIFIL mandate expiry at end-2026

The EU is advancing plans to establish a new mission to advise and train the Lebanese armed forces, with a formal decision on its launch targeted for October. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said planning was progressing well, with around 10 countries expressing interest in participating. The mission would focus partly on border and maritime security and is intended to strengthen Lebanon's capacity to provide security independently. The initiative comes as the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which currently comprises around 7,500 personnel from nearly 50 countries, is scheduled to expire on December 31, 2026.

The EU has stressed that the planned mission would not replace UNIFIL, although its launch would contribute to broader efforts to strengthen Lebanon's security architecture ahead of the peacekeeping force's withdrawal. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has argued that an international peacekeeping presence will remain necessary after UNIFIL's mandate expires, while France and Italy have previously proposed establishing a multinational coalition to succeed the U.N. force. Strengthening the Lebanese armed forces is particularly important given persistent security risks in the south, where repeated conflicts between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have challenged the state's ability to exercise effective security control. We remind that the latest conflict escalated after Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel on March 2, triggering a large-scale Israeli bombing campaign and ground invasion. More than 4,300 people have been killed, although violence has subsequently declined following a U.S.-Iran agreement and a Washington-sponsored framework agreement between Lebanon and Israel. Against this backdrop, greater international support for the Lebanese armed forces could become increasingly important as the country assumes greater responsibility for border and maritime security following the end of UNIFIL's mandate.

• Casablanca-listed companies' H1 revenue rises 10.8% y/y to MAD 192.4bn
• Growth accelerates to 15% y/y in Q2, but mining accounts for around 40% of the H1 increase

Aggregate revenue of companies listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange rose 10.8% y/y to MAD 192.4bn in H1, with growth accelerating from 7.3% y/y in Q1 to 15% y/y in Q2, according to brokerage house MSIN compilation of data. The figures point to stronger corporate activity overall but the improvement was heavily concentrated in mining, insurance and oil and gas. Mining was the largest driver, with sector revenue surging 149.8% y/y to MAD 12.62bn, adding about MAD 7.6bn to the overall MAD 18.8bn increase in listed company revenue. Managem accounted for almost all of this gain, with revenue rising 166% y/y to MAD 11.76bn, reflecting higher metals prices as well as increased production. Based on these figures but excluding the exceptional mining contribution, listed company revenue growth would be around 6.7% y/y, indicating still solid underlying corporate growth. Insurance was the second largest contributor as revenue increased 20.8% y/y to MAD 18.3bn, while oil and gas revenue rose 19.7% y/y to MAD 14.65bn. Distribution revenue increased 16.1% y/y, healthcare 19.6% y/y and IT services 15.2% y/y, suggesting that the improvement was not confined entirely to commodities.

• Nador West Med completes MAD 2.2bn private bond placement as the new port approaches start-up
• Marsa Maroc invested MAD 3.4bn in H1, up 166% y/y, largely in its Nador West Med terminals

Nador West Med successfully completed a MAD 2.2bn ordinary bond issue through a private placement, adding financing as the strategic Mediterranean port enters the final stage before commercial operations. The first phase is scheduled to start progressively in Q4 with the eastern container terminal, followed from 2027 by the Ro-Ro, western container, general cargo, energy and solid-bulk terminals. The bond was placed with institutional investors by a consortium including Valoris, Capital Trust and CIH Bank but detailed pricing and maturity were not disclosed.

The port operator Marsa Maroc reported investment spending of MAD 3.4bn in H1 2026, compared with MAD 1.3bn a year earlier, reflecting mainly the Nador West Med project needs, while its revenue rose 13% y/y to MAD 3.21bn and traffic increased 3% y/y to 34.5mn tonnes.

In December 2025, the government outlined plans to expand Morocco's maritime infrastructure with two major new deepwater ports. Nador West Med on the Mediterranean is due to begin operations in Q4 2026 and will initially offer around 800 hectares of industrial space, with scope to expand to 5,000 hectares. The port is also planned to host Morocco's first LNG import terminal, using a floating storage and regasification unit and pipelines connecting it with the national gas network and industrial centres. However, the government suspended the LNG and pipeline tenders in February and, as of end-August, the project was still being recalibrated and had not been relaunched.

The country is also building a USD 1bn port on the Atlantic, in Dakhla. The port is scheduled to become operational in 2028 and will be the country's deepest at 23 metres. The site will be encircled by 1,600 hectares designated for industry and a further 5,200 hectares of farmland that will rely on desalinated water for irrigation. Both ports are designed to support future green-hydrogen exports and strengthen Morocco's role as a trade and energy hub in Africa. A potential new port at Tan-Tan is also under study with hydrogen investors.

• SAMA closely follows Fed's monetary policy, but Iran War complicates US monetary policy
• Interbank liquidity is likely to remain tight over short term because of strong lending activity

The average three-month Saudi Arabian Interbank Offered Rate (SAIBOR) rose for the first time in four months in July, reaching 4.84% from 4.74% in June, according to figures released by the central bank (SAMA). We attribute the increase to the renewed attacks in the Gulf and the disruption to oil exports via the Bab el Mandeb in the Red Sea. We think that the 3M SAIBOR will increase further in August as the ongoing Middle East crisis threatens Saudi sea export routes. Further, as bank lending activity exceeds the increase in bank deposits, we think that domestic liquidity will remain tight in 2026, even if the Middle East crisis is resolved.

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SAMA cut the interest rates by a cumulative 75bps in 2025 as the Saudi central bank closely follows Fed's policy because of the currency peg. However, the Middle East crisis has put on hold any further rate cuts in the US and SAMA has maintained its stance even though Saudi inflation has been below that of the US in the past three years. It should be noted that the higher interest rates did not cool down investment or consumption in the kingdom.

• Foreign assets rise robustly m/m, foreign liabilities decline m/m across board
• Foreign assets now account for 8.5% of banks' total assets and for 14.1% of total deposits

The deficit in banks' net foreign assets narrowed for second month in a row in July, to SAR 210.8bn (USD 56.2bn) as of end-month from a SAR 233.7bn deficit a month earlier, according to figures released by the central bank (SAMA). The NFA deficit fell because of higher foreign assets, which in turn reflects growing claims on foreign banks, coupled with a strong drop in foreign liabilities. In fact, the drop in foreign liabilities was broad-based, with strong declines recorded in foreign liabilities to foreign banks and branches abroad. We note that credit growth in Saudi Arabia has outpaced the growth in deposits for a second year in a row, leading to tighter liquidity and encouraging the commercial banks to look for additional funds from foreign banks, leading in general to growing external liabilities. Meanwhile, the net foreign assets of SAMA remain sizeable, recording a net asset position of around USD 466bn and accounting for about 35% of GDP.

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Banks' foreign assets are equal to 8.5% of banks' total assets and 14.1% of their total deposits. NFAs peaked in Apr 2023 and have been trending down since then on the back of rising foreign liabilities, especially to other creditors and foreign banks. We think overall NFAs will remain in a deficit position in 2026, and it seems that even high oil prices could not help ease the pressure in this account.

• Large remittance outflows are structural feature of kingdom's Current Account
• Remittance outflows fall by 2.4% y/y in Jan-Jul
• Slowdown in giga-projects is likely to contain remittance outflows in 2026

Personal transfer payments rose for the second month in a row in July, by 0.9% m/m to USD 5.5bn following a sharp increase of 7.6% m/m in the preceding month, according to figures released by SAMA. Remittances from expats living in Saudi Arabia account for two thirds of the payments, the rest are payments made by Saudi nationals. We note that expat workers rushed to send funds to their families in March after the Iran War broke out and payment outflows surged to an all-time high of USD 5.9bn. As the initial shock of the war faded, however, business and consumer confidence recovered and expat money transfers moderated. However, we think the m/m increase in July reflects the renewed hostilities in the Gulf and increased Houthi activities in the Red Sea, and we think remittances will increase even further in August.

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The large remittance outflows are a structural feature of Saudi Arabia's Current Account as the country relies heavily on foreign workers, especially in the construction sector. Saudi Arabia scaled down many of the giga-projects due to weaker fiscal revenues, and while the Iran war boosted oil revenues in Q2, we do not expect a restart of the stalled giga-projects soon. Thus, we think that remittance outflows will moderate this year. Further, the government has deployed measures to encourage Saudi employment and reduce the reliance on foreign workers, so we expect a gradual moderation in foreign employment in the coming years.

Remittance outflows have already slowed this year, falling 2.4% y/y to USD 36.8bn in Jan-Jul. We note that remittance outflows rose by a strong 11% y/y to USD 62.9bn in 2025, which came on top of the 13% y/y growth recorded in 2024. Remittance outflows accounted for about 5% of GDP and 14% of SAMA's foreign reserves last year. Personal transfer payments account for about 45% of Saudi banks' sales of hard currency for specific purposes, with the remaining sales allocated to import financing (around 25%) and foreign contractors (around 30%). The share of personal transfer payments in the total sales of hard currency (including third parties such as foreign banks and other Saudi customers), however, is less than 10%.

Saudi construction activity surges despite PIF taking a back seat (AGBI)

Saudi-UAE payment delays demand costly workarounds (AGBI)

Saudi Arabia raises USD 3bn with two-tranche sukuk (AGBI)

Riyadh condemns deadly Iranian strike on Saudi tanker (Arab News)

Saudi-Chinese consortium wins USD 348mn sewage plants maintenance deal (Zawya)

• Bank to sell entire 50% stake to Amex Middle East for SAR 1.43bn, plus additional deferred consideration
• Transaction expected to generate SAR 792.4mn gain and strengthen SAIB's financial position

The Saudi Investment Bank (SAIB) has agreed to sell its entire 50% stake in American Express Saudi Arabia (AESA) to Amex Middle East for SAR 1.43bn (USD 381.4mn) in cash, subject to regulatory approvals. The transaction will end SAIB's participation in the joint venture and leave Amex Middle East, which currently owns the remaining 50%, as the sole shareholder following completion. SAIB will also receive additional deferred consideration reflecting its share of AESA's distributable profits generated between the signing of the agreement and completion of the share transfer.

The divestment is expected to generate a gain of SAR 792.4mn for SAIB, based on the investment's book value of SAR 637.7mn as of end-November 2025. The bank said proceeds from the transaction will be used to support and strengthen its financial position in line with its strategic direction. AESA has recorded solid earnings growth in recent years, with net profit rising to SAR 152.0mn in 2025 from SAR 88.2mn in 2023, while revenue increased to SAR 644.3mn from SAR 507.4mn over the same period. The transaction therefore represents a sizeable capital realisation for SAIB while consolidating full ownership of the Saudi payments business under Amex Middle East.

• Producer chamber sees output dropping from record 500,000 tonnes in 2025/26
• Current-season exports reached 368,000 tonnes in nine months, up 55.3% y/y
• Lower 2026/27 volumes could be partly offset by higher international prices

Tunisia's olive oil production could fall around 40% y/y to 300,000 tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing season from an estimated record 500,000 tonnes this year, according to Najah Saidi Hamed, head of the National Chamber of Olive Producers who spoke to Mosaique FM. The decline would reverse much of this season's exceptional increase and take production below the roughly 340,000 tonnes recorded in 2024/25.

Saidi Hamed attributed the expected decline mainly to alternate bearing, as olive trees typically produce a weaker crop following a particularly strong season. The forecast remains preliminary, with harvesting due to start in November. A smaller crop would weigh on export volumes following a very strong 2025/26 season. Tunisia exported 368,000 tonnes of olive oil in the first nine months of the current campaign, up 55.3% y/y through July, according to official ONAGRI data. Meanwhile, export receipts increased 44.4% y/y to TND 4.61bn. Saidi Hamed said tighter supply and higher international prices could partly compensate for lower volumes next season, although the current data show export revenues rising more slowly than volumes.

• Prime minister reportedly held meetings with ministers ahead of new govt formation in October
• Prosperity Party is expected to establish new government following June election victory
• Extended public absence has intensified speculation over Abiy's health

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is reportedly preparing to form a new government in October, according to privately owned Borkena, amid growing public speculation over his health following several weeks without a public appearance. A minister reportedly told Borkena that Abiy held meetings with cabinet ministers on 31 Aug and state ministers on 1 Sep to discuss the formation of a new government expected in October. The Prosperity Party is expected to form the new administration on 5 October. The reported preparations follow the ruling party's landslide victory in the June general election, providing Abiy with a renewed political mandate.

However, the prime minister's reported three-week absence from public view has generated growing discussion on social media, particularly given his previously frequent appearances on state media and official platforms. No independent confirmation of any health problem was provided in the report. The formation of a new government could provide an indication of Addis Ababa's policy priorities for the next phase of economic reforms, particularly as Ethiopia continues its transition towards a more market-oriented exchange-rate and monetary framework while managing foreign-exchange shortages and debt restructuring. At this stage, the health speculation remains unverified, while the reported cabinet consultations suggest that government preparations are continuing.

'Presidents can't have unfettered powers' - Sophia Akuffo (Joy FM)

Mahama Ayariga pushes for unified Christian front to revive National Cathedral project (Joy FM)

Roads Minister threatens to terminate Techiman-Nkonsia-Wenchi road contract (Joy FM)

Conflicting figures raise fresh questions over credibility of SIGA Report on SOEs, says Prof Boadi (Joy FM)

IEA: US$1.7bn DGPP loss sits on BoG books, not GoldBod (Citi Newsroom)

Ghana records 1,818 online fraud cases in seven months - CSA (Citi Newsroom)

President Mahama dissolves boards of BOST, VALCO, CBG, GNPC, NSA and five others (Starr FM)

President Mahama to soon reshuffle CEOs of State-Owned Enterprises - Callistus Mahama hints (Class FM)

• SOEs with dissolved boards include Prestea Sankofa Gold, oil storage and transport company BOST
• Some of SOEs, including GNPC and BOST, posted improved performance in 2025
• Presidential secretary suggests CEO reshuffle is next, noting Mahama wants to maintain discipline and accountability

President John Mahama dissolved the governing boards of nine state companies and institutions with immediate effect, the presidency said. These include the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC), Prestea Sankofa Gold, the Bulk Oil Storage and Transportation Company (BOST), the Volta Aluminium Company (VALCO), Consolidated Bank Ghana (CBG), Ghana Post Company, the Road Maintenance Trust Fund, TDC Ghana, and the National Sports Authority (NSA).

The presidency did not specify the reasons for the dissolution, but presidential secretary Callistus Mahama issued a subsequent notice saying that the recent ministerial changes, the dissolution of boards and impending CEO reshuffle reflected President Mahama's "determination to strengthen institutional leadership, enhance coordination and ensure that every appointee remains fully aligned with the government's policies and priorities." He also reminded ministers that Mahama was determined to maintain discipline, accountability and effective leadership across all sectors of government, adding that "conduct that undermines governmental cohesion, institutional authority or the effective implementation of government policy will not be tolerated."

The board dissolution comes amid intensified scrutiny and debate about SOE performance following the recent release of the 2025 report of the State Interest and Governance Authority (SIGA). The report read that SOEs posted a consolidated net profit of GHS 19.8bn in 2025, marking strong improvement from a loss of GHS 2.3bn in 2024 while total revenues rose by 28.1% y/y to GHS 137.6bn. The report attributed the improved results to strong performance in agriculture, manufacturing and infrastructure, higher forex earnings and lower finance costs. However, some critics have raised questions about the credibility of some figures, while others have pointed to increased liabilities of some entities. In any case, some of the SOEs whose boards were dissolved, such as GNPC and BOST, were among those with improved results, so the board dissolution appears to be based more on political than purely economic motives.

• Non-food inflation accelerates to 6.8% y/y, driving the uptick, while food inflation eases to 3.0% y/y
• Housing and utilities become the largest inflation driver, accounting for 29.4% of the total

Consumer inflation accelerated to 5.0% y/y in August from 4.6% y/y in July, according to the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), although prices fell 1.0% m/m, the sharpest monthly decline so far this year. Inflation remains well below the 11.5% y/y recorded in August 2025, indicating that the increase in the annual rate largely reflected base effects rather than renewed broad-based price pressure.

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While the full breakdown has not yet been published by the GSS, the composition points to firmer non-food inflation. Food inflation eased to 3.0% y/y from 3.1% y/y in July, while non-food inflation increased to 6.8% y/y from 6.1% y/y in July. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels accounted for 29.4% of overall inflation, narrowly overtaking food and non-alcoholic beverages at 29.1%, suggesting that utilities and other non-food costs are now the main source of inflation pressure.

• Officials of Gbagbo's PPA-CI met with reps of FPI, MGC and COJEP
• They discussed potentially uniting around one proposal for future electoral body
• Former first lady proposes new electoral council to replace dissolved CEI as opposed to govt plan for three new bodies

Several opposition parties met this week at the headquarters of the Party of African Peoples-Ivory Coast (PPA-CI) of former president Laurent Gbagbo to discuss potentially unifying their positions on the future electoral body. The participants in the meeting included officials of PPA-CI, as well as the Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) of Pascal Affi N'Guessan, the Movement for Change (MGC) of Simone Ehivet Gbagbo, the Democratic and Socialist Party of Côte d'Ivoire (ADCI) of Assalé Tiemoko, and the Citizens' Movement for Progress and Popular Unity (COJEP) of Charles Ble Goude.

The purpose was to harmonize their positions and include them in a single document to submit to the government which dissolved the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) in May and proposed its replacement with three new bodies. Simone Ehivet Gbagbo has announced a different proposal - to set up a High Electoral Council that will have no representatives of political parties or the government and to secure the institution's financial autonomy in order to guarantee its independence. It is yet to see whether other opposition parties will support it or come up with a different idea. It is worth noting that the main opposition party, PDCI, did not take part in the meeting.

We recall that the government's planned reforms of the electoral system, announced in June, include replacing the CEI with three new bodies - one responsible for the logistical organization of the elections, another dedicated to the counting and compilation of votes, and a third tasked with the supervision and control of the entire electoral process. The changes aim to guarantee greater rigor in the organization of elections, ensure the transparency and reliability of vote counting, strengthen the traceability of the minutes from the polling stations to the centres for centralizing the results, and increase transparency in their proclamation.

PM Beugre Mambe said that the government also considers introducing modern technology in voter registration and data verification, as well as geolocation of polling stations, training of electoral agents, information transmission, and the dissemination of results, but noted it would be done safely and with legal safeguards. He, however, did not provide details on how the new electoral bodies will be established, how many members they will have and who will be represented in their composition, but it was announced that a detailed reform plan would be presented soon. Some opposition representatives commented after the meeting that they will have to see all details and the procedures around the establishment of the new bodies to make a final decision.

• New 15-year facility would finance construction and completion of 33 stadiums
• Loan follows KES 44.8bn Talanta bond backed by future Sports Fund revenues
• Government increasingly securitising earmarked levies to finance infrastructure

Kenya plans to raise KES 38.7bn through a new loan secured against future Sports, Arts and Social Development Fund revenues to finance the construction and completion of 33 stadiums across the country, according to a report by the local Business Daily. The fund is recruiting a transaction adviser and lead arranger and wants the proposed 15-year facility arranged within 60 days of the award.

The facility would be the second major securitisation against Sports Fund revenues after the KES 44.8bn Talanta bond issued in July 2025 to finance the 60,000-seat Raila Odinga Stadium. The fund, financed mainly by betting taxes and levies, is projected to collect around KES 2.07bn per month and will spend KES 6.5bn servicing the Talanta bond in FY2026/27.

The new borrowing would finance projects across more than 20 counties, including stadium construction and upgrades in Mombasa, Kisumu, Nakuru and Eldoret. Kenya is also upgrading the Kasarani and Nyayo stadiums ahead of the Africa Cup of Nations, which it will co-host with Tanzania and Uganda in June 2027.

The plan extends the government's growing use of future earmarked revenues to fund infrastructure as conventional borrowing space remains constrained by public debt of some KES 13tn. Similar structures include KES 175bn already raised against the Road Maintenance Levy Fund, plans for another KES 125bn roads bond, and proposed borrowing against Railway Development Levy revenues to finance the Naivasha-Malaba extension of the standard gauge railway.

• PMI falls to 49.7 from 51.3 in July, slipping back below 50-point threshold
• Output contracts for sixth month despite third consecutive rise in new orders
• Input price inflation eases, but wage pressures accelerate sharply

Kenya's private sector returned to contraction in August, with the Stanbic Bank PMI falling to 49.7 from 51.3 in July, when it had moved above the 50-point threshold for the first time in five months. Firms reported that elevated input costs, tight liquidity and shortages of key materials constrained their ability to increase production despite improving demand.

Output declined for a sixth consecutive month and at a faster pace than in July, while purchasing activity fell for a fourth month and at the sharpest rate in just over a year. By contrast, new orders increased for a third successive month, although more slowly than in July. The divergence contributed to a further accumulation of backlogs and firms increased employment for a third consecutive month.

Price pressures moderated but remained elevated. Input cost inflation eased to its lowest since April, despite continued increases in fuel and transport costs and a historically sharp rise in wages. Firms continued to raise selling prices, although at the slowest pace in four months. Business expectations improved, with confidence in output over the coming year reaching its highest since February 2023 amid planned investment in capacity, technology and product diversification.

• Accepts KES 47.7bn against KES 60bn offered in September auction
• Investors bid KES 68.2bn, but central bank rejects nearly 30% of bids

CBK rejected KES 20.4bn in bids in its September Treasury bond auction as some investors sought higher yields, accepting KES 47.7bn from total bids of KES 68.2bn. The government had offered KES 60bn through reopened 15- and 30-year bonds, resulting in an overall performance rate of 113.7%.

Demand was concentrated in the 15-year bond, which has 7.9 years remaining to maturity and attracted KES 57.1bn in bids. CBK accepted KES 41.1bn at a weighted average yield of 12.76%, below the 12.83% sought by investors. The 30-year paper, with 14.4 years remaining, attracted only KES 11.1bn, of which KES 6.6bn was accepted at 13.69%, compared with an average bid yield of 13.80%.

• IEBC flags disinformation, political violence and weak public trust
• Police have started phased security preparations ahead of Aug 2027 vote
• Disputed election technology tender adds to concerns over poll credibility

Kenya's electoral and security agencies have warned of mounting risks ahead of the August 2027 general election, including political violence, hate speech, disinformation and declining public trust in electoral institutions, according to local news reports. IEBC Chairman Erastus Ethekon said the commission could not deliver credible elections alone and would need close cooperation with security agencies, the Judiciary and other stakeholders, while insisting it would defend its constitutional independence.

The warnings came at a high-level election security forum involving the IEBC, police, prosecutors, Judiciary and National Cohesion and Integration Commission. The police said they had begun implementing a phased election security roadmap, while prosecutors highlighted difficulties in establishing links between perpetrators of political violence and those financing or organising them. Recent attacks by groups of suspected political goons have been reported at opposition rallies in several counties.

Concerns over electoral preparedness have intensified amid allegations over the procurement of a new integrated election management system. A bidder has challenged the tender, alleging that its requirements favour South Korea's Miru Systems, while former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua has accused the IEBC of planning to use the new system to influence the election. Ethekon rejected what he described as unsubstantiated allegations that could undermine confidence in the electoral process.

The election is scheduled for Aug 10, 2027. The IEBC has already published its electoral timetable, while preparations come against an increasingly competitive political environment and concerns over election-related violence.

Intrigues in KQ investor hunt as Kamal departs (Business Daily)

Blow to Uber, Bolt drivers as court blocks 18pc commission cap (Business Daily)

Ruto's new Mt Kenya comeback offensive: Can he win it back? (Nation)

Long rains assessment: Good on paper, uneven on the ground (Nation)

Kenyan households grapple with shortages, high cost of food (The Standard)

El Nino puts 1.5m Kenyans at risk of humanitarian, economic shocks (The Standard)

How Kenya risks a repeat of the 2007 post-election violence (The Standard)

Flower industry sounds alarm as aviation strike backlog bites (The Star)

Microinsurance posts fastest premium growth to reach Ksh 2.17B (Kenya Broadcasting Corporation)

Cooperatives commissioner gazettes liquidation of Kuscco (capitalfm.africa)

IG Kanja denies police role in abduction of Standard Group editor Alex Kiprotich, orders probe (Citizen)

Unit Behind Standard Group Editor Abduction Linked to Cabinet Secretary (Kenyans.co.ke)

Concern for Farmers as Kenya Met Warns of Drought Conditions in Several Counties (Kenyans.co.ke)

• AfDB and Standard Bank to provide USD 40mn and USD 30mn, respectively, for 10 locomotives and 420 wagons
• CFM to make semi-annual repayments of about USD 3.89mn over an estimated 18 years
• Investment comes as CFM seeks to capture logistics opportunities from Mozambique's LNG sector

Mozambique's ports and railways operator CFM plans to invest USD 70mn in 10 locomotives and 420 wagons to increase rail freight capacity, with the financing already approved by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Standard Bank South Africa. The AfDB will provide USD 40mn, while Standard Bank will provide the remaining USD 30mn. CFM is expected to make semi-annual repayments of about USD 3.89mn over approximately 18 years.

The rolling-stock procurement forms part of CFM's wider infrastructure modernisation programme, including the duplication and upgrading of the Ressano Garcia line, railway telecommunications systems and rehabilitation of port infrastructure at Nacala and Beira. CFM's executed investment reached MZN 3.25bn in 2025, equivalent to about EUR 50.4mn and 58% of the approved budget, while ongoing investments stood at MZN 6.47bn.

We note that expanding rolling stock should strengthen Mozambique's ability to move bulk commodities between its ports and regional markets, particularly along the strategically important Maputo corridor. The AfDB previously identified the Ressano Garcia line as CFM's main rail corridor, accounting for more than 90% of rail traffic volume. Increased capacity could therefore improve corridor competitiveness, reduce pressure on road transport and support regional trade. CFM's growing focus on logistics linked to the Rovuma Basin LNG developments could further create opportunities for rail, port and associated logistics services.

• PMI rises from 51.4 in July to 51.9, its joint-highest reading since June 2022
• Output and new business accelerate as hiring and purchasing rebound
• Business confidence reaches 51-month high as LNG optimism supports recovery

Mozambique's private-sector conditions strengthened further in August, with the Standard Bank/S&P Global PMI rising from 51.4 in July to 51.9, its joint-highest reading since June 2022 and signaling the strongest improvement in business conditions in more than four years. The latest increase was supported by solid expansions in output and new business, alongside stronger purchasing activity and a renewed rise in employment as firms responded to stronger sales and improving business sentiment. At the same time, input-cost inflation eased from July's more than four-year high, although selling price inflation remained elevated as firms continued to protect margins.

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Business activity and new orders both accelerated during August, with output recording its quickest increase for more than three years and new business expanding at its fastest pace since July 2023 as firms benefited from new client wins, greater work requests and improving market conditions. Construction led growth in both output and new orders, while manufacturing was the only sector to record lower sales than in July. The stronger demand environment also prompted a renewed increase in employment, with job numbers rising at the fastest rate since February, while purchasing activity and input inventories increased at their strongest rates since mid-2022 as supplier delivery times improved and supply disruptions eased.

Business confidence strengthened further in August, with over 61% of surveyed firms expecting output to improve over the next 12 months compared with less than 1% anticipating a decline, marking the highest degree of optimism since May 2022. Standard Bank Chief Economist Fáusio Mussá said the PMI's rise to 51.9 reflected improvements across most sub-indices and that stronger business sentiment was largely linked to progress on Mozambique's LNG projects, which should support aggregate demand over the next year. He noted that improving foreign exchange supply, supported by coal exports and LNG-related foreign direct investment, was helping counter the impact of the Mozal shutdown, although higher fuel import bills continued to point to substantial FX supply-demand imbalances. Mussá added that GDP growth accelerated to 1.7% y/y in Q2:26 from 0.1% y/y in Q1:26, with the PMI suggesting that growth had bottomed and a recovery was underway, although fiscal challenges and FX supply-demand imbalances led Standard Bank to retain its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 0.7% y/y.

• FinMin Carla Loveira presented macroeconomic and fiscal reform priorities to US Treasury
• GDP growth accelerated to 1.7% y/y in Q2 from 0.1% in Q1, but investment remained weak

Mozambique's Finance Minister Carla Loveira met US Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary for Africa and the Middle East Eric Meyer on Aug 28 to discuss the country's macroeconomic and fiscal position, reform priorities and opportunities to strengthen bilateral cooperation. Loveira highlighted the recovery following a 0.2% contraction in 2025, when GDP expanded 5.1% y/y in Q4. The recovery strengthened in Q2 2026, with GDP growth accelerating to 1.7% y/y from 0.1% in Q1, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE). Growth was supported by stronger domestic demand and services, with final consumption increasing 11.6% y/y and exports rising 5.2%. Services expanded 2.1%, while agriculture and fishing grew 3.4% and mining 1.9%.

We note that stronger US engagement could support Mozambique's efforts to restore fiscal credibility and implement structural reforms, but the recovery remained fragile. Gross fixed capital formation contracted 21.2% y/y, pointing to continued weakness in investment, while manufacturing declined 11.2%. Macroeconomic pressures also persisted. Inflation stood at 7.48% y/y in July, while the MIMO rate was held at 9.25%. The IMF has warned that continued reliance on domestic financing could increase pressure on the financial system and weigh on non-mining activity. Despite the Q2 improvement, the World Bank's 0.9% and IMF's 0.5% growth forecasts for 2026 suggest a weak full-year recovery.

• Phase II to raise Beira-Feruka pipeline capacity from 3mn to 5mn m³/year by end-2027
• Two new pumping stations to strengthen fuel supply to Zimbabwe and wider SADC hinterland
• Potential future extension towards Zambia's Copperbelt could deepen regional energy integration

Mozambique and Zimbabwe launched Phase II of the Companhia do Pipeline Moçambique-Zimbabwe (CPMZ) expansion, with two new pumping stations in Nhamatanda and Messica expected to raise the Beira-Feruka pipeline's annual fuel-transport capacity from 3mn to 5mn m³ by end-2027. The expansion represents a 67% increase and will be coordinated with the modernisation of Zimbabwe's PetroZim Line.

The project should strengthen the Beira Corridor as a fuel-supply route for Zimbabwe while improving access to petroleum products for landlocked markets including Zambia, Malawi, Botswana and the DRC. CPMZ said the second phase will reinforce the corridor's role as a strategic logistics route and improve its capacity to respond to rising regional fuel demand.

We note that the expansion could have wider economic benefits by reducing supply bottlenecks and strengthening the corridor's competitiveness against alternative fuel-import routes. The longer-term possibility of replacing the existing pipeline with a larger-diameter line, alongside a potential extension towards Zambia's Copperbelt, could further increase Beira's strategic importance for regional energy security and trade.

• Navalha plans talks with banks over foreign-currency shortages despite USD 3.4bn reserves
• President Chapo urges monetary policy to translate stability into productive financing
• Domestic borrowing pressures raise concerns over private-sector credit availability

New Bank of Mozambique Governor Felisberto Dinis Navalha said he would engage commercial banks to identify the causes of persistent foreign-currency shortages and develop measures to improve FX availability for businesses. Navalha said the shortages persisted despite net international reserves of USD 3.4bn in June, down from a record USD 4.3bn in February. He said the central bank would first verify available data and consult banks, as commercial institutions play a key role in the foreign-exchange market.

The issue has become increasingly important for businesses facing difficulties financing imports and fulfilling contracts. The Confederation of Economic Associations has described the situation as an economic emergency, highlighting the disconnect between sizeable reserve buffers and limited access to FX at commercial-bank level.

Credit constraints remain significant

President Daniel Chapo also urged the new Governor to ensure that macroeconomic stability translates into greater financing for agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, logistics and SMEs. He warned that heavy government borrowing from the domestic market could raise interest rates and crowd out private-sector credit.

The latest banking data underline the challenge. Commercial banks' credit to the economy stood at MZN 283.6bn in June, up only 1.4% y/y, despite deposits reaching MZN 811.0bn. Meanwhile, net credit to government stood at MZN 203.5bn, while government securities remained a major component of bank assets. The BoM also kept the MIMO policy rate at 9.25% in July, with the prime lending rate at 15.50%.

The new Governor therefore faces a dual challenge, namely improving FX availability while preserving reserve adequacy and strengthening financial intermediation without reigniting inflation or increasing financial-stability risks. With inflation at 7.48% in July and private-sector credit growing only 1.4% y/y, progress on these fronts will be central to translating monetary stability into broader economic activity.

• Audit of domestic arrears to be approved this week, payments to start by year-end
• Draft 2027 budget to reach cabinet by Sep 30

The finance ministry should prepare a supplementary 2026 budget to parliament as soon as possible to incorporate measures agreed under the new USD 2.2bn IMF staff-level deal, PM Ahmadou Lo said in the cabinet meeting on Sep 2. He also ordered the finance ministry to finalise the draft 2027 budget for cabinet approval by Sep 30.

The government is also moving to address domestic arrears, with the finance ministry instructed to submit the results of an audit to President Faye for approval this week. Payments are expected to begin before end-2026, with claims held by micro, small and medium-sized enterprises prioritised. The government will also accelerate the introduction of targeted subsidies, while payments under the national family security programme are to be done by end-September.

The measures follow the Sep 1 staff-level agreement with the IMF on a 36-month ECF programme worth about USD 2.2bn and the simultaneous launch of Senegal's Debt Treatment Plan. The government intends to seek treatment of external debt while excluding XOF-denominated obligations, as it seeks to reduce debt-service and refinancing pressures. The cabinet described the IMF agreement and debt-treatment plan as central to the government's efforts to restore public finances.

• KfW to provide EUR 200mn and AFD EUR 100mn in concessional loans
• Funding targets electricity, water and sanitation, and waste services in eight metros

Germany and France have committed EUR 300mn (ZAR 5.6bn) in concessional financing to support the Metro Trading Services Reform (MTSR) programme, the Treasury said in a statement on Wednesday (Sep 2). The programme covers South Africa's eight metropolitan municipalities, serving more than 22mn people, and aims to improve the financial and operational performance of electricity, water and sanitation, and solid-waste services, while ensuring revenues are reinvested in infrastructure.

The financing comprises EUR 200mn from KfW and EUR 100mn from AFD and forms part of Germany and France's Just Energy Transition support, with the reforms intended to help unlock further public and private investment and modernise municipal electricity networks. KfW has separately provided EUR 350mn in concessional loans to Johannesburg and Cape Town over the past two years for grid upgrades and renewable energy integration.

The 2026 Budget allocated ZAR 27.7bn over the medium term to the performance-based Metro Trading Services Reform, while foreign borrowing was set at ZAR 53.7bn in 2026/27.

• Private sector PMI rises marginally to 50.5 in August but current expansion cycle is muted
• New orders expand for first time in four months while output rises for second month
• Only drag is employment which falls for first time in seven months as input cost pressures pick up

The S&P Global private sector PMI edged up to 50.5 in August from 50.3 in July, remaining only marginally above the neutral 50-point level and signalling a modest improvement in operating conditions midway through Q3. The improvement was driven by a return to growth in new orders, while employment was the only component weighing on the headline index. Demand conditions improved somewhat as the survey pointed to new orders rising for the first time in four months, although only marginally. Firms reported successful tenders and improving customer finances but export sales were broadly unchanged after expanding in June and July. Output increased for a second consecutive month, while purchasing activity rose at its fastest pace since March.

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However, this improvement did not prevent the decline in employment and it fell for the first time in seven months, reflecting voluntary departures and cost-driven staff reductions, while backlogs of work remained broadly stable, pointing to limited capacity pressure. Input price inflation accelerated for the first time since May, driven by higher fuel costs and supplier prices amid continued disruption in the Middle East, although it remained well below the May peak. Selling price inflation also picked up slightly from July but remained below its historical average.

Overall, the August survey points to some stabilisation in private sector demand but growth momentum is still only weak. Business expectations improved, with around 30% of firms expecting activity to rise over the coming year and only 2% anticipating a decline, although S&P Global cautioned that stronger growth remains dependent on a broader recovery in domestic and external conditions.

• Index edges down to 38 in Q3 from 39 in Q2, its lowest since Q3 2024
• Confidence falls in four of five sectors, led by 11-point drop among new vehicle dealers
• Manufacturing confidence slips to 27 as weak domestic and export demand leaves significant spare capacity

The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index edged down by one point to 38 in Q3 from 39 in Q2, broadly stabilising at a weak level. The reading was the lowest in two years and left confidence below its long-term average of around 40, suggesting that the sharp 8-point deterioration recorded in Q2 has not deepened, but has also not been reversed.

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The limited movement in the headline index masked continued weakness across most sectors, with confidence declining in four of the five subcomponents. The biggest fall was among new vehicle dealers, where confidence dropped 11 points to 38 as inventories ran ahead of demand. Although new vehicle sales improved, this was largely offset by weaker second-hand vehicle sales.

Manufacturing remained particularly subdued, with confidence dropping to 27 from 31. BER attributed the deterioration to persistently weak domestic demand and weaker export volumes amid slower global growth. Capacity utilisation also declined further, indicating that manufacturers continue to operate with substantial spare capacity and little immediate pressure to expand investment.

The survey was conducted in the second half of August, when some of the acute pressures associated with the earlier Middle East oil shock had begun to ease, including input cost pressures. However, BER said the improvement in the cost environment had yet to translate into a broader recovery in demand or activity. It noted that the survey suggests the economy has absorbed much of the Q2 shock but remains short of the demand momentum needed to generate stronger investment and employment growth.

• Corridor to develop digital marketplace, commodity exchange and interoperable cross-border payments
• Project aims to support increase in intra-African trade from about USD 200bn to USD 500bn and beyond
• USD 5.17bn valuation is not a disclosed financing commitment, with funding and rollout details yet to be provided

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat and Quest Ghana Limited signed a definitive joint venture agreement to establish the AfCFTA Digital Trade Corridor, aimed at strengthening digital infrastructure for intra-African commerce. Signed in Accra on Aug 31, the venture will develop a digital marketplace, African Minerals and Commodities Exchange, interoperable cross-border payment system, logistics infrastructure, and digital trading, tracking and settlement services for minerals and commodities. Seychelles will provide sovereign support and host the joint venture's headquarters in Victoria.

The initiative comes as African policymakers seek to increase intra-African trade from about USD 200bn to USD 500bn and beyond, while addressing fragmented payment infrastructure that raises transaction costs. AfCFTA says payments for intra-African trade cost more than USD 5bn annually. The proposed corridor would support businesses, including micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, by improving payment interoperability and trade settlement, while national central banks would retain responsibility for exchange-rate determination. The USD 5.17bn figure represents Quest Ghana's valuation of the project rather than a confirmed financing commitment, and the parties have yet to disclose the amount of capital committed, ownership structure or full rollout timetable.

• Company signs binding deal for Bahati and Buyaga projects
• Projects include four historical mines which produced almost 320 tonnes of wolfram in the past
• Acquisition to be funded with USD 1.6mn share placement

Australia's Blaze Minerals said it had signed an agreement to acquire up to a 90% interest in two high-grade tungsten projects in Uganda - the Bahati and the Buyaga projects. The company will finance the acquisitions, as well as exploration costs with the placement of new shares which is expected to raise AUD 2.25mn (USD 1.6mn). The Bahati project includes the Bahati, Nyanga and Bulunga mines, while the Buyaga includes the Buyaga mine. The Bahati mine was open in the 1950s and produced 269 tonnes of wolfram (tungsten) in 1951-1962, but recent studies found two exceptionally high-grade channel samples of tungsten trioxide. The Buyaga mine was discovered in 1969 and operated until mid-1970s, during which time it produced a total of 49 tonnes of wolfram concentrate. Blaze Minerals' CEO Mathew Walker said the acquisition gave the company direct exposure to "an advanced exploration opportunity in a stable, friendly mining jurisdiction".

• New orders, output and employment continue increasing amid strong demand
• Input and output costs rise on higher utility and raw material prices
• PMI suggests robust business activity continues in Q3

The Stanbic Bank Uganda PMI inched down to 55.0 index points in August from 55.5 in July, signalling continued improvement in business conditions in the private sector. New orders and output continued growing, reflecting strong customer demand and new clients. As a result of increased new business, companies increased their employment and input purchases. Input costs rose further, reflecting higher purchase prices, in particular for raw materials and utilities, and higher staff costs. Companies hiked output prices too. Business sentiment remained positive, supported by expectations of stronger customer demand and expanding customer base.

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The PMI data indicate that robust growth in private sector activity continued in Q3 2026. GDP growth is forecast to pick up from 6.7% in 2025 to 7.5% in 2026 and 8.2% in 2027 as the country starts producing oil later this year.

• Name reflects low sulphur content, Uganda's description as "Pearl of Africa"
• Naming allows marketing activities and engagement with potential buyers to start
• First oil is expected by end of 2026, peak production expected at 230,000 bpd

The Ugandan government named the country's blended crude oil grade Pearl Sweet ahead of the planned production start by the end of the year. The name reflects the low sulphur content and Uganda's description as the "pearl of Africa". The energy ministry said the name thus combines national identity with a commercial description, and its announcement aims to support future marketing activities and engagement with potential buyers. President Yoweri Museveni in turn said that it marks an important milestone in the development of oil and gas resources, adding that oil production is the first step, while refining, petrochemical industries and the use of associated gas for electricity generation would add further value and reduce the country's dependence on imported fuels.

First crude oil production is expected by the end of the year and reach a plateau around mid-2027. Production from the CNOOC-operated Kingfisher oilfield is expected to start first, to be followed by production from Total-operated Tilenga. Works on pipeline EACOP's construction are also progressing well and should be completed in time for first production. We note that peak production from the two fields is seen at 230,000 bpd. Of this, Tilenga, which is operated by Total, should produce 190,000 bpd and Kingfisher should produce 40,000 bpd. The oil reserves in the Lake Albert area are estimated at 6.65bn barrels, of which 1.65bn recoverable, and they are expected to last up to 30 years.

• PMI falls to 46.0 from 50.7 in July, marking the sharpest deterioration in business conditions since Sep 2024
• New orders and business activity return to contraction amid election uncertainty
• Input buying falls for first time since February as employment broadly stagnates
• Business confidence climbs to highest level since September 2016 on hopes for post-election recovery

Zambia's private sector contracted sharply in August, with the Stanbic Bank PMI falling to 46.0 from 50.7 in July, marking the sharpest deterioration in business conditions since September 2024. Election uncertainty and customer hesitancy weighed on demand, pushing both output and new orders into contraction.

Data Download

New orders declined at the fastest pace since August 2020, while output fell at its steepest rate in six years, with business activity contracting across all monitored sectors. New sales decreased in every sector except construction, where orders increased. Weaker demand prompted firms to cut input buying for the first time since February and at the fastest rate since March 2023, while employment remained broadly unchanged. Wholesale & retail and services were the only sectors to increase workforce numbers. Backlogs of work also declined at the fastest pace since February 2024, indicating reduced pressure on capacity.

Cost pressures eased, with total input costs falling for the first time in five months and at the fastest rate in almost four years. Lower fuel prices and favourable exchange rate movements against the US dollar reduced purchase costs, although wage bills continued to rise. Firms largely left output charges unchanged as lower selling prices in wholesale & retail and services offset increases elsewhere.

Despite the sharp deterioration in current business conditions, confidence strengthened to its highest level since September 2016. Firms expect demand and new orders to recover after the election period as uncertainty subsides, with greater economic stability supporting optimism. Stanbic Bank Head of Sales Musenge Komeki said the August PMI reflected a sharp contraction in the private sector as election uncertainty and cautious customer spending drove steep declines in output and new orders, while lower fuel costs and a stronger kwacha eased inflation pressures and confidence rose on expectations of stronger post-election demand and economic stability. President Hakahinde Hichilema secured 2,965,326 votes against 1,856,217 for NRPUP candidate Brian Mundubile in the Aug 13 polls, giving the incumbent a margin of over 60%.

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• International arrivals surpass 2mn despite 6.6% y/y decline to 1.03mn in H1
• Govt targets 2.5mn arrivals in 2026 and 5mn by 2031 as air connectivity and infrastructure improve
• Tourism revenue fell 26.5% y/y to ZMW 177.8mn in H1, highlighting need to convert arrivals into higher spending

Zambia surpassed 2mn international tourist arrivals in 2026 and remains on course to reach the government's 2.5mn target by year-end, according to Tourism Permanent Secretary Evans Muhanga. The latest update marks a strong acceleration from the 1.03mn arrivals recorded in H1, which were 6.6% lower y/y, with the ministry attributing the earlier weakness to Middle East geopolitical tensions, higher travel costs and disruptions to international air connectivity.

The recovery comes as government expands destination marketing and investment in tourism infrastructure, including road improvements in Livingstone, airport upgrades in Kasama, wildlife translocations and incentives for new hotels and conference facilities. Zambia recorded 2.3mn international arrivals in 2025, up from 2.2mn in 2024, meaning the 2026 target would represent another modest increase rather than a return to the rapid post-pandemic growth seen previously.

We note that while achieving 2.5mn arrivals would signal continued recovery, H1 tourism revenue declined 26.5% y/y to ZMW 177.8mn, showing that higher visitor numbers have not yet translated into stronger sector receipts. Zambia recorded 2.3mn international tourist arrivals in 2025, a 4.5% increase from the previous year. The outcome exceeded the 2024 arrivals of 2.2mn and reflects a steady post-pandemic recovery underpinned by policy reforms and improved sector confidence. The WTTC estimates the contribution to grow to ZMW 47.2bn (USD 2.45bn) by 2033. Govt aims to grow its tourism industry into a USD 1bn sector by 2031.

• Zambia's exports to China doubled over five years to a record USD 4.2bn
• Govt prioritises TAZARA and trade corridors to deepen market access
• Mining and infrastructure remain central to Zambia-China economic cooperation

President Hakainde Hichilema reaffirmed Zambia's commitment to deepening economic ties with China, citing a doubling of exports to a record USD 4.2bn over the past five years. He said the increase demonstrated the growing value of bilateral trade and highlighted opportunities to expand investment cooperation, particularly in copper and infrastructure. Hichilema also prioritised revitalising the TAZARA railway corridor linking Zambia to Tanzania and the Indian Ocean, saying greater investment could expand business opportunities and improve access to international markets. Chinese President Xi Jinping's Special Envoy Xian Hui welcomed the plans, describing TAZARA as an important symbol of the longstanding bilateral relationship. China remained a major partner in Zambia's mining and infrastructure sectors.

We recall that in September 2025, Zambia, Tanzania and China signed the long-awaited TAZARA Revitalisation Project Agreement worth USD 1.4bn, concluding more than a year and a half of negotiations. The programme aims to restore the Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA) through a comprehensive rehabilitation package covering the line from Dar-es-Salaam to New Kapiri Mposhi, an overhaul of major workshops, and maintenance of existing infrastructure. The plan also included procurement of 34 new locomotives, 16 passenger coaches and 760 wagons, representing the largest rolling stock renewal since TAZARA's creation in the 1970s. Originally funded by China's USD 500mn loan, it became known as the "Freedom Railway." Despite challenges, it remains a symbol of China's commitment to infrastructure development in Africa and a vital trade link between Zambia, Tanzania, and DR Congo. The deal aims to strengthen TAZARA's role in transporting minerals, competing with the U.S.-backed Angola railway Lobito corridor project.

• Special Rapporteur calls for release of political detainees and an end to criminalisation of dissent
• Treason charges against opposition leaders raise concerns over political and civic freedoms
• Appeal comes opposition figures Mundubile and Makebi Zulu remain detained

UN Special Rapporteur on the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and association Gina Romero has called on Zambia to immediately end what she described as a post-election crackdown and release political detainees, according to a latest statement. Romero said reports of widespread arrests, prolonged detention without formal charges, intimidation and violence indicated a deteriorating democratic and human-rights environment following the August general election. She specifically raised concern over treason charges against senior opposition figures, describing the development as a dangerous precedent.

The intervention comes after National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity (NRPUP) leader Brian Mundubile, his running mate Makebi Zulu and 16 others were charged with treason and detained. The case follows a security operation at Mundubile's residence in which former Cabinet Minister Mutotwe Kafwaya was killed. The Special Rapporteur also cited concerns over restrictions on peaceful assembly, political activity and the operating environment for civil society and journalists. She said authorities should protect civic space and ensure all detainees receive due process. Mundubile and Zulu's lawyers have meanwhile said the UN, SADC, the African Union and church organisations were being engaged in efforts to facilitate dialogue over the charges.