• Proposed project to be developed under PPP model

The government mulls developing a fully integrated USD 1bn solar-panel manufacturing plant in Zafarana, according to the local press. The complex is expected to cover the entire value chain and replace the import of renewable energy components with locally manufactured ones. The proposed project would be developed under a public-private partnership (PPP). No investor or timeline has been disclosed.

We note that there is a similar project that is currently under construction in New Alamein. Egypt hopes that local production will address the drain on FX reserves and the reliance on imported supply lines, as some 70% of solar project costs are tied to imported panels and cells.

• Govt and consortium work toward final technical, financial, and regulatory terms

An unnamed global consortium plans to build two integrated medical cities in the New Capital (USD 2.8bn) and New Alamein (USD 2.5bn), according to a cabinet statement. The proposed cities would include specialized hospitals equipped with advanced medical systems, as well as administrative, educational, and training facilities. They would provide preventive and therapeutic services while supporting medical education, research, and professional training. Under the proposed agreement, the state would receive a substantial share of the hospitals' beds for patients covered by Egypt's Universal Health Insurance System, health minister Abdel-Ghaffar said, adding the two projects are 100% foreign direct investment. Abdel-Ghaffar added that the projects would be based on successful international medical city models and would help establish Egypt as a regional centre for specialized healthcare and medical tourism.

PM Madbouly said that a joint working group - comprising representatives of the consortium and the relevant Egyptian authorities - will be formed to complete technical, financial, and legal negotiations and reach a final agreement before implementation begins.

Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan urge return to US-Iran accord at R4 meeting (Ahram)

Egypt net int'l reserves reach new record USD 56.3bn in July 2026: CBE (Ahram)

Egypt reviews USD 5.3bn FDI proposal for New Capital, New Alamein medical cities (Ahram)

Egypt drops multi-year operating requirement for industrial land transfers (Ahram)

10% global energy price rise could add USD 6bn to Egypt's annual fuel import bill: CI Capital (Zawya)

Damietta Port Handles 24 Ships as Cargo, Container Traffic Remains Strong (Sada Elbalad)

CBE forms inter-ministerial working group to develop Sustainable Finance Taxonomy (Daily News Egypt)

Egypt targets full local vehicle body manufacturing (Daily News Egypt)

• Government aims to lower public debt to 71-73% by mid-2029
• Egypt's debt management focuses on extending ATM, diversifying debt portfolio and investor base, utilizing asset-liability management
• Domestic budget sector debt amounted to 64.3% of GDP, external debt/GDP was 19.6%

Egypt's budget sector debt rose by a strong 8.8% q/q to EGP 17.85tn (USD 358bn or 83.9% of GDP) as of end-Mar, according to a new report by the finance ministry. The q/q increase was due to the rising stock of both domestic and external debt components, but the debt/GDP ratio actually declined from 86.8% three months earlier. We note that Egypt wants to lower debt to more sustainable levels and targets a 71-73% ratio by mid-2029. Egypt's debt management strategy focuses on extending the Average Time to Maturity (ATM) of debt, diversifying the budget sector debt portfolio through accessing new markets and the issuance of debt instruments in different currencies, while also utilizing Asset-Liability Management strategies and tools. Egypt also wants to reduce international issuances in favour of concessional and semi-concessional financing sources. The ministry of finance said Egypt remained committed to maintaining prudent fiscal policies, reinforcing macroeconomic resilience, and ensuring sustainable access to domestic and international financing markets.

Domestic budget sector debt - focus on extending ATM

Domestic budget sector debt rose by 7.1% q/q to EGP 13.68tn, accounting for three quarters of total debt and constituting 64.3% of GDP. As noted, the finance ministry has focused on extending ATM of new domestic debt and it has achieved some success. The ATM of new domestic issuances reached 1.1 years in Q2 2026 - the highest in 3 years - coming from 0.86 years in Q4 2025 and 1.04 years in the first quarter of 2026. The ministry started to shift the concentration of issuance from 3M T-bills to 9M and 12M bills. Further, the share of bond issuances in total domestic issuances increased by 4pps to 15% as of end-March. The ministry estimates that shifting to longer-term T-bills and bonds lowered gross financing needs by 1.65% of GDP in the quarter. The ministry said earlier this week that it has managed to lower gross financing needs by 5% of GDP for the whole of 2025/26 and projected gross financing needs at 51% of GDP in 2026/27.

Despite the concentration on T-bills investment by some sectors, the ministry of finance was able to diversify its investor base by:

• Issuing new debt instruments such as retail bond and Islamic Sukuk
• Issuing a 10-year floating bond along with the reissuance of 5-year Treasury bonds
• Enhancing the direct investment of retail in T-securities
• Increasing the activity of Fixed income and Money Market Funds.

This focus on diversifying its investor base has helped the government reduce borrowing costs and rollover risk, the ministry concluded.

External public debt

External budget sector debt inched up 0.2% q/q to USD 76.6bn, accounting for 19.6% of GDP. Multilateral creditors accounted for around 52% of total external budget sector debt, bilateral loans accounted for 13%, and international bond issuances represented 35% of the total. Egypt has managed to raise USD 4bn in debt issuances during 2025/26 and successfully met the budget targets despite geopolitical shocks. USD Eurobond yields rose by an average of 156bps along the yield curve between December 2025 and March 2026 due to regional insecurity and global uncertainty.

• Rescued hostages included 163 from Kwara State, 145 from Niger State
• Joint operation involved National Counter-Terrorism Centre, military, DSS, police

On Wednesday (Aug 5), the Nigerian government announced that security forces recently rescued 308 kidnapping victims in what is described as the country's largest single-day hostage rescue operation. Presidential spokesperson Bayo Onanuga said the victims included 163 people abducted during a February attack on Woro village in Kwara State and 145 others kidnapped in separate attacks in Niger State. The hostages were freed from a camp in the Kainji Lake National Park forest during a joint operation involving the National Counter-Terrorism Centre, the military, the Department of State Services and the police.

While welcoming the operation, president Tinubu called on security agencies to reinforce early warning mechanisms and improve community-based intelligence gathering to respond quickly to these incidents. Kidnapping for ransom by armed criminal gangs and bandits remains a major security challenge across northern and central Nigeria, where large areas of lightly governed forests have become safe havens for militant groups. According to a 2025 report by SBM Intelligence, Nigeria's kidnap-for-ransom industry has evolved into a structured profit-driven enterprise that generated an estimated USD 1.66mn between July 2024 and June 2025.

• Anti-graft agency says investigation into Osun accounts began in March 2026
• Governor alleges account freeze is politically motivated, linked to upcoming election

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) froze an Osun State government bank account this week, which has led to uproar and legal threats from state officials. The EFCC said it froze the state's statutory allocation account after uncovering suspicious transfers during an investigation into the alleged diversion of NGN 11bn in ecology funds, intervention funds and Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) allocations. The commission said the probe has been underway since March 2026 and already involved interviews with senior officials including the accountant-general. Citing the EFCC Act and Money Laundering Act, the EFCC instructed First Bank to prevent withdrawals from the account pending the conclusion of the investigation.

On Wednesday (Aug 5), the EFCC issued a statement strongly rejecting claims that the freeze is intended to influence the state's upcoming governorship election on Aug 15. Ogun State governor Ademola Adeleke in particular alleges that the EFCC action is an attempt to disrupt his administration. He further argues that the agency has no legal authority to direct First Bank to place a post-no-debit restriction on a state's accounts. Adeleke has directed the state's attorney-general to challenge the EFCC's actions.

Tinubu's troop pay hike divides opposition (Punch)

NBA faults EFCC as Osun account freeze sparks row (Punch)

Army places bounty on wanted ISWAP leaders (Punch)

FG targets mid-August for outstanding wage award payments (Punch)

NPC launches nationwide digital birth, death registration (Punch)

Adeleke Heads to Court as EFCC Freezes Osun Salary Account (ThisDay)

Tinubu Welcomes Rescue of 308 Abducted Citizens in Kwara, Niger States (ThisDay)

Healthcare Providers' Association Of Nigeria Rejects Proposed NHFRA Bill (ThisDay)

Mimiko Seeks Devolution Of Power, Insists Centralised Governance Fuelling Problems (ThisDay)

EFCC breaks silence on freezing Osun State Government Account (Nairametrics)

Court dismisses N100 million privacy breach suit against FCMB (Nairametrics)

• JSE is seeking secondary listing after planned Nigerian Exchange IPO
• Dual listing would provide access to South Africa's deeper capital markets

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) is actively pursuing a secondary listing for the Dangote Refinery once the company completes its planned initial public offering (IPO) on the Nigerian Exchange later this year (expected around October). JSE chief executive officer Valdene Reddy confirmed on Wednesday (Aug 4) that the refinery is included in a pipeline of potential listings in the second half of the year, spanning mining, fintech, property and construction. The planned IPO is valued at USD 5bn according to insiders and is expected to be the largest ever in Africa. Funds will support expansion of the refinery's facilities in Nigeria and the development of a similar refinery in Kenya. The IPO has reportedly also drawn interest from exchanges in Kenya, Egypt, Ghana and Rwanda. Experts say a dual listing would keep the primary listing in Nigeria while giving the company access to South Africa's deeper more liquid capital markets and a broader investor base.

• NCS reached 30% of its NGN 11tn annual revenue target in first 5 months
• NCS asked lawmakers to determine if net economic benefits are still delivered
• Import duty exemptions totalled NGN 34tn in 2025; 60% was for military hardware

The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) reported that it generated NGN 3.35tn in revenue in the first five months of 2026, achieving 30.3% of its approved NGN 11.07tn revenue target for the year. This leaves NGN 7.72tn to be collected over the rest of the year. The annual revenue target was recently approved by the Senate in July after the NCS exceeded its 2025 target by 10.2% and collected NGN 7.28tn. Comptroller-general Wale Adeniyi reported these figures on Wednesday (Aug 5) during a retreat for the senate committee on customs in Abuja. He however cautioned that nominal revenue growth can be inflated by exchange-rate movements and said lawmakers should judge revenue performance by underlying systems and efficiency gains from ongoing modernisation rather than headline collections alone.

At the same retreat, Adeniyi called on the National Assembly to review Nigeria's import-waiver and concession regime to determine whether the incentives continue to justify their fiscal cost and meet their stated economic objectives. The appeal follows his earlier disclosure that Import Duty Exemption Certificates approved by the federal government reached NGN 34tn in 2025, significantly reducing the agency's revenue potential. Nearly 60% of this was granted for military hardware. The balance covers CNG, electric and hybrid vehicles, healthcare equipment, industrial machinery, manufacturing inputs and food-import programmes. He is now asking legislators to assess whether these concessions still deliver net economic benefits relative to the forgone customs revenue.

• Slight rise is due to revaluation effects, reserves hit another record high
• BoI not present on forex market in July after buying USD 1.8bn in May-Jun

The foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Israel (BoI) rose slightly by USD 93mn in July to hit another historic high of USD 238.792bn at the end of the month, according to the latest data from the Bank of Israel (BoI). The slight increase was due to a positive revaluation effect that added USD 191mn to the reserves. This was partly offset by government transfers abroad in the amount of USD 73mn. The report shows that the BoI did not make interventions in the period after purchasing USD 1.8bn in May-Jun explaining that this was necessary to maintain the proper functioning of the markets.

Data Download

Forex reserves have increased by 4.0% since the end of 2025 and accounted for 37.2% of GDP at the end of July, the BoI said in the press release. They secured 27.5 months of imports at the end of July, according to our calculations, down by 1.4pps compared to end-2025.

• Expectations are positive and improving in construction and retail
• Industry, retail improve m/m in July, other sectors report stability

The expectations for the next month remained mostly upbeat in August with most of the values remaining positive with the exception of the hotels branch, according to the latest business confidence survey of the stat office (CBS). All expectations in the hotel industry were negative again in August and deteriorated compared to the previous survey. There were declines in the industry and most of the services components but the values remained positive, indicating prevailing optimism. At the same time, the expectations in construction and retail remained all positive and improved compared to the previous survey. The CBS also says there were improvements in industry and retail in July compared to June as well as stability in construction, services and hotels. The stat office also notes that the net balance on the volume of new works in the construction industries was positive in June after several months of being negative and that the net balance on the number of overnight stays by Israelis was positive for the first time since November 2025.

• Spending hits record high, cash withdrawals are highest since record-high August 2023
• Spending rise reflects prices increases, but also strong consumption

Credit card spending increased by 5.9% y/y to a new record high of NIS 54.9bn in July, according to data from the bank services company SHVA (Automated Banking Services) quoted by local business daily Calcalist. The increase comes on top of an already high base as July 2025 was a strong month as it recorded a recovery after the war with Iran in June last year. The previous record-breaking high of NIS 52.4bn was reached in May. Cash withdrawals from ATMs reached some 6bn, the highest level since August 2023, before the Gaza war started when a historic high was reached. The increases reflect strong consumption but also price hikes.

Looking at components, there were particularly high increases in spending on cafes and restaurants of 11.6% y/y to some NIS 4bn, spending on food rose by 6.6% y/y to NIS 6.6bn, spending on fuel rose by 6.9% y/y to NIS 2bn and this was partly on account of the higher price. Spending on domestic flights decreased by 12.3% y/y to NIS 485mn but this was mostly due to the return of foreign air carriers. Online purchases accounted for 58% of the total, which is similar to the average in the past one year.

Inside Netanyahu's Struggle to Rein in the Likud Extremists He Empowered (Haaretz)

El Al Bounces Back After Iran War Disruptions as Rivals Delay Return to Israel (Haaretz)

UN: More Than 360,000 Lebanese Remain Displaced as Israel-Lebanon Talks Continue (Haaretz)

Israel strikes Lebanon repeatedly as explosions heard in Hormuz (Jerusalem Post)

Lebanese PM accuses Hezbollah chief of 'serving Israel' ahead of talks (Jerusalem Post)

Every Oct. 7 terrorist will be 'brought to justice' says IDF Chief of Staff (Jerusalem Post)

Stabilization in foreign exchange, local and global: the dollar around 3 shekels (Calcalist)

It appears: Israel will not demand that Chevron part with one of its gas reservoirs (Calcalist)

Another day of declines in Tel Aviv: Enlight lost 6.5%; El Al jumped 15% (TheMarker)

[Likud officials] Erdan is expected to announce his new party tomorrow [Thursday], Edelstein will be placed in second place (TheMarker)

"The human resource situation in the industry without the Palestinian workers is better - our output has increased by 30%" (Globes)

Hundreds of soldiers in Rafah: The first Arab country [Morocco] to send troops to Gaza (Globes)

• Sovereign wealth helps Kuwait preserve fiscal flexibility
• Borrowing adds flexibility as budget deficits persist

Kuwait has launched a USD 4.25bn, three-year syndicated loan through the Kuwait Investment Authority, using the sovereign wealth fund as the borrower on behalf of the Ministry of Finance, according to news reports. Mizuho Bank, HSBC, Standard Chartered and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. are acting as mandated lead arrangers and bookrunners, with Mizuho coordinating the financing.

The transaction marks another step in Kuwait's return to international borrowing after years in which political disputes prevented the government from passing a new debt law. The country's new borrowing regime gives the government substantially greater flexibility to finance fiscal deficits and manage liquidity.

The timing is important because Kuwait's budget for the fiscal year that began on April 1 projects a deficit of KWD 9.8bn (USD 32.1bn). The budget assumes an average oil price of just USD 57.

The loan also illustrates how Kuwait can use its sovereign wealth fund to access international markets. KIA is not simply borrowing to finance investments. Instead, it is acting as the vehicle through which the government accesses external financing. That distinction matters because KIA's investment mandate and its role in managing Kuwait's accumulated wealth are separate from the government's annual budgetary financing needs.

The three-year maturity suggests that Kuwait is seeking relatively short-to-medium-term funding. A syndicated loan also allows the government to cultivate relationships with international banks and establish a financing benchmark before returning to the public bond market.

That strategy could become increasingly important if Kuwait's fiscal deficits persist into the future. The government has substantial financial assets, giving it considerably more room to manoeuvre than many sovereign borrowers. But drawing exclusively on accumulated wealth would reduce the capital available to generate future investment returns.

Therefore, borrowing allows Kuwait to preserve more of its sovereign assets while spreading the cost of today's fiscal shortfall over time. However, this approach also carries a cost. Kuwait will now pay interest on money raised despite possessing one of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds. The decision therefore reflects a trade-off between preserving long-term assets and accepting higher near-term debt-service costs.

Kuwait has already demonstrated strong international investor appetite. In July, it raised USD 6bn through a three-tranche sovereign bond.

• Israel's army said attacks is in response to alleged ceasefire breach by Iran-backed Hezbollah
• Escalation comes during seventh round of US-mediated negotiations in Rome aimed at advancing Israeli withdrawal

Israeli forces carried out strikes in southern Lebanon and issued a forced displacement order for residents of Mansouri village on Wednesday, escalating tensions despite the ongoing seventh round of US-mediated talks between Lebanon and Israel in Rome. The developments highlighted the fragile nature of the ceasefire framework, as diplomatic efforts to advance Israeli withdrawals and strengthen the role of the Lebanese Army continued alongside renewed military activity on the ground.

The escalation came as Lebanon and Israel held talks focused on implementing a framework agreed in Washington on June 26, which includes the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon through pilot zones, the deployment of the Lebanese Army to areas vacated by Israel and steps aimed at addressing security concerns, including Hezbollah's disarmament. Meanwhile, the Israeli army said the strikes were carried out in response to alleged ceasefire violations by Hezbollah, accusing the group of maintaining military activity in breach of the agreement. It ordered residents of Mansouri to immediately leave their homes and move at least 1,000 metres north of the village to open areas. The strikes marked the first such escalation and displacement order in weeks and underscored the challenges facing the Rome negotiations. Lebanese officials have been seeking progress on the pilot zone mechanism, under which Israel would gradually withdraw from occupied areas while Lebanese forces assume responsibility for security.

We remind that Lebanon entered the Rome talks seeking to demonstrate progress in the pilot zones, with the first phase covering three villages: Zawtar Al Gharbiyeh, Srifa and Froun. While Srifa and Froun were not occupied by Israel during the latest conflict, the Lebanese Army faces the difficult task of verifying Hezbollah's disarmament in areas where it assumes control. The escalation highlights the broader difficulty of translating the ceasefire framework into practice, as both sides remain divided over security arrangements and the pace of implementation. While diplomacy continues, developments on the ground show that maintaining calm along the Lebanon-Israel border remains a major challenge.

• Firms remain cautious about regional outlook despite stronger operating conditions
• Output and new orders increased further in July, supported by recovering customer demand despite ongoing regional uncertainty
• However, exports remained under pressure as regional instability and elevated shipping costs weighed on foreign demand

Lebanon's BLOM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.7 in July, up from 50.3 in June, remaining above the neutral 50.0 threshold for a second consecutive month and signalling a stronger expansion in private sector activity. The latest reading points to the fastest improvement in operating conditions since February, suggesting that domestic demand continues to support the recovery despite persistent regional instability and mounting cost pressures. The latest expansion was primarily driven by firmer local demand, while external markets remained under significant strain.

Data Download

Overall, stronger customer demand drove a second consecutive increase in new orders, with the pace of growth reaching a five-month high as businesses reported a recovery in client numbers. Private sector output expanded in line with the improvement in demand, also recording its strongest increase since February. However, export conditions remained challenging as elevated shipping costs and ongoing geopolitical tensions across the Middle East continued to weigh on overseas sales, leading to a steeper contraction in foreign orders compared with June. The data suggests that improving domestic demand is increasingly offsetting weakness in export markets. Furthermore, businesses responded to higher order volumes by increasing purchasing activity for the first time since October last year, while inventories expanded at the fastest pace in five months as firms sought to build precautionary stocks against further supply disruptions. At the same time, supplier delivery times deteriorated sharply, with delays reaching their worst level in nearly six years amid continued disruption to regional supply chains. The tightening supply environment pushed input cost inflation to a 40-month high, driven primarily by rising purchase prices, prompting companies to increase selling prices at the fastest pace since March 2023 in an effort to protect margins. Meanwhile, employment continued to edge lower only marginally despite a further increase in outstanding business, suggesting firms remain cautious about expanding payrolls.

Looking ahead, business sentiment weakened in July as companies grew more pessimistic about the outlook, although confidence remained above the lows recorded immediately after the outbreak of the regional conflict. Survey respondents continued to cite geopolitical uncertainty as the main factor weighing on expectations, suggesting that while domestic demand has supported the recent recovery, regional instability remains the principal downside risk to business activity in the months ahead.

• Budget priorities focus on spending control rather than introducing new tax measures
• Govt says reforms and major investment projects will continue regardless of election outcome
• Ministries and budgetary units have until Aug 31 to submit their proposals

The government has instructed ministries to strictly limit new recruitment, tighten control over operating expenditure and improve the efficiency of public investment as it begins preparing the 2027 budget, while signalling policy continuity ahead of September's parliamentary elections, Media24 informed. The government has circulated its annual budget framework letter, signed by PM Aziz Akhannouch, setting out the guidelines for drafting the 2027 finance bill. The document instructs ministries to strictly limit the creation of new budgeted positions, allowing recruitment only where justified by essential staffing needs for priority reforms. It calls for greater productivity through staff training, skills development and the reallocation of personnel between sectors and regions to address priority needs. The government also ordered ministries to tighten control over operating expenditure, limiting spending on equipment and administration to essential needs. It specifically targets reductions in water and electricity consumption, vehicle rentals, office rents, travel, accommodation, official receptions, conferences and other administrative events. Operating subsidies to public institutions should be limited to personnel and mandatory expenses and aligned with each institution's financial capacity. On public investment, ministries are instructed to prioritise projects linked to royal directives and agreements with international partners, complete ongoing projects before launching new ones, and improve budget execution to reduce the carryover of funds between fiscal years. Investment proposals should reflect ministries' actual implementation capacity, while subsidy payments should be tied to project progress and available cash resources. The government also called for faster regularisation of land for investment projects and lower spending on government vehicles and administrative buildings.

The framework letter identifies four strategic priorities for the 2027 budget: consolidating economic gains, accelerating territorial development and reducing regional disparities, strengthening the welfare state and continuing structural reforms while preserving fiscal balances. Beyond its fiscal guidance, the document also serves as a political statement. The first section highlights the government's achievements in areas including social protection, infrastructure, industry, healthcare, education, tourism, diplomacy and the energy transition, before turning to the technical budget instructions. A central message is policy continuity despite the parliamentary elections scheduled for Sep 23. The government indicates that reforms, royal projects and major investment programmes -- including transport infrastructure, water projects, desalination, healthcare, universities and preparations for the 2030 FIFA World Cup -- should continue irrespective of the next governing majority.

The finance ministry said it would aim to keep the budget deficit at 3.0% of GDP next year, while the budget planning will be based on the assumption of a 4.1% GDP growth. The ministries and budgetary units have until Aug 31 to submit their proposals to the government.

• New rules to allow investors to build housing on govt land in exchange for partial ownership of that land

The Council of Ministers approved regulatory amendments allowing investors to develop designated land and construct housing units for beneficiaries of housing development programs in exchange for partial ownership of that land. Under the new framework, the government will provide the land, and a private developer will then build housing with full infrastructure for eligible families. In return, the developer will receive a percentage of the land, which it can use or sell.

The ministry of municipalities and housing will issue executive regulations after coordinating with relevant authorities. The new policy aims to boost housing and encourage more private investments in development housing programs. The new framework follows a series of real estate reforms in recent years that aim to increase housing supply and lower prices. Over the past year, Saudi Arabia expanded the white land tax to cover vacant properties, raised fees on idle land up to 10%, and introduced executive regulations for a vacant property tax.

Saudi POS spending surges 33% to USD 4.34bn in one week (Zawya)

PIF-backed Lucid says preparing for 2027 production ramp in Saudi Arabia (Zawya)

Saudi investments expand 5.1% in Q1 2026 (Zawya)

Yemen's Houthis say they attacked Saudi oil tankers in Red Sea, Gulf of Aden (Zawya)

Saudi foreign minister meets with Egyptian counterpart in Amman (Saudi Gazette)

Saudi, US military commanders discuss enhancing defense cooperation (Saudi Gazette)

Al-Hogail: Cabinet decision boosts provision of housing units for eligible families (Saudi Gazette)

Push for regional HQs helps Saudi office market defy war impact (AGBI)

Flynas cuts losses despite drop in passenger numbers (AGBI)

• Food inflation eases to 6.6% y/y, despite continued double-digit increases in meat and fresh produce prices
• Core inflation declines marginally to 4.8% y/y, pointing to a gradual easing of underlying pressures
• Monthly inflation remains unchanged at 0.2%, driven by accommodation, healthcare and housing costs

Consumer price inflation eased to 5.1% y/y in July from 5.3% y/y in June, continuing the gradual moderation recorded since the beginning of the year, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INS) published on Wednesday (Aug 5). The slowdown was mainly driven by food and beverage inflation, which slowed to 6.6% y/y from 7.1% y/y. In contrast, inflation accelerated for restaurants and hotels to 6.5% y/y from 6.3% y/y and for tobacco to 1.3% y/y from 1.0% y/y.

Data Download

After a drop of 0.9% m/m in June, food prices declined by 0.6% m/m in July, reflecting decreases of 2.9% m/m for vegetables, 1.8% m/m for lamb, 1.3% m/m for poultry and 1.9% m/m for eggs. However, annual food price pressures remained elevated and broad-based. Lamb prices were 16.7% y/y higher than a year earlier, while fresh fruit rose by 13.8% y/y, beef by 13.7% y/y, poultry by 12.5% y/y and fresh fish by 11.6% y/y. Food oils and egg prices declined by 4.9% y/y and 3.8% y/y, respectively, and partly offset the broad-based meat price inflation.

Core inflation, excluding food and energy, eased marginally to 4.8% y/y from 4.9% y/y in June, indicating a slow moderation in underlying inflationary pressures. The divergence between unregulated and regulated prices remained pronounced. Unregulated prices rose by 6.2% y/y, compared with 1.1% y/y for regulated products, while unregulated food inflation stood at 7.4% y/y against only 0.2% y/y for regulated food.

On a monthly basis, the overall CPI rose by 0.2%, unchanged from June. Restaurant and hotel prices increased by 1.4% m/m, driven by a 7.2% m/m rise in accommodation services, while healthcare and recreation prices both rose by 0.7% m/m. Housing and household-energy prices increased by 0.6% m/m. Manufactured goods and services made the largest contributions to annual headline inflation, at 1.8pps and 1.4pps, respectively.

The July print suggests that the food-led moderation in headline inflation is continuing and is now accompanied by a marginal decline in core inflation. However, elevated unregulated food prices and persistent accommodation and services pressures indicate that the improvement is not yet broad-based. The data support the BCT's cautious hold at 7.0%, with the balance of risks still linked to food volatility, domestic services inflation and external energy price shocks.

• Budget to support investment, high-value sectors and more balanced regional development
• Government prioritises food, energy, water and pharmaceutical security
• Plans include public enterprise restructuring, tax equity and integration of the informal economy

Prime Minister Sarra Zaafrani Zenzri chaired a cabinet meeting on Tuesday (Aug 4) to discuss the broad guidelines of the 2027 finance bill, which the government views as a key instrument for implementing the 2026-2030 development plan. The bill will adopt a bottom-up, participatory approach and seek to generate growth by mobilising domestic resources, diversifying the economy and developing high-value-added sectors.

The government intends to make the budget more resilient to global crises and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the conflict in the Middle East. Priorities include strengthening food, energy, water and pharmaceutical security, reforming the healthcare system, accelerating digital transformation, restructuring public enterprises and stimulating investment.

The bill will also seek to reconcile stronger public finances with inclusive growth by improving tax equity, integrating informal activity into the formal economy and supporting balanced regional development. Finance Minister Michket Slama Khaldi presented an update on the execution of the 2026 budget and the assumptions underpinning the 2027 bill, but the government did not disclose specific fiscal targets or policy measures. The government did not release any details about fiscal execution so far in 2026. The 2026-2030 development plan set GDP growth targets of 3.3% this year and 3.8% in 2027.

• Govt-aligned NGO claims Sudan's civil war has allowed Egypt to store excess Nile waters
• Tigray escalation risks broader implications for regional security

The intensifying media campaign against Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is an attempt by Egyptian authorities to divert attention from their domestic issues, the President of the Ethiopian Institute for Public Diplomacy (EIPD) Yassin Ahmed told ENA in an interview published on Wednesday. The NGO is formally independent but its positions consistently align with government rhetoric, not only on the GERD but also on other key geopolitical questions such as Ethiopia's push for Red Sea access. Yassin also alleged that Egypt is claiming water scarcity while storing excess in the Aswan Dam, resulting from Sudan's inability to fully utilise its allocation due to the ongoing civil war. Demonizing Ethiopia's dam is a convenient tool used by Egypt to undermine Ethiopia's credibility as the country is making headway in convincing the international community of its legitimate rights, the EIPD head said.

The EIPD's statements come just days after the most serious escalation of tensions in Ethiopia's Tigray region since the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement. A new full-scale confrontation between Ethiopia's armed forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) looks increasingly likely, with TPLF-linked media claiming earlier this week that the Ethiopian army is mobilising troops to the Afar and Amhara regions. Renewed instability in the northern regions of the country could easily stretch beyond its borders, with some Ethiopian media outlets claiming that Eritrea aims to turn Tigray into a permanent buffer zone, while at the same time deepening its strategic and military alliance with Egypt to dissuade Ethiopia's Red Sea access ambitions.

• Two countries signed cooperation agreements but details have not yet been disclosed

President Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema paid a brief working visit to Guinea-Bissau on Tuesday (Aug 4) where he met with Guinea-Bissau's transitional president Horta Inta-á for a private meeting. Similarly to the circumstances of Gabon's 2023 military coup and temporary transitional government, Inta-á was installed after a Nov 2025 military coup that ousted the previous civilian leadership. Tuesday's private meeting between him and Nguema was followed by bilateral talks involving their respective delegations. According to Gabon's foreign ministry, the visit included the signing of cooperation agreements in areas of mutual interest aimed at deepening and diversifying ties between Libreville and Bissau. However, the details of these agreements are still vague at this time and no joint statement was announced following the visit. Nguema and Inta-á reportedly discussed political dialogue and bilateral cooperation, as well as continental and international issues.

• Well exceeded pre-drill reservoir expectations, will reduce need for diesel fuel
• CEO said project is expected to improve operations, support oil production over time

Vaalco Energy provided an operational update this week and said it has successfully started producing from the ETBNM-3 gas well in the North Tchibala area of its offshore Gabon fields. The company reported that reservoir quality exceeded pre-drill expectations and will now supply natural gas to run field equipment and generate power. This should significantly reduce the need for costly diesel fuel. The company is also reviewing two shallower rock layers nearby that may hold additional gas or light oil. According to CEO George Maxwell, the gas well will not directly increase oil sales but the lower operating costs and improved reliability should help existing wells produce more oil over time. Vaalco is one of the leading independent oil companies in Gabon where it operates the Etame Marine licence. Company production in Gabon averaged 7,516 bpd in Q1 2026, down slightly from 7,743 bpd in Q4 2025.

• Total estimated losses account for 1.5% of GDP
• IMF says transfer of gold purchase activities to GoldBod will help eliminate quasi-fiscal risks
• It calls for credible recapitalisation plan for central bank

The Bank of Ghana generated GHS 22bn (1.5% of GDP) losses from the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme (DGPP), the IMF said in its report on the final programme review with the country. It added that the MoU signed in July to formalise the transfer of DGPP activities from the central bank to GoldBod would help eliminate the quasi-fiscal risks. Under it, the Bank of Ghana's role will be limited to that of the fiscal agent of GoldBod, handling FX operations consistent with its FX operations framework, the IMF explained, adding that the GoldBod and the government will absorb all operational costs transparently, including them in the budget.

The disclosure about the GHS 22bn losses, which translate into about USD 1.75bn according to the graph in the IMF report, has reignited a debate about the gold purchase programme and criticism from the opposition, which demanded more details about the financing of the programme. The government defended the policy saying it was instrumental in its macroeconomic stabilisation efforts. With regard to the impact of the losses on the Bank of Ghana's balance sheet, the government has announced intentions to recapitalise it fully by 2032 but the IMF underlined the need to have a credible plan for that. A MoU on the recapitalisation is expected to be signed by the end of the year, the report said.

NPP's 'Democracy Under Attack' demonstration comes off today (Joy FM)

Ghana's per capita GDP growth has averaged 1.15% over 65 years - Prof Ackah (Citi Newsroom)

$1.7bn Gold Purchase Programme loss was accounting, not cash loss - Attah Issah (Citi Newsroom)

UPSA, 37 Military Hospital among 254 public institutions fined by RTI Commission over report delays (Daily Graphic)

GPRTU suspends planned transport fare increase after government's GH¢2 diesel price cut (Daily Graphic)

Mahama isn't suppressing free speech but the law will arrest you if you threaten his life - Felix Kwakye Ofosu (Class FM)

• Facility to support SME lending and strengthen capital base
• Board decision scheduled for 4 September

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) plans to provide KCB Kenya with a USD 150mn financing package to strengthen the bank's capital base and expand lending to micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), according to local news reports. The package comprises a USD 100mn loan from IFC's own account and up to USD 50mn to be mobilised from parallel lenders. The proposal is scheduled for consideration by the IFC board on 4 September.

In addition to the financing, IFC will provide advisory services to help KCB implement a sustainable finance framework. The institution said the transaction would provide financial additionality through a long-tenor financing structure and mobilisation of additional lenders, while supporting sustainable lending practices. KCB Kenya's loan book stood at KES 1.7tn at end-March, while lending to MSMEs reached KES 13bn in the first quarter.

KCB has increasingly relied on development finance institutions to support lending growth. In July, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development approved a USD 100mn facility for lending to women- and youth-led businesses and green enterprises, while British International Investment and the European Investment Bank have also extended financing to the lender in recent years.

• Executives accused of failing to report suspicious transactions
• Case relates to alleged theft of KES 363.4mn from investment firm

Kenya's Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions (ODPP) has approved criminal charges against the chief executives of three large commercial banks over allegations that they failed to report suspicious transactions linked to an alleged KES 363.4mn fraud scheme, local media reported. Reportedly, prosecutors approved a total of 120 charges under the Proceeds of Crime and Anti-Money Laundering Act following investigations into the alleged theft of funds from an investment company. The executives are accused of failing to report transactions that investigators believe involved proceeds of crime.

We note Kenya has been on the Financial Action Task Force's (FATF) "grey list" since February 2024 after committing to address strategic deficiencies in its anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing framework. The country is implementing an action plan that includes strengthening supervision of financial institutions, increasing suspicious transaction reporting, improving money laundering investigations and prosecutions, enhancing beneficial ownership transparency and licensing virtual asset service providers.

• Funds could become available by October, according to sources cited by Bloomberg
• Facility would help cushion Iran war and weather shocks

Kenya is seeking about USD 450mn in emergency financing from the World Bank to help cushion the economy from the impact of the Iran war and potential weather-related shocks, Bloomberg reported on 5 August, citing people familiar with the matter. According to the report, the government is finalising a Contingent Emergency Response Project (CERP), through which the Washington-based lender would provide the funds. The financing could become available by October, although both the amount and timing remain uncertain at this stage.

We note Kenya first disclosed in April that it was exploring emergency World Bank financing to mitigate the economic impact of the Iran conflict. Treasury officials at the time indicated the country could access up to around USD 600mn through the lender's rapid-response facilities, although the amount has since varied with local reporting suggesting anywhere between USD 300mn and USD 600mn. In July, the local Business Daily, citing the lender's operations manager for Kenya, reported the request had been delayed as discussions were ongoing over what expenditures the funding would support.

Tycoons in half of tenders keep names, office secret (Business Daily)

Cooking oil prices climb back to highs of 2022 crisis (Business Daily)

Three bank CEOs face charges in Sh363m fraud suit (Business Daily)

Linda Mwananchi Party? Registrar's 'U-turn' sparks fresh legal storm (Nation)

Ruto and Oburu summon ODM-UDA allied governors, MPs to plan for 2027 polls (Nation)

Gold rush: Mining turns remote Turkana villages into booming frontier town (Nation)

Opposition fractures force Uhuru, Kalonzo into emergency meeting (The Standard)

Government to reorganise State offices in bid to cut costs, improve public access (The Standard)

Trial and error: From education to health, Ruto's flip-flops spark uncertainty (The Standard)

Kenya's private sector growth hits 6-month high as economy recovers (The Star)

No Kenyan will be denied emergency care, Ruto says (Kenya Broadcasting Corporation)

MPs begins scrutiny of bills proposing sweeping education sector reforms (capitalfm.africa)

Policy gaps, financing hurdles slow Kenya's push to 100pc renewable power (capitalfm.africa)

• Package will support agriculture, transport infrastructure and youth resilience programs
• Parties discuss new 10-year partnership framework

The World Bank will provide Senegal with around XOF 340bn (EUR 518mn) in new financing, according to World Bank Vice President for Western and Central Africa Ousmane Diagana following a meeting with President Faye on 5 August. The financing agreements were due to be signed the same day with the minister in charge of the budget. The package will support agriculture, transport infrastructure and programmes to strengthen the resilience of young people and women.

The presidency said the World Bank had confirmed direct budget support for Senegal and would expand the use of results-based financing, describing the move as reflecting confidence in the government's reform programme. The two sides also agreed to deepen cooperation in lowering energy costs, accelerating the transition to solar power, strengthening food security, improving the business climate and modernising public financial management and governance. They further discussed a new 10-year partnership framework to guide future cooperation.

The announcement comes as Senegal continues discussions with the IMF on a new programme and the resolution of its misreporting case while seeking to restore financing from development partners.

• Senior police officers, an intelligence operative and an alleged political fixer face investigation
• Presidency announces action nearly ten weeks after receiving the commission's report

President Cyril Ramaphosa has cleared the Madlanga Commission's latest referrals for processing, with the cases now set to be incorporated into the work of the SAPS special investigations task team. The Presidency announced the step on Thursday (Aug 6), nearly ten weeks after the report was submitted to Ramaphosa on May 29, without explaining the delay. The commission's final report is due on Nov 16.

The commission recommended disciplinary proceedings and the immediate investigation of alleged criminal conduct involving four people. Shadrack Sibiya is the suspended deputy national police commissioner responsible for crime detection, one of SAPS's most senior officers. Witness G is a Crime Intelligence officer whose identity is protected, while Fannie Nkosi is a suspended sergeant who served in an organised crime unit. Brown Mogotsi is a North West businessman and self-described political fixer alleged to have operated as an intermediary between political, police and criminal figures.

The commission also called for an immediate investigation by the Inspector-General of Intelligence, or another authorised body, into an alleged off-the-books Crime Intelligence operation involving Mogotsi and Witness G. This raises the possibility that police intelligence structures, personnel or resources were used outside authorised command and oversight arrangements.

• Motsepe backed by 37% of respondents, more than twice Mbalula's 17%
• Support rises to 43% among ANC voters, although Motsepe has not declared his candidacy

First African black billionaire businessman Patrice Motsepe, who is the founder of African Rainbow Minerals (ARM), remains the public's preferred candidate to succeed president Cyril Ramaphosa as ANC leader, according to a national poll conducted by The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation (SRF) between Jul 8 and Jul 31. Motsepe was selected by 37% of registered voters, well ahead of ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula at 17% and deputy president Paul Mashatile at 10%. No other potential candidate received double-digit support. The survey covered 2,214 registered voters and used a 56% turnout model. The national results have a margin of error of 2.1pps at a 95% confidence level.

Motsepe's lead was even larger among black respondents, where he received 41% against Mbalula's 21% and Mashatile's 11%. Among ANC supporters, Motsepe led with 43%, followed by Mbalula at 23% and Mashatile at 8%. He was also the preferred candidate among DA voters (33%), compared with 12% for Mbalula and 6% for Mashatile.

Motsepe's national support has increased from 23% in Q4 2025, when he was only narrowly ahead of Mbalula at 19%. It rose to 39% in Q1 2026 as speculation about a possible leadership bid intensified and has since remained broadly stable. Motsepe has not formally announced that he will contest the ANC leadership at its Dec 2027 elective conference. The findings measure public preferences rather than support among ANC conference delegates, who will ultimately choose the party's next leader.

The same SRF poll found that national support for the ANC stood at 34%, only 2pps above its record low. The DA received 27%, the MK party 15% and the EFF 7%. Support for the ANC has also collapsed in Johannesburg, where it received only 18% support in Q2 2026 compared to 30% in Q1 and 34% in the 2021 local elections.

• Export forecast cut to 205.3mn cartons from 209.4mn but remains 0.9% above 2025 record
• Flood damage, port delays and Middle East shipping disruptions weigh on outlook

The Citrus Growers' Association (CGA) lowered its 2026 citrus export forecast to 205.3mn 15kg cartons from the pre-season estimate of 209.4mn. The 4.1mn-carton reduction represents a 2.0% downgrade, mainly reflecting flood damage in citrus-producing areas of the Western and Eastern Cape. Nevertheless, projected exports remain 0.9% above the record 203.4mn cartons shipped in 2025, indicating only marginal annual growth compared with the stronger expansion initially anticipated.

Domestic logistics constraints are adding pressure during the peak export period, with capacity constraints and delays reported at Durban Port. Around 95% of the national citrus crop is transported to ports by road because of the inefficient rail system, increasing costs and limiting options for growers. A 2025 study by the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy estimated that inefficient logistics imposed ZAR 5.27bn in direct and indirect costs on the citrus industry during the 2024 season.

External conditions also weakened the outlook as the conflict between the US and Iran has complicated shipments to the Middle East, which ordinarily receives about 20% of South Africa's citrus exports, while raising diesel and shipping costs. The CGA also warned that possible disruption to Red Sea routes and the Port of Jeddah could further restrict shipping options and weigh on demand in other markets.

South Africa's legacy media under siege as 171 eNCA jobs on the line (Business Day)

Defence pleads for R9bn as funding crisis cripples military readiness (Business Day)

Floods and Middle East conflict dent South Africa's citrus export outlook (Business Day)

Andrea Johnson pulled all stops to charge Masemola, Madlanga inquiry hears (Business Day)

Mining Council warns new beneficiation rules could backfire (Business Day)

Glencore dusts off SA coal plans as Transnet rail recovery gathers pace (News24)

Eskom Green eyes solar energy, battery storage next (News24)

Sasol's wartime windfall revives debate over coal's future (News24)

Explosive allegations: Ramsamy implicates Johnson in forgery in Crime Intelligence case (News24)

Parliament suspends NCC president Adams and MKP MP Skosana, docks salaries (News24)

Joburg garbage collection at a standstill as workers block Pikitup depots (Moneyweb)

Sasol flags full-year recovery as margins improve (Moneyweb)

NPA freezes millions linked to suspicious MultiChoice streaming operation in EC (Eyewitness News)

New protocol for former presidents: Dirco aims to avoid Zuma-Gupta repeat (Daily Maverick)

Impeachment committee agrees that Ramaphosa should testify (Daily Maverick)

• UNOC official says basic engineering works on USD 4bn project start
• Works on oil pipeline EACOP reach 91%, slightly behind schedule
• Slight delay attributed to Middle East crisis, Ebola outbreak

The final investment decision (FID) for the country's planned oil refinery is expected in February 2027, the Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU) said on X quoting Michael Mugerwa, who is general manager for refinery holdings at state-owned UNOC. He said that the basic engineering works have already started and they would wait for regulatory approvals before launching construction works. The 60,000-bpd refinery is set to be built by a partnership between UNOC and UAE's Alpha MBM Investments at a cost of about USD 4bn.

Meanwhile, the deputy managing director of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), JB Habumugisha, said that the project was now 91% complete against a planned progress of 94%, attributing the slight delay to disruptions caused by the Middle East crisis and the Ebola outbreak, which affected the delivery of equipment and the deployment of key personnel. He did not mention a completion date, but oil production is expected to start in H2 2026.

The USD 5bn 1,443km EACOP will link the Uganda oilfields to the Tanga port in Tanzania and transport 246,000 barrels of crude oil per day. Its shareholders include the Uganda and Tanzanian oil companies UNOC and TPDC with 15% each, TotalEnergies with 62% and CNOOC with 8%.

• New orders and business activity return to growth after two-month contraction
• Employment rises at fastest pace since November 2025 as firms boost capacity
• Business confidence climbs to highest level since December 2017 on stronger demand outlook

Zambia's private sector returned to growth in July, with the Stanbic Bank PMI rising to 50.7 from 49.9 in June. The latest reading moved back above the 50.0 threshold, signaling a marginal improvement in operating conditions and marking the first expansion in business conditions in three months. Business activity and new orders both returned to growth during the month, pointing to a modest recovery in demand at the start of the third quarter. Although the pace of expansion remained fractional, the latest survey suggested that business conditions had strengthened following the subdued performance recorded over the previous two months.

Data Download

New orders increased for the first time in three months, with firms attributing the improvement to successful advertising campaigns and the acquisition of new clients. At the sector level, agriculture and construction recorded growth in both output and new orders, while wholesale & retail and services continued to report weaker activity. Manufacturing firms experienced a decline in output despite a renewed increase in new business. Stronger demand encouraged firms to expand employment at the fastest pace since November 2025, largely through the recruitment of temporary workers to increase capacity. Purchasing activity also rose further as businesses sought to meet current demand and build inventories ahead of an expected improvement in future orders. Stocks of purchases increased for the fifth consecutive month, supported by another shortening in supplier delivery times, although the improvement in lead times was less pronounced than in previous months.

Input cost inflation accelerated during July as higher wage bills offset a decline in purchase prices, with firms citing motivational payments to employees while favourable exchange rate movements against the US dollar helped reduce purchasing costs. Businesses responded by increasing output charges after having lowered selling prices in June. Business confidence strengthened markedly during the month, reaching its highest level since December 2017 as firms expressed optimism that client demand and new orders would improve further following the elections. Stanbic Bank Head of Sales Musenge Komeki said the July PMI reflected a return to private sector growth, supported by stronger output, new orders, hiring and supplier performance, while improved exchange rate conditions helped ease purchase costs despite higher wage pressures.

• Less than one third of Zambia's 116 districts are yet to receive ballot papers
• Election watchdog claims stakeholders have been made aware of arrival times

All ballot papers for the Aug 13 general elections are expected to arrive in the country's electoral districts before the end of the week, as scheduled, the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) confirmed on Wednesday. The distribution started on Sunday, with the ECZ prioritizing the furthest northern regions of the country, to ensure potential delays are minimized. As of the time of the ECZ's statement on ZNBC, some 52% of all ballot papers had already been delivered, with 19% in transit and 29% expected to be sent out on Thursday. The ECZ claimed that it has coordinated the exact arrival time and the secure storage of ballot papers with all relevant stakeholders, ensuring a fully transparent process. At the same time, the election watchdog warned that pockets of election day violence a possibility, and that it expects lower turnout at affected polling stations.

Govt partially lifts ban on livestock imports from South Africa (News Diggers)

RDA completes 50% of Kasomeno-Mwenda road (News Diggers)

We're not afraid, says Mundubile as police use teargas to disrupt his rally (News Diggers)

HH corrupting voters by promising jobs, Zesco connections - Ex-energy minister (News Diggers)

We're proud to have competition in the election - HH (News Diggers)

Civil Society Organisations condemn electoral violence, cite evidence from viral videos of UPND cadres (Zambia Monitor)

Hichilema commissions hybrid energy plant in Central Province (Zambia Monitor)

ZANACO, FQM sign agreement to finance local suppliers under local content initiative (Zambia Monitor)

Govt reports gains in livestock and fisheries sectors (Zambia Monitor)

Zambia to benefit from AfDB natural capital financing initiative (Zambia Monitor)